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ATL-LAX-ATL or ATL-SNA-ATL Upgrade Chances

ATL-LAX-ATL or ATL-SNA-ATL Upgrade Chances

Old Jan 13, 19, 1:47 pm
  #1  
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Join Date: Jan 2019
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ATL-LAX-ATL or ATL-SNA-ATL Upgrade Chances

I'm looking to go out to California from ATL for a conference in Palm Springs in early March. I'm thinking of going out Sunday morning and coming back Thu or Fri afternoon. DL has a nonstop ATL-PSP but it's only on Sat, so not an option. I can connect through SLC or MSP to PSP but prices are really high. I'm either going to go into LAX or SNA.

I'm wondering about upgrade chances as a GM for:
- Sunday AM ATL-LAX A330 flight (thought it might work in my favor with the higher number of FC seats in the A330)
- Return Thu or Fri late afternoon 3:45 pm or 5:15 pm flight LAX-ATL. My thinking is these flights might be less competitive (especially the 5:15 pm) because there would be fewer connecting Pax and in the case of the 5:15 LAX-ATL flight, it gets in around 12:30 am, so there aren't any connections that I'm aware of at that late. Equipment for both is an A321.
- Any of the ATL-SNA flights. I haven't found much on how competitive the SNA flights are. SNA would put me slightly closer to my destination and hopefully less traffic if I time the arrival and departure times right.

I know upgrades in general as a GM is tough these days out of ATL, but was just curious about some of these particular flights. Having a shot of an upgrade on a transcon might make going through LAX worth it.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 2:01 pm
  #2  
 
Join Date: May 2015
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Originally Posted by bodie730 View Post
I'm looking to go out to California from ATL for a conference in Palm Springs in early March. I'm thinking of going out Sunday morning and coming back Thu or Fri afternoon. DL has a nonstop ATL-PSP but it's only on Sat, so not an option. I can connect through SLC or MSP to PSP but prices are really high. I'm either going to go into LAX or SNA.

I'm wondering about upgrade chances as a GM for:
- Sunday AM ATL-LAX A330 flight (thought it might work in my favor with the higher number of FC seats in the A330)
- Return Thu or Fri late afternoon 3:45 pm or 5:15 pm flight LAX-ATL. My thinking is these flights might be less competitive (especially the 5:15 pm) because there would be fewer connecting Pax and in the case of the 5:15 LAX-ATL flight, it gets in around 12:30 am, so there aren't any connections that I'm aware of at that late. Equipment for both is an A321.
- Any of the ATL-SNA flights. I haven't found much on how competitive the SNA flights are. SNA would put me slightly closer to my destination and hopefully less traffic if I time the arrival and departure times right.

I know upgrades in general as a GM is tough these days out of ATL, but was just curious about some of these particular flights. Having a shot of an upgrade on a transcon might make going through LAX worth it.
As a GM on any West Coast route out of ATL, you should plan on being in economy. You might get lucky on the A330, but people are more willing to buy FC on planes with lie-flats. SNA would probably be the best shot, but that's another route where people are willing to buy FC.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 2:45 pm
  #3  
 
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Originally Posted by WWads View Post
As a GM on any West Coast route out of ATL, you should plan on being in economy. You might get lucky on the A330, but people are more willing to buy FC on planes with lie-flats. SNA would probably be the best shot, but that's another route where people are willing to buy FC.
I flew ATL-SNA last May and I believe I was still in the low 40s on the UG list as a GM. If you want F on any cross country flight from ATL, your best bet is to pay for it.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 2:53 pm
  #4  
 
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I would optimize for the drive and not for the upgrade. ONT would be even better than SNA, but it looks like you'd have to route via SLC which probably negates the time savings.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 3:00 pm
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Originally Posted by bennos View Post
I would optimize for the drive and not for the upgrade. ONT would be even better than SNA, but it looks like you'd have to route via SLC which probably negates the time savings.
When does the ATL-ONT non-stop flight start?
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Old Jan 13, 19, 6:28 pm
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Join Date: May 2011
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If you’re open to connecting in a non-hub, your upgrade chances may improve. Try BNA, MCI, DFW, AUS, or MCO.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 6:30 pm
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Originally Posted by MCO Flyer View Post


When does the ATL-ONT non-stop flight start?
One daily on April 22, 2019.
Two daily starting in June
https://www.ajc.com/blog/airport/del...ZvbqiD9un7FzK/
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Old Jan 13, 19, 6:53 pm
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Being SFO based, I had never flown LAX>ATL until last week, and was on an A333. I was waitlisted with an RUC, and never moved from being #1 on the Upgrade list, as FC checked in full. I would say your odds are ZERO for getting upgraded from ATL>LAX>ATL on any flight on any day of the week, except perhaps on a Saturday! There are just too many higher Medallions and people flying for business to hope to be upgraded on that route! WFBF!
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Old Jan 13, 19, 6:56 pm
  #9  
 
Join Date: Jul 2012
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The only transcon I was ever upgraded to first as a GM was ATL-SFO on a July 4th several years back (i.e., before FCM).
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Old Jan 13, 19, 6:59 pm
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Originally Posted by audidudi View Post
Being SFO based, I had never flown LAX>ATL until last week, and was on an A333. I was waitlisted with an RUC, and never moved from being #1 on the Upgrade list, as FC checked in full. I would say your odds are ZERO for getting upgraded from ATL>LAX>ATL on any flight on any day of the week, except perhaps on a Saturday! There are just too many higher Medallions and people flying for business to hope to be upgraded on that route! WFBF!
My last flight before ticking from PM to DM was on a Friday night ATL-LAX on the 77L I was 7th on the upgrade list using a RUC for one open seat. Turns out someone bought F for like $1,500 at the last minute and nobody got upgraded.

I cannot see a GM getting upgraded on any LAX/ATL nonstop any day of the week.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 7:00 pm
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To borrow from fellow frequent traveler Del Griffith, you'd have more luck playing pick-up sticks with your butt-cheeks than you would of clearing a Medallion Upgrade into F on an ATL-West Coast flight as GM.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 7:03 pm
  #12  
 
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Originally Posted by audidudi View Post
Being SFO based, I had never flown LAX>ATL until last week, and was on an A333. I was waitlisted with an RUC, and never moved from being #1 on the Upgrade list, as FC checked in full. I would say your odds are ZERO for getting upgraded from ATL>LAX>ATL on any flight on any day of the week, except perhaps on a Saturday! There are just too many higher Medallions and people flying for business to hope to be upgraded on that route! WFBF!
Not only do you have to compete with medallions on the A333, but there are also lots of SDC request. I flew this route a few weeks ago on the A333 red-eye in paid FC and SDC to it from a non lie flat and there will still 4 seats left when I requested it at around T-24. I checked again in the morning and there were 0 seats left.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 7:35 pm
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Honestly if I were in your shoes I would try to make the Saturday direct work. The drive is a hassle; although not bad from Ontario. It would be much easier for you in the long run if you could do Sat-Sat.
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Old Jan 13, 19, 8:27 pm
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Old Jan 13, 19, 10:34 pm
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Before they changed LAX-JFK to RUC only upgrades, I missed fewer upgrades on LAX-JFK than LAX-ATL. Even with an RUC I've missed LAX-ATL (or v.v.) more than once. I've been DM since the beginning (but will drop to PM Feb 1.) I have no experience on SNA-ATL but I'd say you have little chance on LAX-ATL, unless at a really bad time or on a holiday.
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