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Delta to add Seattle-Osaka, Drops SEA-HKG

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Old Jul 23, 2018, 5:09 pm
  #271  
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Originally Posted by garykung
Not correct. The smallest ever U.S. market served by any airlines from Hong Kong is SPN, which is served by HX and
If you want to be technical fine, then that is true, but I was implying SEA was the smallest served US market from North America, even without saying it. GUM and SPN aren’t served from US mainland and the only domestic way to GUM/SPN is via HNL so I think most people could figure out what I was implying.

Originally Posted by garykung
1. How about SFO?

2. HKG is more than a financial hub. It actually serves as a gateway to Asia as well. For example, Apple is one of the major UA's customer for SFO-HKG (Apple's products are manufactured by Foxconn, which has a massive production facility in Shenzhen, just north of Hong Kong.)

SFO is nearly 25% larger than SEA already generating a larger population from which to draw traffic (again, as I posted, local population is not the only factor but it is a factor) and is also a major financial center. SFO is also a very large and well-established hub for UA.

Between this and your contradictions in the same post on DL having spare capacity versus not having spare capacity in the fleet, I'm beginning to think you don't understand the subject you're trying to talk about.

Originally Posted by garykung
SEA is a poor choice for TPAC hubs, given its proximity to YVR.

While there's some cross-flow between the two areas, and probably even decent local traffic between the two areas, they are two different markets in different countries. YVR is also a hub for a *A airline (AC). I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not saying the SEA hub will pan out. Only time and the market will tell that.





Last edited by ATOBTTR; Jul 23, 2018 at 6:32 pm
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Old Jul 23, 2018, 5:18 pm
  #272  
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Originally Posted by formeraa
SEA has always had some TPAC service because of its geography in the PNW and, in the 20th century, aircraft range limitations (NW used it extensively in serving Asia for many years). I actually think DL knew exactly what it was getting into. After all, DL had the failed PDX Asia hub in the early 90's (talk about a metro area being to small!!). They also have the legacy NW history of serving Asia extensively through SEA. SEA is still a relatively new hub for DL and they are still experimenting with the right mix of international flights.
I would consider it an exaggeration to say that there is "legacy NW history of serving Asia extensively through SEA".
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Old Jul 23, 2018, 5:21 pm
  #273  
 
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Originally Posted by TheMoose
I think that says volumes about DL's attempt to "force" SEA into a hub for Asia-bound/Asia-originating travelers. DL simply couldn't (or wouldn't) compete with the other giants at SFO and LAX, so they decided to leverage (aka force) their relative domestic strength at SEA into a Transpacific hub of their own.

DL still doesn't have enough domestic feed into SEA, and -- while SEA has a large corporate base and significant Asian population for VFR travel -- it still is only a marginally larger market than, for example, MSP, which has much greater domestic feed. It can't compete with SFO/LAX in the O/D traffic that really helps a hub thrive, or even ORD/NYC which are longer hauls but are much stronger markets than SEA (or MSP, DTW, or ATL).

Even well after the merger, the USA->NRT->Asia points onward model is still best for DL's US hubs and route network. It'll be a number of years before they are able to replicate that setup via ICN and KE, and until then, DL will continue to have sub-par connectivity to/from Asia when compared to the other US carriers.
1) DL will probably add more international routes in a couple years when the new customs facility is completed.
2) DL has a limited number of gates for both domestic and international routes.

I think SEA is the right strategy since SFO is UA's hub. LAX is very competitive and makes for inefficient connections for most of the country. SEA makes sense due to its location.

Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
I realize DL was making the decision with data I don't have as well as priorities I don't have, and it's also been discussed elsewhere in this forum, but in my own opinion, this is why I think DL was short-sighted to sever ties with AS the way it did. While I realize DL needed some domestic presence of its own at SEA as it built up the hub, I wish (and think) they should have maintained the AS partnership and looked at the partnership as an advantage to feed int'l traffic at SEA rather than as a barrier to their goals at SEA, especially given how well established AS is here in the SEA and throughout the rest of the West Coast. I think they could have used that partnership to better feed their international flights, perhaps even drawn up a more exclusive relationship between the two. Of course it doesn't matter now - that's all now "if"....
I really think DL made a mistake dumping their AS relationship. If would have helped provide a lot more feed than DL can alone.
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Old Jul 23, 2018, 5:32 pm
  #274  
 
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Originally Posted by garykung
Good luck getting anyone here to agree with this.

1. How about SFO?

2. HKG is more than a financial hub. It actually serves as a gateway to Asia as well. For example, Apple is one of the major UA's customer for SFO-HKG (Apple's products are manufactured by Foxconn, which has a massive production facility in Shenzhen, just north of Hong Kong.)
SF is a major financial center as well as a tech center. Seattle is not a financial center, especially after the collapse of Washington Mutual.



Originally Posted by garykung
SEA is a poor choice for TPAC hubs, given its proximity to YVR.
You do realize that SEA and YVR are in different countries, right? It's not a simple two hour drive between those two cities due to the fact you have to cross a border to get from the US to Canada and it usually takes even longer to get back.
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Old Jul 23, 2018, 5:39 pm
  #275  
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Originally Posted by garykung
Good luck getting anyone here to agree with this.

1. How about SFO?

2. HKG is more than a financial hub. It actually serves as a gateway to Asia as well. For example, Apple is one of the major UA's customer for SFO-HKG (Apple's products are manufactured by Foxconn, which has a massive production facility in Shenzhen, just north of Hong Kong.)



Not correct. The smallest ever U.S. market served by any airlines from Hong Kong is SPN, which is served by HX and UO nonstop and UA with connections.

SPN and GUM are 2 forgotten U.S. markets that even DL has abandoned.



SEA is a poor choice for TPAC hubs, given its proximity to YVR.
SPN and Guam while territories of the US, generally aren't considered part of the US when talking in generic terms. Heck HI and AK generally aren't what are being referred to when someone talks about flying to the US. It, as is clear the poster you quote meant, means the CONUS.
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Old Jul 23, 2018, 10:43 pm
  #276  
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
If you want to be technical fine, then that is true, but I was implying SEA was the smallest served US market from North America, even without saying it.
Then you should simply say the smallest N. America market from HKG.

For all intents and purposes, the geographical of the U.S. does include both territories of Guam and CNMI.

Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
SFO is nearly 25% larger than SEA already generating a larger population from which to draw traffic (again, as I posted, local population is not the only factor but it is a factor) and is also a major financial center. SFO is also a very large and well-established hub for UA.
Originally Posted by SJC ORD LDR
SF is a major financial center as well as a tech center. Seattle is not a financial center, especially after the collapse of Washington Mutual.
The problem her is over-thinking.

I pointed out SFO because you claim SEA is a technology hub, which is not really the case. Among the largest tech. companies, only Amazon and Microsoft (I can throw in Nintendo as well) are located near Seattle. On the other hand, the famous Silicone Valley is near SFO, where tons of tech. companies house their HQs or campuses.

Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
While there's some cross-flow between the two areas, and probably even decent local traffic between the two areas, they are two different markets in different countries. YVR is also a hub for a *A airline (AC). I don't have a crystal ball. I'm not saying the SEA hub will pan out. Only time and the market will tell that.
Originally Posted by SJC ORD LDR
You do realize that SEA and YVR are in different countries, right? It's not a simple two hour drive between those two cities due to the fact you have to cross a border to get from the US to Canada and it usually takes even longer to get back.
Although Canada has not become the 51th state yet (), YVR's setup in fact attracts transit traffic. Specifically, YVR allows transit passengers to bypass CBSA inspections. Also - Canada allows more passengers to travel to Canada visa-free. So you can't really say YVR can't make a dent on SEA.
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Old Jul 23, 2018, 11:33 pm
  #277  
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Originally Posted by garykung
Then you should simply say the smallest N. America market from HKG.

For all intents and purposes, the geographical of the U.S. does include both territories of Guam and CNMI.

Well in your quest to be Mr. Technical, you are wrong here. Technically YVR, with a metro area of ~2.5 million, is the smallest market in North America market with HKG passenger service, as the SEA metro area population is about 3.7 million. So while harassing me about “forgetting” that GUM and SPN were part of the US, I guess you forget that “for all intents and purposes”, Canada, and YVR specifically, is part of North America.....

Maybe instead of geography technicalities you can try focusing on the big picture?


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Old Jul 24, 2018, 5:25 am
  #278  
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR
Well in your quest to be Mr. Technical, you are wrong here. Technically YVR, with a metro area of ~2.5 million, is the smallest market in North America market with HKG passenger service, as the SEA metro area population is about 3.7 million. So while harassing me about “forgetting” that GUM and SPN were part of the US, I guess you forget that “for all intents and purposes”, Canada, and YVR specifically, is part of North America.....

Maybe instead of geography technicalities you can try focusing on the big picture?


You make the SEA claim as the smallest market, not me. Beside, even Greater Vancouver area has less population than Seattle area, the minorities population of Greater Vancouver, especially Asian, is close to 50% of the area, while Seattle has 30% of minorities population at best. So one could argue that YVR has a better potential as a TPAC hub than SEA, or at the minimum, a larger market.

Now back to the regular schedule.
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 5:32 am
  #279  
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR

Well in your quest to be Mr. Technical, you are wrong here. Technically YVR, with a metro area of ~2.5 million, is the smallest market in North America market with HKG passenger service, as the SEA metro area population is about 3.7 million. So while harassing me about “forgetting” that GUM and SPN were part of the US, I guess you forget that “for all intents and purposes”, Canada, and YVR specifically, is part of North America.....

Maybe instead of geography technicalities you can try focusing on the big picture?

BUT

If you breakdown the demographics of the greater Vancouver area you will see that it is the biggest HKG flight market.
As an airport YVR at the present is better equipped to handle TPAC inbound. They still have landing slots and gates available for additional flight.

When DL was running DTW HKG they were price battling the Southwestern Ontario market as well as Toronto .
IIRC they were undercutting discounted Y fare of the Direct YYZ HKG flights by $200-300.

The HKG North American Market buyer's are:
Family visit
Family visit with means to fly J
Price sensitive corporate flyers
then
Price insensitive flyers or company with DL contracts.
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 7:00 am
  #280  
 
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Originally Posted by garykung
I pointed out SFO because you claim SEA is a technology hub, which is not really the case. Among the largest tech. companies, only Amazon and Microsoft (I can throw in Nintendo as well) are located near Seattle. On the other hand, the famous Silicone Valley is near SFO, where tons of tech. companies house their HQs or campuses.
Not a tech hub? HAHAHA.

So ignoring the second and third largest tech firms in the world (and who are the clear number #1 and #2 in Cloud computing) both being headquartered in the area, as well as the many other firms that each have thousands of people working in tech in the area, it isn't a tech hub?
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 7:28 am
  #281  
 
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Originally Posted by SEA-Flyer
Not a tech hub? HAHAHA.

So ignoring the second and third largest tech firms in the world (and who are the clear number #1 and #2 in Cloud computing) both being headquartered in the area, as well as the many other firms that each have thousands of people working in tech in the area, it isn't a tech hub?
i chuckled at "only amazon and microsoft."

"setting aside GM, Ford, and Chrysler, Detroit is not an automotive hub"
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 8:20 am
  #282  
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Originally Posted by garykung
You make the SEA claim as the smallest market, not me. Beside, even Greater Vancouver area has less population than Seattle area, the minorities population of Greater Vancouver, especially Asian, is close to 50% of the area, while Seattle has 30% of minorities population at best. So one could argue that YVR has a better potential as a TPAC hub than SEA, or at the minimum, a larger market.

Now back to the regular schedule.
And I guess you forgot or didn’t notice in the posts you quoted where I previously mentioned about YVR being a smaller market when looked at as total MSA (metro population), but that this was only a factor in a market and not the only factor in a a market. I’m well aware other market factors come into play - that’s how this whole discussion started until you decided to derail it with poor attempts at geography lessons - by me posting that SEA and HKG are different markets with different primary industries, hence a possibly explanation as part of why SEA-HKG didn’t perform as well as hoped and is being cut.

And you still haven’t explained your contradiction in the “spare aircraft” remarks and how in the same posts, in one part you say “Delta now has two spare aircraft” due to SEA-HKG being cut then in another part of that same post say Delta has “no spare aircraft”.

Originally Posted by tentseller
BUT

If you breakdown the demographics of the greater Vancouver area you will see that it is the biggest HKG flight market.

As an airport YVR at the present is better equipped to handle TPAC inbound. They still have landing slots and gates available for additional flight.

When DL was running DTW HKG they were price battling the Southwestern Ontario market as well as Toronto .

IIRC they were undercutting discounted Y fare of the Direct YYZ HKG flights by $200-300.

The HKG North American Market buyer's are:
Family visit
Family visit with means to fly J
Price sensitive corporate flyers
then
Price insensitive flyers or company with DL contracts.
I mentioned and admitted at least twice upthread - that although YVR was a smaller market in terms of total MSA, that total MSA was only a factor and not the only factor. Then garykung decided it was more important to derail the discussion and play geography games. But I’m well aware that other factors besides just total population play a role, hence why a cities like HNL, MCO, and LAS have a ton of service relative to their MSA populations. Because of other market factors.
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 9:31 am
  #283  
 
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Originally Posted by koreanair720
i chuckled at "only amazon and microsoft."

"setting aside GM, Ford, and Chrysler, Detroit is not an automotive hub"
In addition to the absurdity of the claim that SEA doesn’t qualify as a tech hub, it isn’t even true to say that the major Bay Area companies don’t have a presence. Google, Facebook, and Adobe all have large operations in Seattle, and the size is growing rapidly, not shrinking (Google is constructing a new campus on several city blocks across the street from Amazon right now, for example).

The presence of the majors also supports a healthy ecosystem of very successful second tier tech companies - Tableau, Expedia, Zillow, Valve and Redfin are some good examples.

Where Seattle falls down is the startup scene - there are a few of us, but by and large the capital investment is in the Bay Area, and most funds like to have their companies close to offer adult supervision for their money.
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 9:39 am
  #284  
 
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Originally Posted by ATOBTTR

And I guess you forgot or didn’t notice in the posts you quoted where I previously mentioned about YVR being a smaller market when looked at as total MSA (metro population), but that this was only a factor in a market and not the only factor in a a market. I’m well aware other market factors come into play - that’s how this whole discussion started until you decided to derail it with poor attempts at geography lessons - by me posting that SEA and HKG are different markets with different primary industries, hence a possibly explanation as part of why SEA-HKG didn’t perform as well as hoped and is being cut.

And you still haven’t explained your contradiction in the “spare aircraft” remarks and how in the same posts, in one part you say “Delta now has two spare aircraft” due to SEA-HKG being cut then in another part of that same post say Delta has “no spare aircraft”.


I mentioned and admitted at least twice upthread - that although YVR was a smaller market in terms of total MSA, that total MSA was only a factor and not the only factor. Then garykung decided it was more important to derail the discussion and play geography games. But I’m well aware that other factors besides just total population play a role, hence why a cities like HNL, MCO, and LAS have a ton of service relative to their MSA populations. Because of other market factors.
Exactly. YVR is a special case because of the colossal overseas HKG population who chose to settle en masse there during the 1997 handover. If there were a practical way to link Richmond to the MTR, it would have already happened.

While the geographic proximity is interesting - it allowed Delta to siphon off the occasional connecting passenger in the YVR-HKG market, and sometimes creates an incentive for Seatteites to drive north or fly AC - the markets are effectively separate.

AC may get some connecting corporate traffic for their YVR flights, but CX doesn’t really have any feed from Seattle right now (the AS relationship is relatively new and they haven’t been aggressive about filing codeshares).

The biggest reason YVR is a factor is simply that Hong Kongers who wanted to live in the Pacific NW mostly chose BC and not Washington as their base to be near the rest of the community. That ethnic distribution - giving Seattle a much healthier minority population of Korean and Japanese immigrants - directly affects O&D numbers.
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Old Jul 24, 2018, 11:58 am
  #285  
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This thread has turned hilarious.
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