Hurricane Michael’s Potential Impact on ATL
Oct 9, 2018, 7:26 am
#16
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Unless things change, I don't see a weather waiver coming for Atlanta today. The storm has veered further south and the probabilities for tropical storm wind speeds have dropped to about 30-40% for Atlanta.
Oct 9, 2018, 7:43 am
#17
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Delta has an advisory for cities in the panhandle, travel days 10/9- 10/10
Southwest has a much more extensive advisory fit Atlanta starting today through Friday. (And honestly I have no idea why today is included. I’m in Atlanta and I don’t think the storm is having much impact
Southwest has a much more extensive advisory fit Atlanta starting today through Friday. (And honestly I have no idea why today is included. I’m in Atlanta and I don’t think the storm is having much impact
Tropical storm force winds are supposed to arrive mid-afternoon today (10/9), and AA's advisory doesn't begin until 10/10.
Oct 9, 2018, 7:52 am
#18
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Has AA already begun cancelling flights for this afternoon? If they haven't cancelled yet they probably aren't planning to cancel.
Oct 9, 2018, 7:52 am
#19
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ATL will likely see some impact, but I doubt there will be a wholesale cancelling of flights for days. I expect some GDPs as winds increase and AAR drops to accommodate increased spacing/vectoring for arrivals.
According to the NHC, ATL isn't forecast to see tropical speed winds until Wednesday evening (below). It wouldn't surprise me if they cancel RONs Wednesday night to keep them out of harms way. By morning Thursday, things should start returning to normal at ATL.
Standard disclaimer: the weather can and does change from what's forecast.
According to the NHC, ATL isn't forecast to see tropical speed winds until Wednesday evening (below). It wouldn't surprise me if they cancel RONs Wednesday night to keep them out of harms way. By morning Thursday, things should start returning to normal at ATL.
Standard disclaimer: the weather can and does change from what's forecast.
Oct 9, 2018, 7:58 am
#20
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ATL will likely see some impact, but I doubt there will be a wholesale cancelling of flights for days. I expect some GDPs as winds increase and AAR drops to accommodate increased spacing/vectoring for arrivals.
According to the NHC, ATL isn't forecast to see tropical speed winds until Wednesday evening (below). It wouldn't surprise me if they cancel RONs Wednesday night to keep them out of harms way. By morning Thursday, things should start returning to normal at ATL.
Standard disclaimer: the weather can and does change from what's forecast.
According to the NHC, ATL isn't forecast to see tropical speed winds until Wednesday evening (below). It wouldn't surprise me if they cancel RONs Wednesday night to keep them out of harms way. By morning Thursday, things should start returning to normal at ATL.
Standard disclaimer: the weather can and does change from what's forecast.
If the storm track forecast holds, I would expect no major interruption at ATL other than some minor issues with ATC routing.
Oct 9, 2018, 9:37 am
#21
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Oct 9, 2018, 9:46 am
#22
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Oct 9, 2018, 11:19 am
#23
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It's misleading because at first pass it seems like a prediction of when to expect tropical storm winds without considering the probability of even getting tropical storm winds. The reality is that the probability of tropical storm force winds hitting Atlanta at all at this point are less than 50% probability. The chart is better read as "IF tropical storms winds are to arrive at all, this is when they are likely to arrive". This view below overlays the probability of actually seeing tropical force winds, and as you can see, Atlanta is in the 30-40% band - meaning that it is not that likely that Atlanta will even see tropical storm force winds at all.
I think this is exactly how this product is intended to be read. The 30-40% chance is representative of track and intensity error. It's also why you almost never see a 100%.
However, the NHC gives this warning for the percentages:
It is important for users to realize that probabilities that may seem relatively small (e.g., 5-10%) may still be quite significant. Users are urged to consider the potentially large costs (in terms of lives, property, etc.) of not preparing for an extreme event.
Oct 9, 2018, 12:07 pm
#24
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*Bolding partially mine
I think this is exactly how this product is intended to be read. The 30-40% chance is representative of track and intensity error. It's also why you almost never see a 100%.
However, the NHC gives this warning for the percentages:
In this case, even though there is only a 33% chance for Atlanta to see sustained tropical storm force winds, the wind gusts and rain could still cause some issues at ATL. And a shift in the track could bring TS force winds to ATL, but right now, it doesn't look too likely.
I think this is exactly how this product is intended to be read. The 30-40% chance is representative of track and intensity error. It's also why you almost never see a 100%.
However, the NHC gives this warning for the percentages:
In this case, even though there is only a 33% chance for Atlanta to see sustained tropical storm force winds, the wind gusts and rain could still cause some issues at ATL. And a shift in the track could bring TS force winds to ATL, but right now, it doesn't look too likely.
Oct 9, 2018, 2:48 pm
#25
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It's misleading because at first pass it seems like a prediction of when to expect tropical storm winds without considering the probability of even getting tropical storm winds. The reality is that the probability of tropical storm force winds hitting Atlanta at all at this point are less than 50% probability. The chart is better read as "IF tropical storms winds are to arrive at all, this is when they are likely to arrive".
Oct 10, 2018, 2:06 am
#30
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