Delta to add Seattle-Osaka, Drops SEA-HKG
Jun 15, 2018, 9:52 am
#121
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Not commenting on rest of post. However all LGA-YYZ flights are DL codeshare on Westjet.
Jun 15, 2018, 9:53 am
#122
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I think the point I was trying to make is that once you close a station completely, it's difficult to reenter the market. We're not just talking about DL dropping a route, they're completely closing the station. That flight must have truly been doing terribly to justify cutting it.
Last edited by TTT; Jun 15, 2018 at 10:09 am
Jun 15, 2018, 10:03 am
#123
Join Date: Mar 2015
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I'm disappointed that DL will no longer serve HKG (especially going from daily 777 to nothing, when previously they went less than daily or back to the 332)... SEA was a great connecting point for me out of PHX, and much more seamless compared to other options via LAX & SFO. Cities with ICN service will retain a solid 1-stop routing, but DL is basically ceding everything else to AA/UA. Additionally, I would point out to those who say that DL doesn't serve routes for prestige, that they probably do... Not being privy to data, but seeing the fare dumping to PVG & PEK I would be quite surprised if those routes were stellar performers. However, those cannot be simply replaced as the Korean JV doesn't cover China. Lastly, this seems consistent in DL's overall strategy to outsource under performing routes so ultimately this isn't terribly surprising.
Jun 15, 2018, 10:25 am
#124
Join Date: Apr 2016
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This line of thinking is why airlines consistently lost billions and billions until a few years ago. You might not see many biz travelers taking xxx-icn-hkg...well apparently there are enough taking sea-hkg at a high enough price point to make the route profitable either. As others have point out regard DL's analytics, I am sure DL is aware of the HVCs flying that route and has done the math to figure out if the business those customers bring across the network covers the losses for SEA-HKG. No matter how import those customers think they are, they do enough biz to justify the route.
Jun 15, 2018, 10:45 am
#125
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so now MNL is Tier 1 but HKG is Tier 2 ??
Also, there are close to (or maybe more) daily flights USA to FRA too, so using that logic, why fly there instead of asking AF/KL ? LGA-YYZ has more than 20, so why not outsource it to Westjet ? North America to India has around 10 nonstop flights , so why announce BOM nonstop instead of letting AF KL 9W do it ? The argument goes both ways you know.
And if u really wanna be trotting out GDP as arguments, as if those are relevant, DL currently has zero nonstops between the largest GDP metro in North America and both the world’s second and third largest economies (by GDP PPP). And btw, most of Kansai region’s GDP are domestic industrial ties, with a relatively thin foreign component.
Also, there are close to (or maybe more) daily flights USA to FRA too, so using that logic, why fly there instead of asking AF/KL ? LGA-YYZ has more than 20, so why not outsource it to Westjet ? North America to India has around 10 nonstop flights , so why announce BOM nonstop instead of letting AF KL 9W do it ? The argument goes both ways you know.
And if u really wanna be trotting out GDP as arguments, as if those are relevant, DL currently has zero nonstops between the largest GDP metro in North America and both the world’s second and third largest economies (by GDP PPP). And btw, most of Kansai region’s GDP are domestic industrial ties, with a relatively thin foreign component.
Jun 15, 2018, 11:11 am
#126
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Delta is a sharp airline and people who work there are analytically savvy and know how to run a profitable business. They also know that, whatever "world class" status HKG has, it doesnt mean it's going to work for them. Delta doesnt fly routes for prestige, they fly them for profits.
Jun 15, 2018, 11:47 am
#127
Join Date: Aug 2013
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Let me put it back at you -
Evidently, the answer is yes.
Now it may or may not be that the detailed analysis and/or resulting decision of the board in that particular case was flawed (the new boss clearly thinks so) but that doesn’t mean it was wrong to ‘dare’ to bring the case.
let me put it back at you - if you’re in charge of network planning at one of the 3 US legacies, and hypothetically, LHRJFK shows a continuous 36 month loss, would you actually dare bring the business case to senior management to cut LHRJFK (as in closing the station, not just capacity adjustments) ?
Now it may or may not be that the detailed analysis and/or resulting decision of the board in that particular case was flawed (the new boss clearly thinks so) but that doesn’t mean it was wrong to ‘dare’ to bring the case.
Jun 15, 2018, 11:50 am
#128
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Sad news but not unexpected. I took this flight a few times and every time I was able to get a dirt cheap Y or low level mileage award in Y and J within 1-2 weeks of departure.
It was my go-to flight for SE Asia when I could not find a decent fare or good connection through ICN.
I wish they made westbound a red eye and beefed up single ticket connections with HA, CX and GA. I took advantage of several through-fares via HKG (and surprisingly with connection on CX too) but such fares were rare. Looks like AC sells a lot of tickets connecting via non-hubs to non-partners in Asia, for Ixample I had AC flights from YVR conncting to GA, KE and CX in ICN and HKG, so if AC can make it work with so much competition frm YVR, why DL can not?
HKG is a convenient transfer point to SE Asia - it's closer to BKK, SIN, KUL etc and you do not need to take another 6-7 hour flight after landing at ICN or NRT. It also has a lot more flights to smaller cities that are not served from ICN/NRT. HKG is also a great stopover city. I did not mind flying SEA-HKG, spending a day or two in HKG and doing a separate cheap ticket to places like KUL, CNX or DPS.
If CX steps up and starts SEA - HKG, especially with a red eye westbound, it will be hard for me not to switch all my SE Asia flying to CX.
My speculation that SEA-HKG relied too much on connecting traffic to/from SEA. When DL was growing in SEA like crazy it had a surplus of connecting seats. The growth has slowed down and DL can not give up 200 seats a day for cheap HKG connections. I also never understood upgauge to 777 or was it neccessary with 777 in CDG rotation?
The aircraft utilization was also horrible with DL sitting in HKG from 7pm to 11am. Doing a red-eye westbound would be much more reasonable but without contracts with CX or HA for connecting pax, it would not be very popular for O/D pax.
And as many mentioned, if DL had 787 the flight could probably stay.
It was my go-to flight for SE Asia when I could not find a decent fare or good connection through ICN.
I wish they made westbound a red eye and beefed up single ticket connections with HA, CX and GA. I took advantage of several through-fares via HKG (and surprisingly with connection on CX too) but such fares were rare. Looks like AC sells a lot of tickets connecting via non-hubs to non-partners in Asia, for Ixample I had AC flights from YVR conncting to GA, KE and CX in ICN and HKG, so if AC can make it work with so much competition frm YVR, why DL can not?
HKG is a convenient transfer point to SE Asia - it's closer to BKK, SIN, KUL etc and you do not need to take another 6-7 hour flight after landing at ICN or NRT. It also has a lot more flights to smaller cities that are not served from ICN/NRT. HKG is also a great stopover city. I did not mind flying SEA-HKG, spending a day or two in HKG and doing a separate cheap ticket to places like KUL, CNX or DPS.
If CX steps up and starts SEA - HKG, especially with a red eye westbound, it will be hard for me not to switch all my SE Asia flying to CX.
My speculation that SEA-HKG relied too much on connecting traffic to/from SEA. When DL was growing in SEA like crazy it had a surplus of connecting seats. The growth has slowed down and DL can not give up 200 seats a day for cheap HKG connections. I also never understood upgauge to 777 or was it neccessary with 777 in CDG rotation?
The aircraft utilization was also horrible with DL sitting in HKG from 7pm to 11am. Doing a red-eye westbound would be much more reasonable but without contracts with CX or HA for connecting pax, it would not be very popular for O/D pax.
And as many mentioned, if DL had 787 the flight could probably stay.
Jun 15, 2018, 12:08 pm
#129
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There are a lot of flights to KIX from the US at very competitive price points. The problem is the price gauging by DL and others on, say, SEA-HNL, so that doing the connection in HNL to KIX (yes, makes the flight longer, 6+6 hours) it'll cost quite a bit more on SEA-HNL vs HNL-KIX.
Jun 15, 2018, 12:13 pm
#130
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Jun 15, 2018, 12:23 pm
#131
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WEll, they are the most profitable of the US3,and have been so for a long time. Are you suggesting they really dont know what they're doing? would you like to try to do better, mr armchair CEO?
Jun 15, 2018, 12:54 pm
#132
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let me put it back at you - if you’re in charge of network planning at one of the 3 US legacies, and hypothetically, LHR shows a continuous 36 month loss, would you actually dare bring the business case to senior management to cut LHR (as in closing the station, not just capacity adjustments) ?
1. Capacity adjustments on LHR can mean 757, 763, 764, 332, 333, 350, 777
Capacity Adjustments on HKG are 777 vs 332 and 332 had restrictions some parts of the year. I suppose 350 could be in the conversation, but those are of limited quantity.
LHR is a relatively short flight from most of Delta's hubs, this gives network planners much greater flexibility, HKG is a ULH from most hubs, no matter the status of the city globally, an ULH flight is always much more of a financial risk; a risk that Delta no longer found worthwhile or profitable (if it ever was).
2. LHR is served from multiple cities and is the #1 single international destination from the US, DL has no problem cutting LHR from one city (ie: PHL)
3. If a route is loss making for 36 months, but has impacts throughout the network that make the loss worth it sure keep the route, this was clearly not the case for HKG in the Delta network. As cited earlier, most major cities in the US (especially east coast) were better served geographically going to XXX-ICN-HKG vs XXX-SEA-HKG
Sidebar: SIN is an example of a world class city, DL and UA serve but not AA, Should AA start a ULH route to SIN for prestige?
Jun 15, 2018, 1:09 pm
#133
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and it’s a strange “perspective”, to put it mildly, to have for anyone who doesn’t financially benefit from the airline. Many of these decisions may be financially sound for the company, but they’re frequently unpopular for consumers. “Metal neutral” is only a concept for the Airlines. It’s no different than flying a codeshare flight from the pax perspective.
if your argument is that Delta must be smarter than us due to profits, I’d love to hear their explanation for picking Nokia phablets running the dead end Windows Phone platform other than just paying lip service to Microsoft and its contract. MSFT completely abandoned the platform, and DL is stuck with going through the entire procurement and training process again on 30,000 iOS devices instead.
Jun 15, 2018, 1:16 pm
#134
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Jun 15, 2018, 1:18 pm
#135
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I'm not sure LHR is an Apples to Apples comparison.
1. Capacity adjustments on LHR can mean 757, 763, 764, 332, 333, 350, 777
Capacity Adjustments on HKG are 777 vs 332 and 332 had restrictions some parts of the year. I suppose 350 could be in the conversation, but those are of limited quantity.
LHR is a relatively short flight from most of Delta's hubs, this gives network planners much greater flexibility, HKG is a ULH from most hubs, no matter the status of the city globally, an ULH flight is always much more of a financial risk; a risk that Delta no longer found worthwhile or profitable (if it ever was).
2. LHR is served from multiple cities and is the #1 single international destination from the US, DL has no problem cutting LHR from one city (ie: PHL)
3. If a route is loss making for 36 months, but has impacts throughout the network that make the loss worth it sure keep the route, this was clearly not the case for HKG in the Delta network. As cited earlier, most major cities in the US (especially east coast) were better served geographically going to XXX-ICN-HKG vs XXX-SEA-HKG
Sidebar: SIN is an example of a world class city, DL and UA serve but not AA, Should AA start a ULH route to SIN for prestige?
1. Capacity adjustments on LHR can mean 757, 763, 764, 332, 333, 350, 777
Capacity Adjustments on HKG are 777 vs 332 and 332 had restrictions some parts of the year. I suppose 350 could be in the conversation, but those are of limited quantity.
LHR is a relatively short flight from most of Delta's hubs, this gives network planners much greater flexibility, HKG is a ULH from most hubs, no matter the status of the city globally, an ULH flight is always much more of a financial risk; a risk that Delta no longer found worthwhile or profitable (if it ever was).
2. LHR is served from multiple cities and is the #1 single international destination from the US, DL has no problem cutting LHR from one city (ie: PHL)
3. If a route is loss making for 36 months, but has impacts throughout the network that make the loss worth it sure keep the route, this was clearly not the case for HKG in the Delta network. As cited earlier, most major cities in the US (especially east coast) were better served geographically going to XXX-ICN-HKG vs XXX-SEA-HKG
Sidebar: SIN is an example of a world class city, DL and UA serve but not AA, Should AA start a ULH route to SIN for prestige?
LAX-SIN is 8770mi for AA, while SEA-HKG is just 6500mi. All others being equal, it’s laughable to suggest the business case for one is a parallel of the other.