gooselee

Low MQD-per-MQM people are by definition flying longer routes or routes with connections on cheaper tickets for the most part. OTOH, high MQD-per-MQM, are flying shorter routes or nonstop routes on more expensive tickets. This would be me, paying $600 RT for ATL-CMH ticket.

We can talk about edge cases with Amex boosts or funky partner credits or whatever - but I tend to think that by and large its relatively safe to make these en masse calculations by defaulting to the simplest situations.

All put together, I would suspect that some DMs will have been trimmed from domestic "commuter" flights to/from hubs, but not nearly as many as are being trimmed from long haul Intl flights. And most of the trimming on those domestic flights will be of people who are not hub-captives and are on connecting itineraries.

TL;DR - I suspect that the DMs commonly found on M88s and 717s will not notice much of a difference.

flyerUSA

Ok so to bottom-line it for our particular routes...do you expect to have better upgrade success bc of this change or would it be unchanged?

My most common route is LAX/JFK, maybe the toughest route for upgrades imho. Would you expect any noticeable changes on my flights?

pvn

I usually book KQMish but not always. And "those" diamonds may have been usually buying LUTXV but again, probably not always.

I don't think those numbers are accurate, and I don't think it's going to be a massive difference this year, but I do think it will be noticable.

bennos

Probably not. That route gets a lot of paid J (they're not running 40J 764s for the coach capacity), so 0 open seats means it doesn't matter whether you're DM or PM. When there are, say, 2-5 open seats it seems like the top few go to RUCs, which are still available to PM. So I guess somewhat fewer RUCs chasing open seats, but as a DM I've failed to clear these routes with certs listed, and I expect to continue to fail to clear these routes much of the time.

flyerUSA

Ok yeah same expectations and experience here. Sometimes as a DM on an M fare I'm still #13 on a list of 50 and there's only 2 lucky winners. Not too optimistic for any improvement there.

Unless maybe the disgruntled demoted platinums leave Delta altogether and stop hogging the upgrades with their certs. ::dream::

TheMadBrewer

That is me -- I do 6 or 7 TATL trips from LAX -- often with a connection so probably 12K+ MQM per trip. One or two of those might be discounted J -- if I find a good deal -- otherwise cheap Y tickets bought 8-10+ weeks in advance. Before this past year there were numerous trips to ATL (some FCM) and the occasional trip to SEA/YVR. So I'll drop to PM this year but you won't find me on your ATL-CMH or MSP-BIL flight. Even as DM I rarely got upgraded on the LAX-ATL/DTW/MSP/JFK legs without use of GUC/RUC so I usually wasn't taking anybody's upgrade. I will most definitely miss the GUCs and the OpUps (usually 1 or 2 a year. All travel is on my dime.

A small part of me is not unhappy with the downgrade -- as I get nearer to 65 the travel has gotten a bit harder. Since I knew I wouldn't make $15K MQD or $250K Amex this year I combined trips -- Prague/Berlin and Copenhagen/Stockholm with a train in-between. This year I'll probably combine Dublin/London and maybe others. Less business for Delta. If I knew a wavier was possible I might have gone for 125K MQM (ended up at 100K) for one more of DM.

When the $250K waiver was announced I did play with the numbers a bit $15K MQD is $1250/month -- which I could totally afford (yes it's a bit more in actual ticket prices). Then I went to buy my first ticket last year: LAX-DUB was $600 for the lowest regular fare offered. I could have paid $1500 for a higher fare bucket and more MQDs but I would have had the same seat, the same meal, the same MQMs so it seemed like a waste. I spent the money on a nicer hotel room

iflyalexair

This DM and his husband are *always* on LUTXV fares from NYC. And in recent history, we have either been upgraded at the window or have been #1/2 on the list. This includes JFK-West Coast with Delta One.

I'm always surprised I'm that high on the list.

rogo

The discussion included "a mix of Y and J". Anyone paying J at all frequently is "nicely profitable" for Delta.

I'm going to, however, exit this discussion here. It seems no one can be rational about this conversation beyond their own narrow interest.

I really thought I was succeeding in going beyond my own narrow interest, but as every single post is picked apart, I'm going to leave it here.

Everyone who thinks the new waiver is good is right.
Everything who thinks the new waiver is awful is right.

bergamini

They key is not to apply too much love, hate or judgement to any decision a large corporation makes. I find it works best to just accept it. OK, here are the program T&C, and then I figure where I fit in and if it's worth it for me to stay there. And if it's not I move on. Most people want the program to be tailored to them or that their airline have the best of everything, like ripping Delta's catering but ignoring that their operations and hard product is superior. Life is better when you just accept it and analyze the best way to maximize your status. Or move on. I flew LUV for several years and that was fun and different.

pvn

this is basically correct. ultimately, delta is trying to shape the numbers. they have lots of knobs they can turn and they have a pretty decent idea of how much effect each of them have.

if they feel there are too many DMs, they turn knobs to tighten things up. the fact that some DMs will get "screwed" by this is completely irrelevant in Delta's opinion, they get the number they want and they're happy. there will be some winners and some losers, it's all incidental, nobody is being singled out, there are just arbitrary metrics and if you hit them you win and if you don't you lose. it's that simple.

FF524

Said it once, will say it again - what you have spent with a company in the past is truly of zero value to them. The "love" they share in credential swag, upgrades or some other recognition is done with one purpose and one purpose only, to get you to come back and buy again. If Delta or any other org dials back their swag or bennies - then yes, you can take it to mean that your stock value in their eyes has decreased and their data suggests that the investments they are willing to make to retain you are better suited on others. Nothing personal in this of course.

The tweaks that Delta continues to make to their programs are done with the simple intent of extracting dollars. While there are always a few collateral casualties with policy changes and illogical exceptions can be pointed out, the policy changes are done based on data and intent. We have seen this with the movement of the SkyClub from a benefit to a profit center. Same goes for upgrades. What can be monetized has or is being monetized and if there happens to be some leftover capacity, then fine, they will throw the bones out and label them as value adding benefits.

TheHorta

FBplatinum

Sorry, I did not follow your point...
Are you in the good place ?

bubbashow

I am just a firm believer that when everyone is "elite", nobody is.

sky_priority