ATOBTTR

You have to look at this from a larger network perspective. The NRT hub for DL relied on both O&D to Tokyo and onward connections on DL's flights to sustain all the flights into and onward from NRT. When NRT was the only option from N. America, all airlines were on an about equal footing in this regard. With HND being given a flew slots for service to some N. American cities, HND is now the preferred option for much of the Tokyo bound O&D traffic. Both AA and UA and their respective alliance partners still have a significant presence at both HND and NRT so they can still attract O&D and connections to/through both airports and sustain their operations. However, due to the few slots at HND that have been given to N. American carriers, DL cannot shift its entire operation to HND but to remain competitive at all in TYO, they of course have to take what they can get at HND with that being the preferred airport for most of TYO. Thus for DL, the O&D required to sustain their NRT ops is being syphoned away to their own flights to HND and also to the partner flights for customers who simply prefer the more convenient option of HND and are perhaps more tied to convenience or time-savings than airline/alliance loyalty.

Tokyo may still be an "important" market for DL, but it is becoming a spoke in the DL system, not a hub and the traffic that was going onward from NRT to other Asian destinations that have been cut can be funneled through other hubs.

MSPeconomist

ATOBTTR

I don't foresee a complete pull-out like in HKG. For one, world geography combined with aircraft/airline economics plays a role here. HKG is a much longer flight Even from SEA - the closest major mainland US city to HKG, is 6500 miles - ~1700 miles farther than TYO. Longer flights are more economical to a point but then become more expensive to operate because the plane is so heavy, it's burning fuel at a much higher rate in the early stages of the flight. This makes the margins very thin unless DL can get a premium for it. But premiums often come on nonstops, not connections and DL and other airlines can get customers to HKG in more economical ways than long, thin flights DL's hubs.

Tokyo is also literally the largest metro area in the world, with a population of >37 million. Hong Kong's metro population is about 7.4 million, putting it in-line with Dallas-Ft Worth. I do realize population alone doesn't make a market but TYO is a market that has demand for travel both from its own population and from travel going there so while I can't say "never" here, I doubt DL would withdraw from the TYO market completely. Downsize significantly with token service to major hubs? Probably. But complete pull-out? I doubt it.

MSPeconomist

RealHJ

Well, DL certainly is not doing well.

I can't speak for other routes as I haven't been following the Delta cutbacks there, but HNL-Japan capacity has been cut several fold over the last few years.

From 4-5x daily HNL-NRT (747 and A330) it's now down to 1x daily only (!) HNL-NRT on a tiny 767-300.
From 2x daily HNL-KIX (747 and A330) it's down to 1x daily only HNL-KIX on a tiny 767-300.
HNL-NGO is still 1x daily, but also downgraded to 767-300.
HNL-FUK was also just recently canceled as of May this year. Was daily 767-300, now entirely gone as of May 6 I believe.

So in terms of frequencies it has went form 9 daily to 3 daily flights - a 66% reduction, while the actual seat number is down something 75%-80%, adjusting for the aircraft downsizing. That is a staggering decline.

Compare that to NH bringing aboard three A380s dedicated to HNL-TYO service (3x daily A380), and many others also increasing capacity on the same routes. Demand is there. It seems that most pax just make an active choice to avoid Delta and will rather pay more to any other airline than to have to fly on DL.

No wonder though. The service aboard Delta is truly poor. FAs blocking aisles while the flight is boarding, systematically impolite, little or no selection of meals in so-called Delta One [tray of meal service], where the "choices" run out by row 2 or 3, and just sub-standard food and service aboard, compared to others like JL, NH, or even HA. Heck, even on Scoot and Air Asia X one gets more pleasant FAs and on-board service, even though you pay for everything and the business class seating is not as good, as on Delta.

DL just doesn't get the Japan market (or really anywhere far outside of Atlanta much), according to FT (years ago) has fired all executives who knew the Asia region marketing well, and is just really - repeatedly - shooting itself in the foot.

MSPeconomist

RealHJ

Yes, you can. However, most pax (Japanese) have no idea of that, as I don't think that DL has their e-mail, so they never get the e-mail on that, sent a few days prior to flight. Presumably because most in Japan still book travel via TAs vs with the airline directly (and I suspect a big reason behind the DL decline in the Japan market is that DL must have done something to really upset the Japanese TAs or otherwise just isn't doing what is expected of an airline to support the TAs, as the overall traffic volumes only keep increasing, but DL is getting an ever smaller share of that).

Downside if you preorder is that some FAs won't even give you the menu then and just skip you entirely... though you do get your food when the time comes.

hockeyinsider

Don't forget that Delta code-shares the Korea flight from Tokyo-NRT–Honolulu. I presume it's covered by the joint-venture, too.

I don't remember when Delta had 5 daily flights, but for the last four or so years I only remember two evening Delta-operated flights from NRT to HNL. One was like 6 or 6:30 p.m and the other was later in the evening.

I've never had bad service between Tokyo and Honolulu, but the reduced Delta One business-class catering options, wines and even on-board amenities is noticeable and, presumably, not competitive with the business-class product offered by Asian carriers.

It also doesn't help that Hawaiian Airlines has improved its product and now benefits from its agreement with Japan Airlines.

Don't forget that Delta pulled out of Guam, Saipan and Palau, despite having contracts there with both the government and local businesses. They even had a local credit card in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. It wasn't that long ago when Delta had a Sky Club lounge at GUM (or Manila for that matter).

MSPeconomist

hockeyinsider

There are some airlines that collect the menus after you order for reuse in the future.

RealHJ

Yes, and that is the only KE flight out of HNL that you can book as an award (HNL-ICN has been totally blocked for several years now).

But the CI1/2 flight HNL-NRT is no more. That was canceled I think about a year or so ago.. (around same time CI went to A350 on HNL-TPE direct vs. the earlier A330)

I still remember ads in local magazines here saying DL 9 daily departures to Japan. HNL-NRT was typically 4x daily with NW. For a while DL scaled it up to 5x daily. Then down to 4, then down to 3, then down to 2, then down to 1.

For the longest time (decade+) I think it was 4x daily, early flights like 6 and 6:30pm out of NRT, and the more typical ones about 9pm, 10pm.

CA has the best service on HNL-PEK. 3 to 5 choices for both appetizer and main meal. Attentive crew (like a personal babbysiter for pax with kids).

Between Japan specifically, while JL also only has two options in one large bento box, the JL food quality is lightyears ahead of DL. Quantity, not that much, but JL has actual freshly made and varied snacks in-flight available, enough for a second full meal, before the very meager before-landing serving (now on that JL is as bad as DL).

Yes, back a few years ago when there was an option to get JL into SkyTeam, really unfortunate that it didn't work out...but then again, it's for the better, as that means that JL service quality and availability is not as bad as it would be if it was pulled down by ST, and with JL in SkyTeam, DL may really have totally stopped flying to Japan by now. (Look at how UA only does HNL-NRT and has no flights to CTS, KIX, NGO, FUK - anywhere else. And AA has nothing and relies on JL entirely.)

The Delta retreats have been drastic and too many to count. While other airlines are expanding and optimizing their route network, DL seems to be a full scale and rather rushed retreat, at least in this region.

At a high point DL had quite a few flights, not as many as UA, but still, including routes that some may not even know of (PUS-ROR anyone? that was use of the 757 on NRT-PUS-NRT, to avoid it sitting idle at PUS overnight... advertised there at all metro stations &c, but very short lived). I just feel bad for any ground station DL staff, as that is far too often a short-term job and then DL shuts down entirely with little notice.

ATOBTTR

Duplicate staff is probably less of the issue though maybe still a factor. But the primary issue with having split ops at HND and NRT is O&D versus onward traffic and how it impacts filling seats and flight profitability at NRT. O&D traffic is being syphoned away from NRT flights to either DL's flights to HND or to other carriers at HND. Part of the reason DL (well, what was set-up by NW) was all those flights to NRT funneled both O&D passengers and connecting passengers onward. Both types of passengers were required to make that network sustainable. Each flight into NRT had both O&D passengers bound for TYO and passengers connecting onward to other Asian destinations served from the hub. But by pulling O&D passengers off the NRT flights to HND, that's not only less seats being filled but also the premium nonstop paying passengers being pulled on top of it. I'm guessing that that would have to be negotiated between HND and Japanese and US Aviation authorities. DL and the US carriers have been given specific slots at HND, so they can't just launch night-flights at will. Then there's the economics of the night flights, which granted were run at a time when the economy wasn't as strong but nonetheless performed very poorly. The night flights out of HND resulted in a whole lost day of business for business travelers coming back to the states - even HND-LAX, departing HND around midnight landed at LAX around 6 pm (though I guess from a certain perspective, with crossing the dateline, one could argue you didn't lose a day at all ) and still required another redeye to get to the East Coast.

MSPeconomist

hockeyinsider

Delta's strategy seems to rest on owning the domestic market helped in part by big corporate contracts, fly international routes to Europe (especially to premium markets like London and Paris), and then rely on lower cost, joint-venture partners for less premium international routes that allow Delta to profit without spending any money on planes and crew.

I think up until maybe two years ago there was still significant Delta promotions in Japan. Anderson and then Bastian both claimed they were committed to Tokyo–Narita. I feel bad for the dozens, if not hundreds, of staff that were some of Delta's best who lost their jobs. Flying through there is sad; kind of like Cincinnati or Memphis.

Justin026