Delta Nonstop LAX-ORD (or any airport in LA and Chicago)
May 18, 2018, 12:53 pm
#16
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Except the distance to ORD is double the distance to DEN from LAX. Plus DEN is woefully under served T-PAC so several possible DEN/LAX/TPAC connections are doable. Other than SYD, I don't think DL serves anywhere from LAX that isn't available non-stop from ORD. And in DEN you're only fighting UA and sort of F9. In ORD you're fighting UA and AA and AS plus WN at MDW.
So for DL LAX/ORD would all be O/D. And on the ORD end, they have virtually no FF base, and the LAX end it's so fractured that it would be tough to fill those flights profitably. Especially since I checked on Expedia and you can get a flight from LAX to ORD leaving Monday the 21st and returning the 22 for $206 on AA. There isn't a lot of room to lower fares to get any market share on that route.
I have to believe that DL has given this route strong consideration but just can't make the numbers work. It's not like this is some obscure city pair that would have a ton of demand but no one has thought it up or is brave enough to try.
So for DL LAX/ORD would all be O/D. And on the ORD end, they have virtually no FF base, and the LAX end it's so fractured that it would be tough to fill those flights profitably. Especially since I checked on Expedia and you can get a flight from LAX to ORD leaving Monday the 21st and returning the 22 for $206 on AA. There isn't a lot of room to lower fares to get any market share on that route.
I have to believe that DL has given this route strong consideration but just can't make the numbers work. It's not like this is some obscure city pair that would have a ton of demand but no one has thought it up or is brave enough to try.
If DL were to fly this route, it could provide feed to partner TPAC flights, but some of the same routes would be available as connections through SEA, such as the KE LAX-ICN flight.
May 18, 2018, 1:24 pm
#17
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um, no
Second, anything DL could pick up on their own metal ex-LAX would be pure garbage fares given the plethora of nonstops offered from ORD on a multitude of carriers, leaving only bottom-feeders to connect via LAX
Lastly, LAX (except to SYD obviously is considerably out of the way between Chicago and Asia and as such, drives much longer elapsed times - further driving down yields.
May 18, 2018, 2:06 pm
#18
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How much gate space does Delta have at ORD? If they fully utilize their ORD gates, they may not have enough room to fly LAX-ORD.
I'm not sure competition discourages Delta from flying LAX-ORD. Delta has no qualms about competing - they fly highly competitive routes like LAX-SFO,LAX-PHX,LAX-LAS, and LAX-DEN.
I'm not sure competition discourages Delta from flying LAX-ORD. Delta has no qualms about competing - they fly highly competitive routes like LAX-SFO,LAX-PHX,LAX-LAS, and LAX-DEN.
May 18, 2018, 2:24 pm
#19
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As much as I enjoy flying DL, ORD-LAX is one of those routes where I just suck it up and fly AA. DL isn't even competitive on price with ORD-SLC-LAX, which is annoying because the morning ORD-SLC is a reasonably feasible upgrade for a Plat, which I'll be again by September.
I think DL would be more likely to start RDU-ORD than LAX-ORD, as they could fly it with a CR9 and get away with 2x/day aimed at RDU originating traffic and just flying it on non-holiday weekdays. RDU-CHI has a relatively high cost (it's generally $280+ RT on any of AA/UA/WN if there is not a sale going on) and ORD sees a lot of CR9s anyway.
I think DL would be more likely to start RDU-ORD than LAX-ORD, as they could fly it with a CR9 and get away with 2x/day aimed at RDU originating traffic and just flying it on non-holiday weekdays. RDU-CHI has a relatively high cost (it's generally $280+ RT on any of AA/UA/WN if there is not a sale going on) and ORD sees a lot of CR9s anyway.
May 18, 2018, 2:26 pm
#20
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Just curious, why focus on ORD-LAX for lack of Delta nonstops? The five largest cities in the US are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia. Delta doesn't have nonstops between LAX and Chicago, Houston, or Philadelphia, nor for that matter among any of these four in any combination.
Hub-and-spoke philosophy precludes non-hub large cities being interconnected nonstop.
Hub-and-spoke philosophy precludes non-hub large cities being interconnected nonstop.
May 18, 2018, 2:44 pm
#21
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Just curious, why focus on ORD-LAX for lack of Delta nonstops? The five largest cities in the US are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia. Delta doesn't have nonstops between LAX and Chicago, Houston, or Philadelphia, nor for that matter among any of these four in any combination.
Hub-and-spoke philosophy precludes non-hub large cities being interconnected nonstop.
Hub-and-spoke philosophy precludes non-hub large cities being interconnected nonstop.
May 18, 2018, 2:53 pm
#22
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Interestingly while AA handles the most pax in LAX, DL is a close second (15.9M/18.8% vs 14.0M/16.6% in 2017; UA is third at 11.9M/14.2%). While I agree with the general sentiment of there already being enough competition in the LA-CHI market, I think there is an interesting discussion about the overall portfolio DL needs to maintain at LAX to stay at or near the top of the pack.
May 18, 2018, 3:26 pm
#23
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Another thing to consider, LAX-DEN is operated 4x daily with 717, which have the cheapest cost for flight crew and fuel of mainline aircraft. Delta also has a significant 717 operation at LAX so the plane is not just flying between LAX & DEN. Unfortunately, the 717 does not have the range to do LAX-ORD. The cheapest workable option would probably be an A319, but the question is how to fit in? Looking at current schedules, the one option I see is DL2434 LAX-BNA-LAX aircraft. Since the aircraft's next flight is usually one of the redeyes after 10 PM, Delta could do a 6/6:30 PM ORD departure and still have the aircraft in LAX in enough time or make it slightly earlier so you can, at least have Sydney and San Diego connections though it would mostly be O&D traffic.
May 18, 2018, 3:31 pm
#24
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Just curious, why focus on ORD-LAX for lack of Delta nonstops? The five largest cities in the US are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Houston, and Philadelphia. Delta doesn't have nonstops between LAX and Chicago, Houston, or Philadelphia, nor for that matter among any of these four in any combination.
Hub-and-spoke philosophy precludes non-hub large cities being interconnected nonstop.
Hub-and-spoke philosophy precludes non-hub large cities being interconnected nonstop.
May 18, 2018, 3:34 pm
#25
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May 18, 2018, 3:43 pm
#26
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Another thing to consider, LAX-DEN is operated 4x daily with 717, which have the cheapest cost for flight crew and fuel of mainline aircraft. Delta also has a significant 717 operation at LAX so the plane is not just flying between LAX & DEN. Unfortunately, the 717 does not have the range to do LAX-ORD. The cheapest workable option would probably be an A319, but the question is how to fit in? Looking at current schedules, the one option I see is DL2434 LAX-BNA-LAX aircraft. Since the aircraft's next flight is usually one of the redeyes after 10 PM, Delta could do a 6/6:30 PM ORD departure and still have the aircraft in LAX in enough time or make it slightly earlier so you can, at least have Sydney and San Diego connections though it would mostly be O&D traffic.
Any traffic DL would get ORD/LAX is going to be low margin as with so many flights fares are dirt cheap, or even lower margin connection traffic.
It would be great if DL had that route, but it's not like they haven't thought about it. It's not some obscure city pair that no one's had the guts to try...they obviously feel they can't make the economics work...so unless AA or UA implodes and decides to drop the route, I wouldn't hold my breath.
May 18, 2018, 3:47 pm
#27
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Another thing to consider, LAX-DEN is operated 4x daily with 717, which have the cheapest cost for flight crew and fuel of mainline aircraft. Delta also has a significant 717 operation at LAX so the plane is not just flying between LAX & DEN. Unfortunately, the 717 does not have the range to do LAX-ORD. The cheapest workable option would probably be an A319, but the question is how to fit in? Looking at current schedules, the one option I see is DL2434 LAX-BNA-LAX aircraft. Since the aircraft's next flight is usually one of the redeyes after 10 PM, Delta could do a 6/6:30 PM ORD departure and still have the aircraft in LAX in enough time or make it slightly earlier so you can, at least have Sydney and San Diego connections though it would mostly be O&D traffic.
May 18, 2018, 5:09 pm
#28
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From what I’ve heard, DL really wants to do more at ORD, but can’t get the necessary gate space. UA has shoved them into the end of E, and isn’t willing to give up any additional gates in that terminal.
Apparently DL will be moving operations to T5 soon, which should mean additional gate space.
May 18, 2018, 5:10 pm
#29
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Now DL does have more aircraft coming online, including more 737-900s and the C-Series (though I think there might be route limitation agreements between DL and Bombardier though DL could still shuffle aircraft around) and with that, they may then consider ORD-LAX but I still wouldn't be shocked if they elect not to enter that bloodbath even then.