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Delta flying to OGG with the hurricane

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Old Aug 24, 2018, 5:25 pm
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Delta flying to OGG with the hurricane

I see that Delta is flying the two LAX flights to OGG while everyone else cancelled their flights. Flying to ATL in thunderstorms is good practice for a hurricane I guess.
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Old Aug 24, 2018, 6:57 pm
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Not sure why this needs its own thread.

Current conditions at OGG, Cloudy, 5mph winds (gusts to 11).
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Old Aug 24, 2018, 10:43 pm
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This is pretty par for the course at Delta. Their weather team is usually spot on with their predictions which is why they "continue flying when everyone else has cancelled". This happens with major snow storms, and other weather events. If they know they can safely operate that flight, it will be going barring some other issue like mechanical, FAA restrictions, or crew problems.
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Old Aug 24, 2018, 10:53 pm
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Originally Posted by Lux Flyer
This is pretty par for the course at Delta. Their weather team is usually spot on with their predictions which is why they "continue flying when everyone else has cancelled". This happens with major snow storms, and other weather events. If they know they can safely operate that flight, it will be going barring some other issue like mechanical, FAA restrictions, or crew problems.
Do you know if DL shares its weather forecasts with any of its partners? I’ve definitely noticed the effect you mention over the years - DL will often be able to dispatch a flight when others cannot because they have better weather data. Does this extend to the regionals? (Including ones who fly for other airlines, like SkyWest)? What about ownership stake airlines like AM/VS? JV partners? General SkyTeam partners?
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Old Aug 24, 2018, 10:56 pm
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Related to having an in house weather department, I also feel pretty strongly I encounter less turbulence on DL flights than other carriers. It of course isn’t a 100% guarantee, but the difference is pretty noticeable on long international flights between DL and other carriers. (Some of this could be due to different operating procedures though, of course, or to better onboard equipment of some sort DL has chosen to invest in.)
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 7:48 am
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Originally Posted by BenA
Related to having an in house weather department, I also feel pretty strongly I encounter less turbulence on DL flights than other carriers. It of course isn’t a 100% guarantee, but the difference is pretty noticeable on long international flights between DL and other carriers. (Some of this could be due to different operating procedures though, of course, or to better onboard equipment of some sort DL has chosen to invest in.)
I remember reading about this app that they started using in 2016. Not sure if is a Delta exclusive or is being commonly used in industry these days (or how effective it really is).

I can't say whether I've experienced less or more turbulence on Delta planes on average. Keep in mind there may be a built in bias if you usually snag a C+ or F seat on Delta planes and you're back in Y- on a competitor's plane - the further back you are the worse the turbulence on average (excluding over the wing).
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 8:04 am
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I don't know if it's a weather forecast thing or more a choice of aircraft. DL is flying 757s with more range than the 738s of AS, the A321s of AA, or the 7M9 and 738 of United. They must be confident they have fuel to divert to an island with satisfactory weather if necessary. Hawaiian operated their flights with A332 and A321.
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 8:38 am
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Originally Posted by 3Cforme
They must be confident they have fuel to divert to an island with satisfactory weather if necessary.
If that is the case, it isn't a matter of confidence, it is a matter of math.
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 8:49 am
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Originally Posted by ethernal
I remember reading about this app that they started using in 2016. Not sure if is a Delta exclusive or is being commonly used in industry these days (or how effective it really is).

I can't say whether I've experienced less or more turbulence on Delta planes on average. Keep in mind there may be a built in bias if you usually snag a C+ or F seat on Delta planes and you're back in Y- on a competitor's plane - the further back you are the worse the turbulence on average (excluding over the wing).
That’s a really fair point. I do most of my international flying upfront these days, but when I think about my most aggressively turbulent flights on other airlines, they were all cases where I was seated mid-aircraft or further back.
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 8:51 am
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Originally Posted by indufan
If that is the case, it isn't a matter of confidence, it is a matter of math.
Outside of one of the Hawaiian Islands where are they going to go? -- French Frigate Shoals, Johnston, or Midway? (well not really; those first two are not operational anymore). Midway is a diversion point. Is there any such thing as a point of no return in airline operations any more? Note flights to HNL have not had any cancellations yet.
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 10:34 am
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Originally Posted by CALlegacy
Outside of one of the Hawaiian Islands where are they going to go? -- French Frigate Shoals, Johnston, or Midway? (well not really; those first two are not operational anymore). Midway is a diversion point. Is there any such thing as a point of no return in airline operations any more? Note flights to HNL have not had any cancellations yet.
There is definitely a “point of no return” concept for airline ops. The most extreme case is IPC, where the airport on Easter Island is the only diversion point for inbound flights - particularly from PPT-IPC. If an aircraft were to have a runway-blocking incident, there would be no option for other inbound flights - so the Chilean government only allows one aircraft to be within the “point of no return” range of Easter Island at any one time. (E.g. the previous flight to SCL must be past the halfway point before a new inbound flight to IPC may take off).

Hawaii dodges this sort of restriction because it at least has tons of airports, so if something goes wrong on one island you can easily divert to another. But if you look at a map of the west coast to Hawaii routing, once you’re past the halfway point, your aircraft is *going* to land somewhere in Hawaii - there really aren’t any other options...
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 10:47 am
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Originally Posted by BenA


There is definitely a “point of no return” concept for airline ops. The most extreme case is IPC, where the airport on Easter Island is the only diversion point for inbound flights - particularly from PPT-IPC. If an aircraft were to have a runway-blocking incident, there would be no option for other inbound flights - so the Chilean government only allows one aircraft to be within the “point of no return” range of Easter Island at any one time. (E.g. the previous flight to SCL must be past the halfway point before a new inbound flight to IPC may take off).

Hawaii dodges this sort of restriction because it at least has tons of airports, so if something goes wrong on one island you can easily divert to another. But if you look at a map of the west coast to Hawaii routing, once you’re past the halfway point, your aircraft is *going* to land somewhere in Hawaii - there really aren’t any other options...
Understand that ETOPS is probably the issue but wouldn't the first be mitigated simply by having an aircraft with plenty of fuel? Nothing would stop an aircraft from reaching IPC and then returning back to SCL airport assuming it has fuel.

Heck, with ETOPS-330 certification, a 787 could make it the whole trip within ETOPS range (or at least close to it).

edit - incidentally it does look like LATAM flies this route with a 787. Not sure if LATAM is ETOPS-330 certified though (and/or impacted by the issues with the RR engines)
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 10:48 am
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Delta also had an impressive flight into SJU just before the latest hurricane hit and got people out right in time......if you Google the flight path it’s amazing how they pulled it off.
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 10:49 am
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Originally Posted by CALlegacy
Outside of one of the Hawaiian Islands where are they going to go? -- French Frigate Shoals, Johnston, or Midway? (well not really; those first two are not operational anymore). Midway is a diversion point. Is there any such thing as a point of no return in airline operations any more? Note flights to HNL have not had any cancellations yet.
You must have missed my point. Either the math works out for a diversion or it doesn't. It isn't a matter of "confidence."
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Old Aug 25, 2018, 10:54 am
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Originally Posted by ethernal
Understand that ETOPS is probably the issue but wouldn't the first be mitigated simply by having an aircraft with plenty of fuel? Nothing would stop an aircraft from reaching IPC and then returning back to SCL airport assuming it has fuel.

Heck, with ETOPS-330 certification, a 787 could make it the whole trip within ETOPS range (or at least close to it).

edit - incidentally it does look like LATAM flies this route with a 787. Not sure if LATAM is ETOPS-330 certified though.
I think the problem is less IPC-SCL and more IPC-PPT, which is longer and with even fewer options. (Not to mention that loading up that much fuel would be uneconomical on a regular basis.) That said, it might be possible to operate as you suggest in case of an emergency (mass evacuation or similar).
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