Why can't DL fly from SFO Bay Area to ORD?
Sep 8, 2017, 3:41 pm
#46
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SJC
Programs: DL PM MM, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 3,276
Sep 8, 2017, 7:27 pm
#47
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
Thanks to all for the thoughts. Frankly, if you think you're any good, and competitive, you look for an opportunity to prove it. Look at what DL has done with the SFO-JFK route. It used to be dominated by AA, with UA nearly equal.
Now, UA has abandoned the route and AA is almost a bit player (Virgin helped on that). DL has 8 big 757's with wonderful coffin Delta 1 seats in Business First, flying SFO-JFK daily. My wife and I think they are terrific. DL was nowhere like this 5 - 10 years ago. And I don't believe it's because DL became so dominant at JFK (but it could have).
I would bet the north 40 that if DL could get viable slots at ORD, they would think about it. Hub or not, the SFO bay area is the number 4 market in the country, if you concede that NY, LA, and Chicago are ahead. That's a lot of flying pax. Those of us in the Bay Area have been desperate for years to see somebody give comeuppance and competition to UA, who has gotten away with taking us for granted and damn near abuses us with the way they have handled IRROPS and such.
DL proved they could smoke the other guys on SFO-JFK. Why not shake 'em all up and do it on a route between two major markets (SFO-ORD? Hubs are a big deal, but are they truly everything? I hope not. WN's business model did well with direct point service. You basically just needed a chance to prove to the world you could do a good job. I believe there are a lot of DL loyal flyers in the SF Bay Area who would support flying to ORD, and do it with their dollars.
Sure, DL's nearby hubs a MSP and DTW are way too close, and they have superb international feeding connections. I'm wondering if the carrier can break out of the mind-set that everything has to be building bulk through hub connections. This is a viable opportunity, IMHO, and I hope the poster who said that it is slots that are holding everything up is not the case. I would love to see SFO-ORD on DL.
Heck, if we all take a step back and look at LAX----UA, AA, and DL are all telling the world that LAX is their focus city or hub. Can one airport be a "hub" for so many carriers? I would like to see an ambitious carrier, like DL, bet big on itself and provide its good service between major markets. I'd bet they'd kick A$$.
Now, UA has abandoned the route and AA is almost a bit player (Virgin helped on that). DL has 8 big 757's with wonderful coffin Delta 1 seats in Business First, flying SFO-JFK daily. My wife and I think they are terrific. DL was nowhere like this 5 - 10 years ago. And I don't believe it's because DL became so dominant at JFK (but it could have).
I would bet the north 40 that if DL could get viable slots at ORD, they would think about it. Hub or not, the SFO bay area is the number 4 market in the country, if you concede that NY, LA, and Chicago are ahead. That's a lot of flying pax. Those of us in the Bay Area have been desperate for years to see somebody give comeuppance and competition to UA, who has gotten away with taking us for granted and damn near abuses us with the way they have handled IRROPS and such.
DL proved they could smoke the other guys on SFO-JFK. Why not shake 'em all up and do it on a route between two major markets (SFO-ORD? Hubs are a big deal, but are they truly everything? I hope not. WN's business model did well with direct point service. You basically just needed a chance to prove to the world you could do a good job. I believe there are a lot of DL loyal flyers in the SF Bay Area who would support flying to ORD, and do it with their dollars.
Sure, DL's nearby hubs a MSP and DTW are way too close, and they have superb international feeding connections. I'm wondering if the carrier can break out of the mind-set that everything has to be building bulk through hub connections. This is a viable opportunity, IMHO, and I hope the poster who said that it is slots that are holding everything up is not the case. I would love to see SFO-ORD on DL.
Heck, if we all take a step back and look at LAX----UA, AA, and DL are all telling the world that LAX is their focus city or hub. Can one airport be a "hub" for so many carriers? I would like to see an ambitious carrier, like DL, bet big on itself and provide its good service between major markets. I'd bet they'd kick A$$.
In reality, it is getting destroyer on both of those markets.
In the former, UA crushed it by unloading a lot of premium capacity in the market on the same day DL started service. DL started out with twice a day, but can't sell its D1 seat for more than $650 O/W and the J cabin in the morning BOS flights are still more than half empty 2 or 3 days out. Now, it's down to less than that in a lot of the weeks. In the winter months, it's down to once a day. This is when UA is at 6 a day and B6 is at 5 a day.
And in the latter, it was running at 3 a day in the summer time on a hub to hub route. Theoretically it should be doing well on a route where it has a lot of corporate contract on both side, but it's down to 11 per week in the winter time (my guess is it will be cut to once a day). This is while AA is up to 6 a day and B6 is 4 a day.
as for JFK-SFO, i think DL made a decision a while back to "dominate NYC" and has devote a lot of resources to be the market leader. It took several years before it started making money. Even now, it still has the lower margin in NYC than UA/AA/B6.
DL does fly some outstation to outstation routes like SFO - BOS, SJC - LAS, and CLE - BDL (flown them all). DL has seen the ability to make money by not routing everything through SEA/LAX/SLC/MSP/DTW/CVG/ATL/LGA/JFK. But, as many have said flying SFO - ORD is the equivalent of putting money into a fire pit and using it to roast some marshmellows. There is no opportunity to be had.
CLE-BDL has no major dominating carrier on either end.
Sep 8, 2017, 8:45 pm
#48
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SJC
Programs: DL PM MM, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 3,276
In the former, UA crushed it by unloading a lot of premium capacity in the market on the same day DL started service. DL started out with twice a day, but can't sell its D1 seat for more than $650 O/W and the J cabin in the morning BOS flights are still more than half empty 2 or 3 days out. Now, it's down to less than that in a lot of the weeks. In the winter months, it's down to once a day. This is when UA is at 6 a day and B6 is at 5 a day.
as for JFK-SFO, i think DL made a decision a while back to "dominate NYC" and has devote a lot of resources to be the market leader. It took several years before it started making money. Even now, it still has the lower margin in NYC than UA/AA/B6.
BOS is a hub city and it's getting crushed on SFO-BOS. CLE-BDL has no major dominating carrier on either end.
as for JFK-SFO, i think DL made a decision a while back to "dominate NYC" and has devote a lot of resources to be the market leader. It took several years before it started making money. Even now, it still has the lower margin in NYC than UA/AA/B6.
BOS is a hub city and it's getting crushed on SFO-BOS. CLE-BDL has no major dominating carrier on either end.
I think JFK-SFO, DL has the highest ratio a Y to J/F than AA/UA/B6, so it would be a lower yield than their competition. AA actually flies an F cabin on these routes.
How is BOS a hub? Where do you make connections to? Where does the feed come from? It's not like you can fly BOS-BGR/RKD/BHB or something like that on DL.
Sep 8, 2017, 8:53 pm
#49
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 6,712
I don't think BOS-SFO is making anyone money these days. UA still needs to fill all those seats up front as well and while they have a real hub at SFO, it's still a lot of seats.
I think JFK-SFO, DL has the highest ratio a Y to J/F than AA/UA/B6, so it would be a lower yield than their competition. AA actually flies an F cabin on these routes.
How is BOS a hub? Where do you make connections to? Where does the feed come from? It's not like you can fly BOS-BGR/RKD/BHB or something like that on DL.
I think JFK-SFO, DL has the highest ratio a Y to J/F than AA/UA/B6, so it would be a lower yield than their competition. AA actually flies an F cabin on these routes.
How is BOS a hub? Where do you make connections to? Where does the feed come from? It's not like you can fly BOS-BGR/RKD/BHB or something like that on DL.
Sep 8, 2017, 9:52 pm
#50
Join Date: May 2006
Location: GA
Programs: VA-PLT, QF-GLD, DL-GM, UA-ex1K, AA-exPLT, HH-DM, IHG-PLT, MR-GLD
Posts: 8,242
Sep 9, 2017, 4:58 am
#51
Join Date: Dec 2016
Posts: 1,485
I don't think BOS-SFO is making anyone money these days. UA still needs to fill all those seats up front as well and while they have a real hub at SFO, it's still a lot of seats.
I think JFK-SFO, DL has the highest ratio a Y to J/F than AA/UA/B6, so it would be a lower yield than their competition. AA actually flies an F cabin on these routes.
How is BOS a hub? Where do you make connections to? Where does the feed come from? It's not like you can fly BOS-BGR/RKD/BHB or something like that on DL.
I think JFK-SFO, DL has the highest ratio a Y to J/F than AA/UA/B6, so it would be a lower yield than their competition. AA actually flies an F cabin on these routes.
How is BOS a hub? Where do you make connections to? Where does the feed come from? It's not like you can fly BOS-BGR/RKD/BHB or something like that on DL.
http://news.delta.com/boston-logan-i...onal-airport-0
Scott Kirby seems really aggressive about defending existing UA hubs. So I think any attempt to enter ORD-SFO/LAX will be met with some pretty aggressive adds from UA.
Sep 9, 2017, 6:10 am
#52
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 6,712
Delta is calling BOS a hub.
http://news.delta.com/boston-logan-i...onal-airport-0
Scott Kirby seems really aggressive about defending existing UA hubs. So I think any attempt to enter ORD-SFO/LAX will be met with some pretty aggressive adds from UA.
http://news.delta.com/boston-logan-i...onal-airport-0
Scott Kirby seems really aggressive about defending existing UA hubs. So I think any attempt to enter ORD-SFO/LAX will be met with some pretty aggressive adds from UA.
I think DL's reputation among business travelers allows them to try O/D routes that the others wouldn't. It only makes sense though where yields can be relatively high, and there is 0/1 competitor.
Sep 9, 2017, 8:50 am
#53
Join Date: May 2017
Programs: DL DM, 1MM
Posts: 15
[QUOTE=tphuang;28794421]If you want to know what would happen if DL gets into SFO-ORD and LAX-ORD, then you simply need to look at what's going on at BOS-SFO and BOS-LAX. DL should theoretically be more successful in both cases, because the former is a hub to important out station where it has some tech based corporate clients and the latter is a hub to hub station.
Slightly off topic, but speaking of LAX and flights to UA hubs, DL will eventually need to operate LAX-ORD/IAH if they want to become the true no. 1 carrier in LA. Yields are garbage on both routes (UA, AA, AS, NK, WN to MDW/HOU), but these are two of the most glaring holes in DL's network both at LAX and as a whole.
I have heard grumblings from DL leadership at LAX that these will be two of the first routes started once the CS comes on line.
Slightly off topic, but speaking of LAX and flights to UA hubs, DL will eventually need to operate LAX-ORD/IAH if they want to become the true no. 1 carrier in LA. Yields are garbage on both routes (UA, AA, AS, NK, WN to MDW/HOU), but these are two of the most glaring holes in DL's network both at LAX and as a whole.
I have heard grumblings from DL leadership at LAX that these will be two of the first routes started once the CS comes on line.
Sep 9, 2017, 9:55 am
#54
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: SJC
Programs: DL PM MM, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 3,276
Slightly off topic, but speaking of LAX and flights to UA hubs, DL will eventually need to operate LAX-ORD/IAH if they want to become the true no. 1 carrier in LA. Yields are garbage on both routes (UA, AA, AS, NK, WN to MDW/HOU), but these are two of the most glaring holes in DL's network both at LAX and as a whole.
I have heard grumblings from DL leadership at LAX that these will be two of the first routes started once the CS comes on line.
I have heard grumblings from DL leadership at LAX that these will be two of the first routes started once the CS comes on line.
Sep 9, 2017, 11:35 am
#55
Join Date: Sep 2015
Programs: UA Million Mile, Mileage Plus Premier 1K, SkyMiles Gold Medallion, AAdvantage Gold
Posts: 875
I apologize if I have a flair for the obvious, but it pains me every time I get screwed on a flight on either AA or UA trying to get to ORD. Any carrier can have a mechanical issue or other unforeseen problem, but DL, IMHO, has always been the best in getting a manager out there and kick butt to solve problems.
After getting screwed by nearly any carrier while flying mega mega millions of miles, over the years, I have always despaired that the carriers were all the same---just different paint on the planes. But DL has, by the way they strive to get me to my destination on time, even in adversity, won me over long ago
So, I would love to have a DL option in getting to ORD from SFO, SJC, or even OAK. Anybody have a better grasp of history than I on this? I have been a FT contributor and lurker for about 2 decades.
After getting screwed by nearly any carrier while flying mega mega millions of miles, over the years, I have always despaired that the carriers were all the same---just different paint on the planes. But DL has, by the way they strive to get me to my destination on time, even in adversity, won me over long ago
So, I would love to have a DL option in getting to ORD from SFO, SJC, or even OAK. Anybody have a better grasp of history than I on this? I have been a FT contributor and lurker for about 2 decades.
Neither SFO or ORD is a hub for DL. If they started SFO-ORD, UA would respond by flying ATL-DTW. Then, both airlines would kill each others profits. DL is also smart enough not to get involved in a fight with UA/AA/WN in Chicago. They don't even fly to ORD from their LAX hub or their BOS and RDU focus cities. SFO is lucky to have seasonal service to HNL as a non-hub service.
Also, many of the UA ORD-SFO flights have lie-flats up front. If you fly that many miles every year, I am assuming you are flying in those seats at least some of the time.
Sep 9, 2017, 11:37 am
#56
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: SJC/YUL
Programs: DL PM, Marriott Gold
Posts: 3,878
DL most has plenty of options from ORD to SFO, SJC, and OAK. You will just need to change planes in SLC.
Neither SFO or ORD is a hub for DL. If they started SFO-ORD, UA would respond by flying ATL-DTW. Then, both airlines would kill each others profits. DL is also smart enough not to get involved in a fight with UA/AA/WN in Chicago. They don't even fly to ORD from their LAX hub or their BOS and RDU focus cities. SFO is lucky to have seasonal service to HNL as a non-hub service.
Also, many of the UA ORD-SFO flights have lie-flats up front. If you fly that many miles every year, I am assuming you are flying in those seats at least some of the time.
Neither SFO or ORD is a hub for DL. If they started SFO-ORD, UA would respond by flying ATL-DTW. Then, both airlines would kill each others profits. DL is also smart enough not to get involved in a fight with UA/AA/WN in Chicago. They don't even fly to ORD from their LAX hub or their BOS and RDU focus cities. SFO is lucky to have seasonal service to HNL as a non-hub service.
Also, many of the UA ORD-SFO flights have lie-flats up front. If you fly that many miles every year, I am assuming you are flying in those seats at least some of the time.
Sep 9, 2017, 11:44 am
#57
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: LAX
Programs: UA MM | BA Silver
Posts: 7,193
If you want to know what would happen if DL gets into SFO-ORD and LAX-ORD, then you simply need to look at what's going on at BOS-SFO and BOS-LAX. DL should theoretically be more successful in both cases, because the former is a hub to important out station where it has some tech based corporate clients and the latter is a hub to hub station.
I have heard grumblings from DL leadership at LAX that these will be two of the first routes started once the CS comes on line.
Sep 9, 2017, 12:17 pm
#58
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: MIA
Programs: AA EXP (AC), DL G (SC), Bonvoy LTP, & IHG AMB
Posts: 1,798
DL follows the money. Or at least, where it thinks it can find the money, e.g. recent expansion in BOS to PIT, AUS, MCI. There is no DL services between ORD and SFO; hence DL does not believe that there is money to be found on this route.
Sep 9, 2017, 7:27 pm
#59
Join Date: May 2015
Location: DCA
Programs: AA EXP, DL FO, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 6,712
Not the right aircraft for a route like that. The same costs as an A320, but fewer passengers. With how bad the yields would be, I doubt that DL would make any money. The CS100 on the other hand could potentially work.