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DOT starts new proceeding for added HND slots

Old Feb 21, 2019, 2:36 pm
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Here are the applications for flight slots at HND (12 slots available to US carriers):

UA (six slots requested)
HND - EWR/ORD/IAD/LAX/IAH/GUM
Application of United Airlines (508 pages)
Answer of United Airlines (154 pages) "United's proposal will make the best use of scarce Haneda slots and provide the greatest public benefits, and No other carrier has demonstrated the benefits of its proposals more than United"
Consolidated reply of United Airlines (148 pages) "Our proposal is best, and the other guys misrepresented the facts."

HA (three slots requested)
HND - HNL (3x daily)
Application of Hawaiian Airlines (118 pages)
Answer of Hawaiian Airlines (111 pages) "Why HA is best, here's what's wrong with DL's request, here's what's wrong with UA's request, and here's what's wrong with AA's request"
Consolidated Reply of Hawaiian Airlines (33 pages) "Our proposal is best, and here's what's wrong with DL, UA and AA's proposals"

AA (four slots requested)
HND - DFW/LAX/DFW/LAS (DFW is AA's first and third preference)
Application of American Airlines (135 pages)
Answer of American Airlines (106 pages) "Only AA adds competition, DL squanders scarce resources, and don't reward UA further"
Consolidated Reply of American Airlines (111 pages) "Here's why DFW, LAX and LAS should be selected, and UA's baseless attacks on AA distract from UA's poor proposal"

DL (six slots requested)
HND - SEA/DTW/ATL/PDX/HNL/HNL (HNL Is DL's fifth and sixth preference)
Application of Delta Air Lines (199 pages)
Answer of Delta Air Lines (90 pages) "DL's proposal maximizes public benefits, DL's proposal should be granted in full before UA, AA, and HA are considered, and DL deserves the slot times it has requested"
Reply of Delta Air Lines (75 pages) "Answers from UA, AA and HA underscore why DL's proposal should be granted in full, and B6's answer is irrelevant to this proceeding"

And the odd filing:
Answer of Jetblue Airways Corporation (6 pages) "If it is important for DOT to grant DL's application for slots at HND, it is equally important to allow JetBlue to enter LHR and AMS"
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DOT starts new proceeding for added HND slots

Old Feb 22, 2019, 10:09 am
  #61  
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Joshua C's post was merged into an existing Haneda slots thread.
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 10:12 am
  #62  
 
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Originally Posted by ab2013
Surprised to see DL list HNL twice - didn't they knock HNL-NRT down to one daily from two?
It was 4 x daily HNL-NRT (2-3x 747, 1-2x A330). So yes, it has went down some 6 fold capacity wise over the last few years, as it was also downgraded to the tiny 767-300.

In the DOT filing DL had not a single comment about why it now wants to add a bit more (still nothing close to how much it was just a few years ago) capacity after having kept cutting so hard for so long. I mean that is by far the largest US-Japan market, and I am surprised DL did only two slots (not 3) and as last two, vs. as #1 and #3 or #2 and #4 , something like that, as would have been more logical given the market demands. But DL's past history of continually cutting capacity won't work in its favor.
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 2:18 pm
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Originally Posted by aviatorzz
With the recent events of watching MNL and SIN drop from 744/777 down to the 763 and the dropping of routes exNRT such as GUM/BKK/ICN/HKG/HNL (from 3 to 1) I really can't imagine DL keeping those routes in the event DL gets awarded 4 slots at HND. HNL can be captured with the JV with KE nonstop HNL-NRT and SIN could just as easily be flown as a connection with KE via ICN.

DL only has four NRT flights they would want shifted to HND exUSA with ATL/SEA/PDX/DTW. They settle for four and shift all flying to HND, that would be a very plausible idea that it could mean the end for NRT flying.
Delta will close the NRT base because it is expensive to operate. They will probably launch SEA-SIN and just dump MNL all together
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 2:38 pm
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Originally Posted by RealHJ
In the DOT filing DL had not a single comment about why it now wants to add a bit more (still nothing close to how much it was just a few years ago) capacity after having kept cutting so hard for so long.
Uh, yes it does - page 10 of the application document - in big bold headline:

Delta Needs Two Haneda Slots for Honolulu service to provide meaningful competition in the Top US-Tokyo Demand Market

- United/ANA and prospective Hawaiian/JAL JVs would operate effective duopoly in Hawaii, Delta can provide meaningful competition with two Honolulu - Haneda slot awards

Diagram of Potential HNL-HND Slot Allocation:
ANA/UA JV: 2 total (1 from 2016 day-time allocation, and 1 from 2020 potential day-time allocation)
JL/HA ATI pending approval: 4 total (1 from 2016 day-time allocation; 1 Night-time; 2 from 2020 potential day-time allocation)
Delta: 2 total (2 from potential 2020 daytime allocation)
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 3:35 pm
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Originally Posted by ClipperDelta
DL will likely continue to receive more pairs than either one as the DOT has always considered these awards in the context of the existing JVs that AA and UA have with JL and NH respectively. Given that the US carriers are getting 12 slot pairs, this means that the Japanese side is going to get 12 as well for new US-Japan daytime flights and you can bet that DL will argue (and likely be somewhat successful at it) that the distribution needs to consider that AA and UA will benefit from those 12 as well.



I agree with the above scenario. Given that DL got 50% of the slots the last round, I don't see why they wouldn't apply for at least 6 of the 12 and argue that they need those to compete effectively with the two JVs. Also, these slots are for US-Japan nonstops only and not for any third party countries, so even if they wanted to, they couldn't apply for HND-SIN/MNL as part of the 12 anyway, which means MNL and SIN from TYO will be toast. So in applying for the 12 they can essentially move all of the other NRT-US flights over, and even apply for a new one - JFK.
I agree. I think that DL will end up getting all of the slots they applied for and HA will get 2x daily instead of 3 they applied for. AA will most likely get LAS and 1x DFW. UA will get EWR, IAD but I dont know about a third one because the other slots they applied for have service through ANA. Maybe ORD has more of a chance than LAX? But I could see Delta getting all 6 based on the argument in their filing.
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 3:37 pm
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Originally Posted by ClipperDelta
Uh, yes it does - page 10 of the application document - in big bold headline:

Delta Needs Two Haneda Slots for Honolulu service to provide meaningful competition in the Top US-Tokyo Demand Market

- United/ANA and prospective Hawaiian/JAL JVs would operate effective duopoly in Hawaii, Delta can provide meaningful competition with two Honolulu - Haneda slot awards

Diagram of Potential HNL-HND Slot Allocation:
ANA/UA JV: 2 total (1 from 2016 day-time allocation, and 1 from 2020 potential day-time allocation)
JL/HA ATI pending approval: 4 total (1 from 2016 day-time allocation; 1 Night-time; 2 from 2020 potential day-time allocation)
Delta: 2 total (2 from potential 2020 daytime allocation)
Why would UA only get 1? Wouldnt they get 2-3 seeing as theres 12 slots to fill. And DL would definately get more than 2
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Old Feb 22, 2019, 3:42 pm
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Originally Posted by ClipperDelta
Uh, yes it does - page 10 of the application document - in big bold headline:

Delta Needs Two Haneda Slots for Honolulu service to provide meaningful competition in the Top US-Tokyo Demand Market

- United/ANA and prospective Hawaiian/JAL JVs would operate effective duopoly in Hawaii, Delta can provide meaningful competition with two Honolulu - Haneda slot awards

Diagram of Potential HNL-HND Slot Allocation:
ANA/UA JV: 2 total (1 from 2016 day-time allocation, and 1 from 2020 potential day-time allocation)
JL/HA ATI pending approval: 4 total (1 from 2016 day-time allocation; 1 Night-time; 2 from 2020 potential day-time allocation)
Delta: 2 total (2 from potential 2020 daytime allocation)
Where does this explain why did DL downsize by a factor of approximately 6 fold over the six years in that very same TYO-HNL market (it's current HNL-NRT routes from 4x 747/A330 to 1x767)?

DL is not addressing the elephant in the room: that it has been rapidly shrinking both its footprint and number of seats in the market.

It's the largest TYO-US market hands down, period. But DL has been shrinking massively the last few years. So why does it want HND slots, when while other airlines are adding capacity at NRT DL is removing it, and DL has little to no meaningful connections to offer at HND (unlike at NRT)?
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Old Feb 23, 2019, 5:54 am
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Originally Posted by RealHJ
Where does this explain why did DL downsize by a factor of approximately 6 fold over the six years in that very same TYO-HNL market (it's current HNL-NRT routes from 4x 747/A330 to 1x767)?

DL is not addressing the elephant in the room: that it has been rapidly shrinking both its footprint and number of seats in the market.

It's the largest TYO-US market hands down, period. But DL has been shrinking massively the last few years. So why does it want HND slots, when while other airlines are adding capacity at NRT DL is removing it, and DL has little to no meaningful connections to offer at HND (unlike at NRT)?
Retirement of 747s, deployment of higher capacity aircraft elsewhere, market chances since KE JV, etc. DL has every right to rebuild it if they want to, and HND is a perfect way to begin a new Asian strategy alongside the KE JV.
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Old Feb 23, 2019, 4:31 pm
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Does DOT take into account that UA/AA will be adding new service to HND where as DL just wants to cut NRT flights and move them to HND?

I imagine with DL, you either give just 1 or 2 or give them all they asked for because they can't realistically cut Tokyo flights to 2 a day from all hubs, but if you give them 3 or 4, they will just take what they got, cut all flights to NRT, and issue a grand press release about how the government is unfair and not getting the slots they needed forces them to cut all additional flying to Tokyo. Heck, they got MSP-HND by threatening to cut service.
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Old Feb 23, 2019, 11:48 pm
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UA is a partner with ANA. AA is a partner with JAL. DL has no partner in Japan. The DOT should recognize this and issue the permits to DL.
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Old Feb 24, 2019, 6:30 am
  #71  
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I'm not sure if someone else has said this as I don't have time to read through five pages of comments, but I'm curious what happens to Delta's last two intra-Asia routes, Manila and Singapore, if they get approval from the Department of Transportation.

I love Narita, if only because of the lounge and the excellent Delta staff who work there. Hopefully, all of the staff would be transferred to Haneda and a proper Sky Club would be constructed. Regardless, if Delta gets approval this is the end of an era; not just for Delta's presence at Narita, but also United because they're proposing moving flights over to HND from NRT.

The American Lake: RIP.

It's also kind of amazing that Delta isn't proposing a return to New York from Tokyo, if it gets HND slots.
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Old Feb 24, 2019, 6:38 am
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Originally Posted by hockeyinsider
I'm not sure if someone else has said this as I don't have time to read through five pages of comments, but I'm curious what happens to Delta's last two intra-Asia routes, Manila and Singapore, if they get approval from the Department of Transportation.

I love Narita, if only because of the lounge and the excellent Delta staff who work there. Hopefully, all of the staff would be transferred to Haneda and a proper Sky Club would be constructed. Regardless, if Delta gets approval this is the end of an era; not just for Delta's presence at Narita, but also United because they're proposing moving flights over to HND from NRT.

The American Lake: RIP.

It's also kind of amazing that Delta isn't proposing a return to New York from Tokyo, if it gets HND slots.
If Delta moves to Haneda, MNL and SIN have three options (in order of likelihood, IMO):

1. Terminate

2. Migrate to SEA/LAX direct

3. Move to ICN
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Old Feb 24, 2019, 6:48 am
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Originally Posted by jrkmsp


If Delta moves to Haneda, MNL and SIN have three options (in order of likelihood, IMO):

1. Terminate

2. Migrate to SEA/LAX direct

3. Move to ICN
California has the largest Filipino-American diaspora so Los Angeles–Manila would make the most sense. Honolulu–Manila could work too, as the Filipino population in Hawaii is also quite significant. I think it's the second-largest at least in the actual number. If you did as a percentage of the total population then probably Guam and Hawaii would have the largest communities and, theoretically, the highest demand for a Manila flight.
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Old Feb 24, 2019, 8:37 am
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Originally Posted by jrkmsp


If Delta moves to Haneda, MNL and SIN have three options (in order of likelihood, IMO):

1. Terminate

2. Migrate to SEA/LAX direct

3. Move to ICN
I believe they could also look at moving to KIX/NGO. Delta used to run DTW-NGO-MNL, if they want to keep serving the Philippines, this could be an option.
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Old Feb 24, 2019, 9:09 am
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Originally Posted by WidgetTravels
I believe they could also look at moving to KIX/NGO. Delta used to run DTW-NGO-MNL, if they want to keep serving the Philippines, this could be an option.
They could do this. The challenge becomes that unlike NRT, only DTW has flights from the mainland to NGO, not ATL/SEA/etc. This means that the NGO-MNL leg is comprised entirely of Japanese based pax + pax on the DTW-NGO leg. So unless you are selling a lot of onward tickets sold to Japanese pax, if DL is going to operate DTW-NGO-MNL... they might as well just operate DTW/SEA/orLAX-MNL direct.

Swap out DTW for SEA on KIX, and MNL for SIN and you can make the same arguments for other shifting of the 5th freedom routes to NGO or KIX.

Basically, it would require a combination of lighter loads on the NorthAmerican-KIX/NGO load, coupled with good Japanese sales to SIN/MNL to make it worthwhile. But maybe that was the grand plan all along, considering the HKG drop and SEA-KIX add. NGO/KIX provide the opportunity for two onward routes, and DL chose MNL and SIN via SEA/DTW.



Last edited by kavok; Feb 24, 2019 at 9:15 am
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