No inside knowledge, no. But, that is clearly the intent. And accountants whose "performance bonuses" are tied to decreasing liabilities and making the numbers look better would likely have no problem of doing this (remember a company called Enron that was audited et al? :)), esp. as it is factually accurate and supported by real world data (e.g. average $ value of actual SM redemption, that is obviously plunging down - and fast).

Sorry, I don't agree with you at all. A reputable CPA firm won't let a public company pull that kind of garbage, especially after Enron. Please recall what happened to Arthur Anderson.

In any event, DL doesn't need to play those sorts of balance sheet games. The ongoing devaluation of SkyMiles is not a fraud on the market, though it certainly may be dirty pool from the perspective of those who have acquired large caches of miles (either through flying or credit card spend).

Having advanced purchase restrictions for low level award tickets hurts ALL customers; having a close-in booking fee on award tickets for non-elite customers only hurts non-Elite customers.

Having a flat rate of 105k award fare for ALL one-way TATL flights within 90 days from departure, regardless of destination or date, isn't a demand-based decision.

Exactly, Why else would they get rid of the Award Chart a couple of years ago??
It's all part of the plan.
They are making more money than AA and UL, so... they are going to stick to the plan.
If they never give away another seat for miles, do you think they care?

The outstanding SM will add up, but their value will go down since no one is using them, because of outrageous redemptions.

It's a great plan until they have no loyal customers left. Then it will get interesting. Hero to zero in as fast as you can say GE.

No? then what it it?

I've been flying TATL for more years than most, since they bought Pan Am. You remember that don't you? They flew for years with 20 to 40 people in Economy during the off season, maybe two passengers per row in the last 10 rows.
As soon as that door shut, I find the first empty middle section and I'd have my flat bed 4 or 5 seats across.
What changed this was 9/11.The down turn was so great, they had to do something different. That drove the effort to reduce capacity and they did with a vengeance.

The TATL route has never been so full. NEVER.

So SM award levels are based on the economics of the entire aircraft, not just the half dozen award seats that may or may not be available.

It's why DL is making more money than AA or UL, and they are smart enough to at least get their employees to smile and act like they care, which I think they do.


Why give up a seat for SM? They will sell every seat if no one redeems anything. How many seats do you think they are offering in any case?
The few, just became fewer.

That is the point, though (that you seem to be missing). If DL doesn't revalue the liability on the balance sheet, then it is going to end up inaccurate and artificially high. Just like currency exchange rates fluctuate, so does the the SkyMiles value vs. USD. Why would DL not reflect thee accurate liability of its outstanding SM balance, in USD?

Sadly (for those with a sizable DL SM balance), as independent studies have proven, the airline business is not about loyalty. DL clearly has paid attention and strongly believes in that (and it is, for the most part, very true).

I, for one, am glad to have my FFPs spread fairly evenly in numerous airline and hotel programs, and do my very best to keep using it up as rapidly as possible across the board. Loyalty to any one airline went out the window shortly after DL acquired NW and started the countless devaluations and endless lies.

I agree that loyalty is overrated and doesn't have a big impact. With that said, this is going to eventually impact Delta. Delta is literally making their awards punitive, and it is going to come back to bite them. I am now to the point where I do everything I can not to fly Delta. Will I still spend 25K a year with Delta? Yes, but that is 20K less than I would have spent with them otherwise.

Ironically trying to find TATL business class redemption availability was the last straw for me. The mileage redemption literally prices out at less than 1 cent per mile for TATL fares. I can buy a ticket for $3420, but the mileage redemption is 560K plus $150 or so in fees. It's insulting and creates a negative brand impression for me.

Yes, these redemptions can be pretty extreme. It's certainly very frustrating. While I haven't done it yet, as I've been able to find better value, I always know that as a Delta AMEX cardholder I can pay with miles and get a minimum of 1 cent/ mile, so that is somewhat of a saving grace, although not much.

It's not just TATL. That is so across the board. SkyTeam awards also have been inflated so much (e.g. intra Asia), where 17,500 is the SM cost for a $50 to $90 typical price flight, for example. Whereas UA has went down to 5K, 8K, from 12.5K awards for shorter distance just earlier this year, DL has only kept pushing one way: up, up and up. Literally, the standard (lowest) award price has practically tripled on many routes over the last few years, while cash prices have stayed the same or slightly went down.

Not TATL but in general, I agree that accumulating SkyMiles is plainly not worth it. Not by flying, and certainly not by CC spend. And yes, over the long run it will impact Delta. Sadly, I am afraid that impact will be so small in the greater scheme of things, that it'll be totally lost on DL.

Look, I have no doubt that TATL load factors (or load factors in general) are higher now than they've been in the past. But you seem to be implying that Delta expects to sell out every TATL flight in the next 90 days, which can't possibly be true. A true demand-based award system would recognize that some TATL destinations are more popular in the winter (e.g., Barcelona) than others (e.g. Warsaw), and also recognize that some days of the week (e.g., Friday) and dates (e.g., around the holidays) are more popular than others. Having a flat rate of 105k miles for one-way TATL awards within 90 days is arbitrary and not demand-based.

Sorry to be a bit of a Devil's advocate, but "a flat rate of _____ miles for one-way TATL" is exactly what UA and AA do with published award charts. The 105k is arbitrary, just like 30k is arbitrary.

Except that Delta isn't a true monopoly. There may be a few tiny, small town airports served primarily by a few Delta commuter jets only, but that's not what anyone's been talking about here. Most airports have some level of competition among airlines and passengers can make a choice.


Ultimately it is. If they can't sell award flights for that number of miles and they can't otherwise fill the seats, something will change.

The laws of supply and demand are just that- SUPPLY AND demand. They work together. When demand is significantly decreased, either the price will drop OR supply will drop. Delta can adjust supply in lower demand periods by either reducing the number of flights or by adjusting the aircraft that serve the route.

I'm sure others will disagree, but I would take that in an instant if it came with the same refundability rules as Southwest.