PHL-SEA

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Old Mar 21, 19, 10:46 am
  #1  
_fx
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PHL-SEA

Current competition on this route is:
AA: flying old US airways planes that with no power or IFE -- total misery for a 5-6 hour flight
AS: a single flight, sometimes 2, often billed at a blatant premium over AA (sometimes as high as $200+) which people pay
DL is trying to cannibalize AS on almost all other routes from SEA. Any speculation why they don't get in the game for this one?
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Old Mar 21, 19, 10:52 am
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Originally Posted by _fx View Post
Current competition on this route is:
AA: flying old US airways planes that with no power or IFE -- total misery for a 5-6 hour flight
AS: a single flight, sometimes 2, often billed at a blatant premium over AA (sometimes as high as $200+) which people pay
DL is trying to cannibalize AS on almost all other routes from SEA. Any speculation why they don't get in the game for this one?
No idea why DL isn't flying the route, but if they did, they wouldn't be cannibalizing AS.
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Old Mar 21, 19, 10:59 am
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A quick random search shows that DL already services PHL from their other four hubs and some of those are on Delta Connections. So I'm no expert on routes but I'm sure Delta evaluates their sales on the route and while a nonstop might sell better than the current offerings, it's probably that using a takeoff slot, gate, etc. aren't worth it compared to sending a plane to ATL where the few Philly pax can go one way and all their KL/AF/DL international departures can fill widebodies.
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Old Mar 21, 19, 11:51 am
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DL doesn't fly SEA to DFW, CLT, or MIA either.

AS can defend SEA very well. But is incredibly limited on being able to strike back anywhere outside of SEA/PDX
Remember when AS tried to hit back at DL's initial expansion in SEA in SLC? Yeah, no one does because brand awareness for AS drops dramatically every mile further East of the Pacific.

AA doesn't have that problem. Bam, new planes on SEA/PHL, plus at least 1 frequency. And just for kicks AA starts MSP/PIT and MSP/LAX. If they stick great, if not they at least trashed DL's yields for ~6 months.
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Old Mar 21, 19, 12:01 pm
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Phl to either lax or sea would be a dream come true for me. I also wish they brought back the phl jfk route.
now that there arenít any international flights from phl it would help to justify the skyclub
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Old Mar 21, 19, 1:06 pm
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as others have said, directly or implicitly, ďa dream ... for youĒ and ďa profitable route for DLĒ arenít the same thing
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Old Mar 21, 19, 2:35 pm
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Originally Posted by jrl767 View Post
as others have said, directly or implicitly, ďa dream ... for youĒ and ďa profitable route for DLĒ arenít the same thing
Yes, but DL is pumping $$$ into SEA and likely operating several less-than-profitable routes in an attempt to gain market/mindshare (for example, SEA to various cities in Alaska/Canada). Given making $$ isn't their only goal here.. why can't they lose some money on a route I would benefit from? :-P
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Old Mar 21, 19, 2:55 pm
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Thereís no evidence that DL is defeating AS. AS has maintained market share leadership and T100s consistently show that AS leads DL in both load factor and yield with the exception of flights to strong DL hubs.

If anything, DL is retreating a bit in some places (e.g. FAI is now back down to an ERJ for half of the year, no more red eye to MCO during the summer) and will be exiting a couple Canadian markets later this year (YYJ/YEG).

Last edited by ab2013; Mar 21, 19 at 3:06 pm
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Old Mar 21, 19, 3:07 pm
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Originally Posted by _fx View Post
Yes, but DL is pumping $$$ into SEA and likely operating several less-than-profitable routes in an attempt to gain market/mindshare (for example, SEA to various cities in Alaska/Canada). Given making $$ isn't their only goal here.. why can't they lose some money on a route I would benefit from? :-P
A lot of the crazy routes out of SEA to AS and Canada have been quietly removed or scaled back to summer seasonal only. And most of those routes are sub 750 miles so even if they lost $ it wasn't big money.

Flying 1/2 full planes or for sub $200 2,300 miles to PHL is a very different story requiring a much larger aircraft.

I could see this one day when DL gets their A-220 fleet up to 90 or so
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Old Mar 21, 19, 3:47 pm
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I think you have to view Delta position in Seattle as trying to compete hard on TPAC/TATL and to Hawaii. It's why they serve all 4 Hawaii airports out of SEA and KIX/PEK/ICN/NRT. Would flying PHL-SEA allow passengers to more effectively fly TPAC/Hawaii with Delta? No it wouldn't. They can connect through DTW/ATL and spend more time on a long haul aircraft.
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Old Mar 21, 19, 4:46 pm
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Originally Posted by Halloweverybody View Post
Phl to either lax or sea would be a dream come true for me. I also wish they brought back the phl jfk route.
now that there arenít any international flights from phl it would help to justify the skyclub
I fly into PHL monthly and that SkyClub is nice but Almost constantly packed. I think by making it so small justifies its existence.
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Old Mar 21, 19, 5:09 pm
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Originally Posted by ab2013 View Post

If anything, DL is retreating a bit in some places (e.g. FAI is now back down to an ERJ for half of the year, no more red eye to MCO during the summer) and will be exiting a couple Canadian markets later this year (YYJ/YEG).
You recognize that in 2014 DL said they were going to have 150+ peak day flights by summer 2017, they had that many flights, and had 174 for summer '18, right? You recognize that they add 2x the Available Seat Miles just by upgauging a couple of SEA-Asia flights to 339s vs. cutting YYJ and YEG? Port of Seattle passenger share data show a 4.7 point decline for AS/QX/VX 2013 to 2018. Delta/Delta Connection added 5.4 points of share. Revenue Passenger Miles (which we don't see U.S. carriers report by hub in their quarterly SEC filings )would be a much better measure of share. A Q400 219 miles Seattle-Kelowna doesn't have the revenue potential of a 333 SEA-AMS.

Be happy for the price competition and the 2-class E75s Delta forced AS to add to the fleet. If that's failure in SEA, other carriers would take it all day long.

https://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/a...ska-vs-delta-0
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Old Mar 21, 19, 5:26 pm
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AA is definitely the reason here. If it was just AS on the route they'd might have a go but AA is an issue.

Could easily add planes in addition to stronger feed on the PHL side.
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Old Mar 21, 19, 7:14 pm
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Originally Posted by Halloweverybody View Post
Phl to either lax or sea would be a dream come true for me. I also wish they brought back the phl jfk route.
now that there arenít any international flights from phl it would help to justify the skyclub
oh god the PHL-LAX flight was a disaster. i've been on overseas flights that have felt shorter
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Old Mar 21, 19, 9:21 pm
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme View Post
You recognize that in 2014 DL said they were going to have 150+ peak day flights by summer 2017, they had that many flights, and had 174 for summer '18, right? You recognize that they add 2x the Available Seat Miles just by upgauging a couple of SEA-Asia flights to 339s vs. cutting YYJ and YEG? Port of Seattle passenger share data show a 4.7 point decline for AS/QX/VX 2013 to 2018. Delta/Delta Connection added 5.4 points of share. Revenue Passenger Miles (which we don't see U.S. carriers report by hub in their quarterly SEC filings )would be a much better measure of share. A Q400 219 miles Seattle-Kelowna doesn't have the revenue potential of a 333 SEA-AMS.

Be happy for the price competition and the 2-class E75s Delta forced AS to add to the fleet. If that's failure in SEA, other carriers would take it all day long.

https://www.seattlebusinessmag.com/a...ska-vs-delta-0
I do recognize that, but based on the current schedule, I think we might be looking at a reduced number of departures for DL at SEA. DLís domestic ASM in SEA is very seasonal, and the available data is clear about DLís relative underperformance compared to AS, especially during the winter off-peak months.

The cheap plane tickets - which Iím very happy about - are not sustainable in the long run and only possible when DLís cash cow hubs (e.g. ATL/DTW/MSP/SLC) continue to print the cash to fund DLís coastal ops (SEA/BOS/NYC/LA). And itís well-known that DL has among the highest CASM among the US airlines.

Last edited by ab2013; Mar 21, 19 at 9:26 pm
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