jinglish

I'm a PDX-based AS MVP who is planning on moving to SEA in the near future and is likely to status match over to DL SM in the second half of next year, and thanks to the AmEx MQD waivers and 100% MQM earnings on many partners I should have a much easier time attaining GM than I would MVP Gold... but I probably won't get there for about a year after the match.

Since I'm solely a leisure traveler and I tend to book relatively far in advance, I've had excellent luck with F upgrades on AS, missing only one in the last year, although I know I'll have less success on AS flying from SEA than PDX. But so far my experience with DL upgrades is limited to one anecdote--on my one domestic DL trip before the breakup I managed upgrades on 2/4 segments even as a lowly AS elite--so I figured I'd ask you guys: how tough will it be for a Silver who tends to book relatively far in advance to get upgraded? I'm assuming SEA-ATL will be basically impossible, but I'd hope that I'd have at least some shot on the directs down the coast or non-hub transcons.

jrl767

commuting SEA<-->WAS about twice a month for most of the last three years as a PM (95% self-funded, probably 75% purchased less than two weeks out), I have scored a few UGs on midweek redeyes to JFK/DTW/ATL (and sunrise returns), and two on SEA<-->LAX in the past three months

I have also been 18 of 70+ for two F seats on a Thurs evening for WAS-ATL-SEA, with a ticket purchased less than three days out ... situations like that are what have driven me to being in the WFBF camp

MarkCron

I would not expect any upgrades as a DL Silver flying east.
Not sure about the coastal routes.

taxicabnumber

Coastal routes, at least anecdotally, are far easier. I was SFO-based until recently, and I've been on plenty of SEA-SFO/SJC/LAX flights (including multiple Sunday evening flights) where there were so few elites that F went out with seats empty. Anything other than Monday morning and Thursday evening and you've got a great shot.

The Situation

At the moment, you have decent upgrade odds to F and almost guaranteed to C+ on flights up and down the coast and within the PNW. I wouldn't expect more than a middle C+ seat upgrade on a flight to a hub and even the non-hub TCONs are difficult. Delta sells F for cheap and Seattle, being an affluent area, people just buy it. Delta's new management does not want to give away F seats for free, so as time goes on, I would only expect upgrades to get tougher and tougher. Booking far in advance really doesn't help your cause as much as booking class, and even then you will still have dozens of GM, PM and DM ahead of you. I flew through ATL off-peak last week and there were 50+ people on the upgrade list. That being said, anything can happen and plenty of anecdotes as such, but I think the average of all anecdotes would indicate you need to keep your expectations low.

CKDGM

Depends on your routing and time. SEA-DTW Friday morning? I was 16th on the upgrade list as a DM last Friday. WFBF is your best shot; sometimes the G/A/P fares are pretty close to the coach pricing.

North-south routes are easier; I suspect that AS attracts a lot of the folks who fly those all the time, so ex-SEA the elite traffic is split between DL and AS (and probably some UA into SFO). I almost always clear SEA-SJC.

LonghaulCommuter

Never failed to be upgraded on coastal runs to and from SEA.

PirateJeff

As a FO out of SEA you will get upgrades on SEA-SMF, sometimes SEA-PHX, and other non-hub smaller airports. I've seen it with SEA-SFO on occasion.

For the most part you need to be a DM to get regular upgrades. I'm usually 1 or 2 of 1 or 2 seats for routes into any hub or transcon.

Bear4Asian

I fly SEA-YVR frequently and get upgraded quite often for this very short flight.

I fly SEA-MSP a few times a year and upgrades are very rare for this Platinum.

jiburi

I'm afraid there isn't much benefit flying DL as SM. Aside from one additional free baggage allowance, F upgrades chances are near 0, except for west-coast routes. Your chances is slight better for C+ but that's also not a guarantee. I often use my FO (old name for Silver, Flying Orchid) for early exit row seating.

I did get one SEA-JFK upgrade last year but that's after flight was significant delayed, and everyone booked away from the flight. Only then, might you have a shot at F.

Personally, I wouldn't waste your effort on a SM match, as the benefit gain is too little. DL AMEX will provide you with one additional free baggage and priority boarding. You can only get a lifetime match to DL program once, why would you want to waste it for a SM status?

Jiburi

jk88usa

Not sure how you manage to do so well as an MVP, but congrats you’re doing far better than me

anyways between the 2 I do far better on DL upgrades as a silver than AS upgrades as an MVP. I fly a ton between DEN and SEA and only get upgraded on Saturdays on AS, it’s fairly spread out on DL (though if I clear it’s always at the gate...never at the window).

That being said it really depends on the routes you’re flying to. If it’s transcon or midcon, your odds are pretty abysmal either way but I’d recommend AS, I’ve gotten a few surprise upgrades as MVP before but on DL anywhere mid or transcon out of SEA I’m usually 20th+ on the list. Even as Gold on DL unless you’re doing West Coast flying it’ll be rough out of the hubs

jinglish

Friday evening and Saturday flights help a lot--I'm with mostly other leisure travelers and just not competing against too many Golds and 75Ks, and on one E75 PDX-BUR the plane went out with empty F seats--and early bookings help keep me ahead of the other MVPs on cheap fares. I've even managed to get upgraded on a Friday SEA-BNA and Monday morning DTW-SEA, so I have my fingers crossed I'll still get the odd upgrade before I move over.

As much as I like AS, though, sticking with them just isn't an option if I want to consistently maintain status. MVP has gotten me more perks than DL Silver will, but 25-50% EQM earnings on most cheap partner fares aren't terribly helpful: I flew almost 45k miles last year on AS and partners but only got about 30k in EQMs, and that was with an AA international trip while we still earned 100% on all paid coach fares! I've done the math, and given my travel plans next year it'll be hard to requalify unless I make my trips revolve around DE's SEA schedule and go on a mileage run. Y+, J, or domestic F fares would definitely help, but I'm mostly hesitant to buy those until I have my student loans fully squared away.

As I said in the OP, I'm not matching with the intent of staying at Silver; my 2019 travel plans should get me to GM without even going very far out of my way to fly DL, and between rollover MQMs and the (hopefully not disappearing) AmEx MQD waiver and bonus MQMs, I shouldn't have any trouble staying there even when I decide to burn some of my AS miles or fly somewhere not well-served by SkyTeam. Good point on saving the match for the future, though; I might wind up going without status for the six months or so it'd take me to qualify for FO organically.

guam17

I'm a SEA GM, here are my upgrade stats so far this year:

FC: BOI (12/12), GEG (6/6), RDM (2/2), EUG (2/2), LAX (2/4), SLC (1/8), DEN (2/2), MSP (0/2) SAC (2/2), HNL (0/2). I haven't gotten FC upgrades onwards out of SLC or MSP.

C+: Everything else except HNL (middle seat for all the hub flights).

I think down the coast you should get some, certainly anything regional you'd have a great shot, I wouldn't expect any upgrades on anything longer than that, though.

If you want to get an upgrade to FC from SEA as a silver, just fly to Boise! But, then you have to go to Boise...