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Old Feb 21, 2019, 2:36 pm
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Here are the applications for flight slots at HND (12 slots available to US carriers):

UA (six slots requested)
HND - EWR/ORD/IAD/LAX/IAH/GUM
Application of United Airlines (508 pages)
Answer of United Airlines (154 pages) "United's proposal will make the best use of scarce Haneda slots and provide the greatest public benefits, and No other carrier has demonstrated the benefits of its proposals more than United"
Consolidated reply of United Airlines (148 pages) "Our proposal is best, and the other guys misrepresented the facts."

HA (three slots requested)
HND - HNL (3x daily)
Application of Hawaiian Airlines (118 pages)
Answer of Hawaiian Airlines (111 pages) "Why HA is best, here's what's wrong with DL's request, here's what's wrong with UA's request, and here's what's wrong with AA's request"
Consolidated Reply of Hawaiian Airlines (33 pages) "Our proposal is best, and here's what's wrong with DL, UA and AA's proposals"

AA (four slots requested)
HND - DFW/LAX/DFW/LAS (DFW is AA's first and third preference)
Application of American Airlines (135 pages)
Answer of American Airlines (106 pages) "Only AA adds competition, DL squanders scarce resources, and don't reward UA further"
Consolidated Reply of American Airlines (111 pages) "Here's why DFW, LAX and LAS should be selected, and UA's baseless attacks on AA distract from UA's poor proposal"

DL (six slots requested)
HND - SEA/DTW/ATL/PDX/HNL/HNL (HNL Is DL's fifth and sixth preference)
Application of Delta Air Lines (199 pages)
Answer of Delta Air Lines (90 pages) "DL's proposal maximizes public benefits, DL's proposal should be granted in full before UA, AA, and HA are considered, and DL deserves the slot times it has requested"
Reply of Delta Air Lines (75 pages) "Answers from UA, AA and HA underscore why DL's proposal should be granted in full, and B6's answer is irrelevant to this proceeding"

And the odd filing:
Answer of Jetblue Airways Corporation (6 pages) "If it is important for DOT to grant DL's application for slots at HND, it is equally important to allow JetBlue to enter LHR and AMS"
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DOT starts new proceeding for added HND slots

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:03 pm
  #31  
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare;30758093[left
You should brush up on your Delta history. They ran away from PDX around 2010 until the airport threw some money at them to come back. You don't run away from a profitable flight.[/left]
The world economy and global marketplace were completely different in 2009 versus now. And despite the tsunami that hit Japan in March 2011 and really put a dent in Japan's economy, DL still maintained PDX-NRT, and that tsunami occurred about a year after the PDX-NRT subsidy had ended in Spring 2010.
ab2013 and hi55us like this.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:11 pm
  #32  
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Originally Posted by BenA
If DL doesn’t get a slot for PDX, though, I expect PDX-NRT to convert to a PDX-ICN flight. Not ideal for the corporate O&D traffic they currently serve to Japan, but the economics of the route should be much more viable with a vibrant KE connecting hub on the other side; it’s not like PDX residents have a lot of alternatives anyway.
If PDX-NRT goes away and isn't replaced with PDX-HND, PDX residents would also have little reason to remain with DL/SkyTeam to get to TYO though and that traffic would likely begin to split among other carriers/alliances. It DL doesn't get PDX-HND and decides to drop PDX-NRT altogether, it also wouldn't surprise me if another carrier at NRT (ANA or JAL) then tries to launch PDX-NRT to go after the corporate traffic that currently utilizes and sustains PDX-NRT.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:33 pm
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
The world economy and global marketplace were completely different in 2009 versus now. And despite the tsunami that hit Japan in March 2011 and really put a dent in Japan's economy, DL still maintained PDX-NRT, and that tsunami occurred about a year after the PDX-NRT subsidy had ended in Spring 2010.
Yes, and IIRC they never even paused the route. They merely threatened to cut it.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:33 pm
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If DL exits NRT altogether wouldn't they still serve MNL? From DTW-NGO-MNL?
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:35 pm
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NGO-MNL tag-on ended some years ago ... its just a daily 767 from NRT right now.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:52 pm
  #36  
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme
You should brush up on your FAA route subsidy rules. Subsidies can't continue more than 24 months. If PDX-NRT weren't making a meaningful contribution it would have been killed years ago.
We will find out. If there's any west coast city that can do without an Asia flight, it's Porand. If you pass gas hard enough it will land you into Seattle. .
Last edited by readywhenyouare; Feb 9, 2019 at 2:13 pm
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 1:59 pm
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After all of Delta's reductions, they still fly PDX-NRT. Why? Its the largest O&D international route ex-PDX and there is no competition. Makes little sense to cut it. If ANA or JAL announced a nonstop flight to PDX, you bet Delta would cease the route pretty quickly. But they haven't. Why? Because the traffic between Portland and Tokyo is large enough for a daily nonstop flight but only one. Two daily flights between the two cities would put tremendous pressure on Delta and its yields would dry up. PDX-ICN, despite being smaller in total demand, would work in Delta's system due to the DL-KE JV. Eventually I see Delta adding this as the DL/KE JV matures. I don't see Delta wanting to let either ANA/JAL take over the largest O&D market for PDX. Delta applying for PDX-HND would tell you everything you need to know how Delta is serious about getting out of NRT and not ceding Portland-Tokyo traffic to anyone else.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 2:17 pm
  #38  
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Originally Posted by Longboater
After all of Delta's reductions, they still fly PDX-NRT. Why? Its the largest O&D international route ex-PDX and there is no competition. Makes little sense to cut it. If ANA or JAL announced a nonstop flight to PDX, you bet Delta would cease the route pretty quickly. But they haven't. Why? Because the traffic between Portland and Tokyo is large enough for a daily nonstop flight but only one. Two daily flights between the two cities would put tremendous pressure on Delta and its yields would dry up. PDX-ICN, despite being smaller in total demand, would work in Delta's system due to the DL-KE JV. Eventually I see Delta adding this as the DL/KE JV matures. I don't see Delta wanting to let either ANA/JAL take over the largest O&D market for PDX. Delta applying for PDX-HND would tell you everything you need to know how Delta is serious about getting out of NRT and not ceding Portland-Tokyo traffic to anyone else.
I agree that PDX-ICN would be a good fit. But you are wrong about Delta never letting go of Tokyo. They left PDX-Toyko twice already. What makes you think they would hesitate to do it again? I'm the only one presenting any actual facts. Delta has left the route twice already. You can speculate all you like but the precedent is there. There is zero feed on either end of that flight. Back when Delta partnered with Alaska it made sense because passengers could connect to AS flights at PDX.

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Old Feb 9, 2019, 5:12 pm
  #39  
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
We will find out. If there's any west coast city that can do without an Asia flight, it's Porand. If you pass gas hard enough it will land you into Seattle.
Which has nothing to do with whether or not Portland can sustain a flight to Tokyo on its own. This is not to say DL will not drop PDX-TYO but if that happens, it will be because PDX-TYO can't stand on its own because of a change in local market factors for the companies that currently make PDX-NRT sustainable or because with limited slots available at HND, DL believes it has a better business opportunity for another US city to HND and it's not worth maintaining a limited presence at NRT as more and more service moves to NRT, in which case, I wouldn't be surprised if ANA or JAL launch PDX-NRT to capture the Portland-Tokyo O&D traffic as well as connect PDX with their networks at NRT. Portland and Seattle are separate markets and little to no serious business traffic is driving from Portland to Seattle to catch flights. What you define as "proximity" to Seattle is still 160+ miles and at least 2.5 hours of driving, likely longer because the I-5 corridor from Olympia all the way down to Everett is awful - worse than the I-4 corridor through Orlando from what I recall.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 5:30 pm
  #40  
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
Which has nothing to do with whether or not Portland can sustain a flight to Tokyo on its own. This is not to say DL will not drop PDX-TYO but if that happens, it will be because PDX-TYO can't stand on its own because of a change in local market factors for the companies that currently make PDX-NRT sustainable or because with limited slots available at HND, DL believes it has a better business opportunity for another US city to HND and it's not worth maintaining a limited presence at NRT as more and more service moves to NRT, in which case, I wouldn't be surprised if ANA or JAL launch PDX-NRT to capture the Portland-Tokyo O&D traffic as well as connect PDX with their networks at NRT. Portland and Seattle are separate markets and little to no serious business traffic is driving from Portland to Seattle to catch flights. What you define as "proximity" to Seattle is still 160+ miles and at least 2.5 hours of driving, likely longer because the I-5 corridor from Olympia all the way down to Everett is awful - worse than the I-4 corridor through Orlando from what I recall.
I guess I could have worded it better but I wasn't suggesting anyone drive to Seattle. Delta operates PDX-SEA. It's a very quick 129 nm flight and then on to Tokyo or wherever else in Asia from there.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 5:36 pm
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by PurdueFlyer
NGO-MNL tag-on ended some years ago ... its just a daily 767 from NRT right now.
Somehow I missed that -- thanks
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 7:25 pm
  #42  
 
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Originally Posted by Toshbaf
Could this mean the end of NRT for UA or AA? What if AA gets only 2 of 3. Are they going to have a single daily flight from NRT, maybe to LAX? UA has many flights so they will probably still have HND and NRT stations.
AA has already said they will keep their existing NRT routes (ORD, DFW and LAX) at NRT in order to provide connectivity to the JL hub there. I think UA will also want to retain at least a few NRT routes for the same reason. HND is not big enough to absorb the entire JL/NH NRT operation, so there will still be plenty of routes from there following the HND expansion.

I agree with posters above that it makes sense for DL to go all-in on HND.
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Old Feb 9, 2019, 8:52 pm
  #43  
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Originally Posted by FlyBitcoin
Good luck for DL getting a HND slot to run HND-MNL or HND-SIN that connects well with their transpacific flights.

I think those intra-Asia routes are toast and folks will connect through ICN on KE. JAL just added a HND-MNL route.

My guess is that it's down to PDX vs HNL for the 4th slot.

I think a 5th freedom ICN-SIN flight could happen if DL wants to stay in SIN.
Correct! Delta has flies SIN-NRT, as well.

Originally Posted by readywhenyouare


We will find out. If there's any west coast city that can do without an Asia flight, it's Porand. If you pass gas hard enough it will land you into Seattle. .
Yes, they will find out soon enough. If they award HND slots to the airlines. USDOT will choose a specific routes.
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Old Feb 21, 2019, 12:32 pm
  #44  
 
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AA and UA have both released their proposals with UA requesting 6 new flights and AA requesting 4. Still nothing on DL’s request yet.

https://thepointsguy.com/news/united-new-hnd-flights/
https://thepointsguy.com/news/aa-las-hnd-flight/
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Old Feb 21, 2019, 2:37 pm
  #45  
 
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HA applied for three slots.

Wikipost created.
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