ethernal

They did it twice - one with a flight from JFK and one with a flight from ATL. Both times every other flight had turned back and the DL flights soldiered on. Delta is pretty serious about not wanting to cancel flights...

Definitely impressive forecasting (and perhaps a bit more risk taking - not from a safety perspective but the risk of getting a plane stranded in SJU and potentially take on damage during the storm).

Lux Flyer

No idea about sharing of data, but if they do share with regionals/partners it is probably only weather data pertaining to routes they are flying for DL.

Interestingly, my understanding is that most of the unexpected turbulence we encounter while flying isn't due to weather systems. Like obviously weather systems cause turbulence, but you and everyone else knows when/where an active system exists, so you reroute to avoid that area. You don't need an extensive meteorological team to tell you that. The remaining turbulence is the unexpected stuff that pops up in clear skies. My understanding of that, is you can't see that on radar/analyzing weather systems. There are just pockets of updrafts which destabilize airflow. These are typically reported by pilots as they are encountered, and then routes/altitudes are adjusted if necessary. AFAIK this information is provided over public channels to ATC and neighboring aircraft monitoring the same frequency, and not kept company exclusive. Rightfully so, because at the point you're in the air you're no longer competing, all pilots wants a safe flight for themselves and their passengers. Ideally, there shouldn't really be any difference in the turbulence you experience by airline because everyone has access to the same information. Of course you could just have a string of bad luck where when you personally are on a certain airline experience more turbulence whether that be the routes you're flying or the length of time you're on those planes, but as a whole turbulence shouldn't differ much by airline.

Now someone mentioned up thread that Delta started using an app to track turbulence reports. That could give them a slight advantage, as they are organizing the information they receive in a better format, so you get a better idea of where the areas of turbulent airflow exist. However they are still using the same information that is publicly available to everyone else. So to answer your original question, experiencing less turbulence wouldn't be due to having a good meteorological team predicting the weather. It would be a result using the data on turbulence reports more efficiently than other airlines.

CALlegacy

Not at alI. I am talking about math. It is a serious question how does the math and the weather work out given the opportunities in Hawaii to divert from OGG may also all be closed and when does fuel and winds send you back to the mainland or is Midway a serious alternative. Of course eastbound there is no diversion after point of no return except to reach the California coast.

I wonder what the longest overwater route flown by commercial air without hope of diversion actually is.

pvn

up front should be as bad as the very back. the effects are higher as you get further away from the wing in either direction.

ethernal

Hmm.. not sure this is entirely accurate. The back of the plane is worse because of the fact that the elevator is back there (and to a lessor extent the rudder). The elevator is the primary mechanism to keep the plane flight level stable. When in turbulent air, it is fighting (mostly automatically) to keep the plane level. This causes dramatic up and down in the back. The up-and-down is dampened as it moves through the full length of the cabin because plane frame flexes and absorbs the energy through friction/deformation.

edit: to be clear, yes, theoretically over the wings should be the most stable - but you can't ignore the control surfaces on the back contributing to roughness. Also, the wings can sometimes create their own issues (I've noticed on the 787 around row 6 that there is some extra.. flex that occurs at the wing connect point that you can even feel in otherwise stable air).

WrightHI

CALlegacy

It would be a hypothetical. Here is one discussion of it: https://www.airliners.net/forum/viewtopic.php?t=452893

This article claims California-Hawaii is the longest stretch in the world without alternates (aside from other Hawaiian airports) and the first alternate for 2/3 of the way LAX-HNL is SFO: What is the longest over-water route of flight with no alternates? | Sawyer Aviation

HeadInTheClouds

readywhenyouare

HeadInTheClouds

readywhenyouare

HeadInTheClouds

BenA

It's less that Delta has superior forecasting quality - I have full faith in the National Weather Service and the professionals there. But Delta is fairly rare in having an inhouse meterology department, and I do find it plausible that focusing that department's resources on the specific routes, airports and situations that Delta cares about could be a competitive advantage. It also makes sense that using telemetry data and pilot reports from Delta's own flights as inputs into the forecast model can improve the forecast accuracy in the immediate vicinity of Delta's major hubs.

https://news.delta.com/deltas-25-met...eep-eyes-skies is a press release that discusses their efforts. It's of course marketing spin, but I think its claims are pretty reasonable.

s0ssos

It was a rescue flight. It also was able to showcase their expertise, which no other American airlines seems to have.

FlyerWx

I also think DL's own weather team helps in their decision making process. I know AA outsourced their meteorology department a few years ago.

I've too not seen a significant difference in forecasting quality between airlines, it just seems like the aviation weather-related decision-making abilities of DL are better. I consistently see DL issuing weather waivers before the other airlines for special weather events.

I know first-hand that perfectly accurate weather prediction is impossible, but the team at DL seems to do a good job with making appropriate decisions based on the weather information they have.

Aircraft data is already assimilated into the global forecast models, but real-time pilot reports definitely help with "now-casting."