3Cforme

Is that anything more than the AA + US merger?

JesseRohr

I was thinking the same thing. I guess we could spot check a couple of similar sized metros and see if there is an unusual delta between the growth at BHM and said other metros.

DiverDave

You guys are right - if you add in the US Air stats from 2013, combined AA has grown 16% at BHM from 2013 to 2016.

You can get the year end stats at the link in my prior post. The traffic reports are posted monthly, so just look at the December report to get the annual totals.

ATOBTTR

I have to agree. A random Monday in September shows 11x daily (all with MD-88s) on ATL-BHM, with about 90 minutes in between departures (there's one gap where the gap is just over 2 hours). Even SEA-LAX only sees 10 daily flights (I realize SEA-LAX and ATL-BHM serve different purposes - one aimed at a lot of O&D, the other aimed almost entirely at connecting traffic). I don't think any non-hub airport with a route that operates 11x daily can say they are being slighted at all for service.

And while psychologically backtracking can feel annoying, the backtracking probably feels worse than it is. Say DL did launch BHM-MSP. To many destinations, it's still further out of the way than "backtracking" to ATL.
Example for SFO:
BHM-ATL-SFO: 2,273 miles
BHM-MSP-SFO: 2,443 miles

Example for LAX:
BHM-ATL-LAX: 2,081 miles
BHM-MSP-LAX: 2,389 miles

Even for SEA, going via MSP from BHM rather than ATL would only be 60 miles shorter in total distance flown.

brown069

DiverDave

True, but the BHM airport catchment area greatly exceeds the CSA. Just adding in Tuscaloosa County brings another 200K to the party. BHM gets almost all of the traffic that doesn't go to HSV, MGM, DTN, or MOB. HSV is renowned for high fares and leaks a lot of traffic to BNA and BHM. MOB is way south, not a factor for BHM. DTN is way south, has like four Delta flights to ATL, and at least some of them are CRJ. MGM isn't that far from BHM and leaks traffic to BHM. Like I said before, BHM punches well above its weight.

BHM has the service that DL thinks it needs, which is frequent mainline hops to ATL to connect nearly everywhere in the world. Or you can go with AA and UA's RJ hops to their multiple hubs. Or enjoy the friendly service on WN, and be grateful that the large WN operation at BHM serves to keep something of a lid on prices.

JesseRohr

The entire state of Utah has a population of only a little over 3M. The state is about 83K square miles vs Alabama's 52K of which the CSA for SLC is nearly 47% of. So lumping an entire state's population into one metro (SLC) while leaving the other partitioned off (BHM) is hardly fair. So metro to metro I stand by the statement they're nearly identical in size.

HDQDD

They aren't. The SLC CSA is about twice the size of BHMs. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Combin...tistical_Areas

Not sure where you're going with the square mileage of the state thing, but the CSA is still the best predictor of persons likely to use an airport (or airports in CSAs that have more than one).

ATOBTTR

And airports in proximity play a factor. Reality for BHM is there are a lot of alternates. Some people outside of BHM (MGM, HSV, even ATL for cheaper fares) will drive to BHM for a better schedule or price. People in BHM may go to MGM, BNA, ATL, etc. When I was in DAY, I had three reasonable airports to use (DAY/CVG/CMH) and one semi-reasonable (IND). For people who lived in Cincinnati during the peak of the DL hub, it wasn't uncommon for people to drive to DAY/CMH/SDF/LEX/IND and then fly back through CVG for a much cheaper fare. In SEA, I can't say I have a lot of "reasonable" alternates. I have used YVR once for an international trip to Europe (way cheaper flight in J than what I could get out of SEA) and I know some people from the office have used BLI or YVR on rare occasions for leisure travel. But otherwise SEA is really it. Not knocking them at all, but I think a lot of East Coasters and those in the Southeast who are used to living in smaller states (square mileage wise) where major cities are closer together and maybe only a couple hours apart between cities major enough to have an airport with decent air service don't realize that in Western States, the next nearest major city can be a significant distance (hundreds of miles and several hours) away.

Another factor is that beyond CSA/MSA population, which is itself a factor but not the only factor in an air travel market is reasons people want or need to travel TO a city, not just from it. SLC (especially in the winter but even in the summer) gets a ton of tourism. LAS and MCO are cities that receive a ton of traffic relative to their MSA/CSAs because of all the people going there. BHM doesn't exactly a tourist draw though.

ATOBTTR

It's actually not unfair - as noted in my post above, for SLC, flyers in the SLC CSA, which extends pretty far out, really have one option: SLC. There aren't many alternate options that people consider reasonable. BHM, on the other hand, is near many other cities that all have their own airports. Those airports are within a reasonable drive of BHM (and BHM is within a reasonable drive of those airports - so traffic will be syphoned off in both directions to some extent) while that's not the case for SLC. The only other airport within that catchment for the SLC CSA is Provo, which has a couple of Allegiant flights (so we aren't talking US3/WN style service). Another big difference is that many people have a reason to go TO SLC (tourism/skiing). BHM doesn't have that draw.

Troppy

ND76

Fair doesn't have anything to do with it. Utah is basically one television market (St. George has at least one TV station, but is not a "market"). Alabama has at least five TV markets: Birmingham; Montgomery; Mobile-Pensacola; Huntsville; and Dothan; and from time to time Anniston-Jacksonville was broken out as a separate market. These markets represent both media and shopping patterns.

CPMaverick

But BHM has to compete with these other airports, even if they 'leak' traffic towards BHM most of the time. And more importantly, BHM has to compete with ATL. I have family in BHM and they won't hesitate to drive to ATL to take advantage of non-stop flights or better prices.

An airport like SLC does not have the type of competition that BHM has, so they aren't really comparable.

ND76

Delta was for a long time the #1 airline at BHM. It even had a Crown Room there. Some years ago when they were in financial difficulty they closed it (and the TSA took it over). WN then moved up to #1 in BHM.

Of course, that concourse has been demolished. I'm not sure whether the new concourse has space for a lounge, but Delta could show good will with its BHM flyers by opening up a new club.

JesseRohr