KDCAflyer

I don't have the exact numbers, but most of these new routes are standing on their own, AFAIK.

pvn

Right, this is the thing. There are a very finite number of slots. DL can't just send as many planes as they want. So it's not just a question of "will this route be profitable? it's a question of "will this route be MORE profitable than any other possible route we could add?"

DA201

I know this route was only offered so they could get the slots, but I honestly don't know where they will use it. Although the stake in VS has helped, they still struggle in London. I know load factors are not everything, but DL had relatively low loads on its LHR routes in July 2016 (peak TATL month). PHL-LHR had 57%, JFK-LHR had 74%, and BOS-LHR had 67%. No route was above 93%. Compare that to Virgin Atlantic which had no route below 82% (which was MIA and gets more traffic in the winter), and their JFK-LHR had 86% and BOS-LHR had 87%. Remember, that is the best month for those routes. During low months (Feb 2016) no LHR route was above 56% for DL, PHL-LHR was at 16%, and DTW-LHR was at 34%. VS has over half of its routes above 60%. DL should stick to CDG/AMS so they have connecting traffic and let VS handle all of the LHR routes to non-DL hubs (ex. DL should not fly seasonal PDX-LHR and should either drop the route or use VS metal).

For people saying PIT or IND, they are very unlikely due to O&D being very low and little connecting traffic. CVG has the best chance because it at least has a tad of connecting traffic and a less than daily flight could maybe work.

Someone else mentioned RDU-LHR, but I doubt that would work since AA already has a flight, which only works due to connecting traffic onto BA.

TheBOSman

This is basically how AA and BA operate from LHR. AA flies more of the traffic from their hubs (particularly ORD/DFW/CLT, they are roughly equal from JFK/LAX/MIA/PHL). BA flies to non-AA hubs (BOS, AUS, IAH, ATL, SEA, SFO, etc.). The AA RDU route is the one exception to this since AA dropped their BOS-LHR flights several years ago.

There are almost no VS connections beyond LHR coming from the USA at this point compared to how it used to be. VS flies to exactly six non-USA points from LHR: DEL, DXB, HKG, JNB, LOS, and PVG. PVG and HKG aren't going to attract many connections from the USA via LHR, and DL already serves both via the Pacific on their own metal anyway. So, any DL flight to LHR has to survive on LHR local traffic and connections to DEL/DXB/JNB/LOS. DL serves JNB and LOS itself via ATL, never mind the ability to connect through CDG or AMS. So, any DL flight to LHR arguably survives on LHR local traffic and connections to DEL and DXB, both of which can be connected through AMS and CDG or flown nonstop on a number of routes with AI or EK. DL should focus on XXX-hub-LHR and hub-LHR traffic, connecting people through ATL/DTW/JFK in addition to the local markets. They basically can't rely on connections through LHR, and any connection through LHR is better done through ATL or CDG or AMS.

CosmosHuman

I remember when CO had a seasonal route CLE-LHR. I now fly out of PIT as it's better for me for personal reasons. BF in PIT 'burb watches Cosmo, my JRT when I travel.
My choices to LHR are basically JFK or ATL. I prefer not to backtrack by using DTW. When I fly to CDG it's the same. Why does VS have such high loads?

SFO777

I believe CLE-LHR was year round for a couple of year in CO's heyday. They even operated CLE-CDG seasonally one year.

CosmosHuman

You are most right. I was confusing the seasonal PIT-CDG flight.

flyerCO

It would violate DL pilot agreement to drop below X hours tp/from LHR om DL metal.

amanuensis

I recall seeing a thread on FT about DL cancelling plans for SLC-LHR to operate year round, and instead for it to return to being seasonal. Given the additional slots soon to be available, I hope Delta reconsiders.

LHR-SLC flights in the wintertime certainly seems to be a logical skier route (although Switzerland is nearer) and SLC-LHR in the summertime for the tourists. And corporate travel both ways year round. I know the people who work for my employer are doing their bit to make the route profitable for DL.

DLMiddleSeats

Hi all, please forgive typos in my posts as I have to type it on my phone.

Yes DL could get some revenue premium out of CVG/IND on a direct flight. But the numbers that someone at DL has that I certainly don't would have to add up. I'm guessing virtually all of the CVG/IND-LHR fliers would be people not flying DL on the connection...there will be a few new people but I doubt it would lead to a huge influx of new DL passengers. So the questions are, can DL make up the connecting passengers from other cities and Is the Revenue premium high enough to offset the loss of those connecting pax.

Obviously there are many more questions, but those two are often over looked.

My money is on an AM BOS/LHR flight

Keith2004

There certainly is zeal for this slot to go to a mid-size Midwest city, and I understand the desire to have a flight like this in one's home town,

But reality is the flight will most likely go to add frequency at a Hub, or a major city with Huge O&D. (Major cities do not include IND, PIT, CVG, RDU)

rwoman

Unlikely, but I'd love to see VS start LHR-AUS and give BA some competition.

PV_Premier

bummed to see LHR-PHL go away but i'm not surprised. i flew it a couple of times and the load factors in coach were poor. business was usually full, but not sure how many of those were upgrades/miles/employees.

as for RDU-LHR that is a flight my dad would take if offered. he lives in GSO and would favor the nonstop over having to hop through ATL. his company is quite large and they have a contract with DL and pay for J at basically any price. many of them already fly the RDU-CDG flight.

flyerCO

I'd like LHR-SAT. Compete with BA but to SAT instead of AUS. SAT v AUS offering choice for which part of I35 corridor you need. Alas i know it's daydreaming either way.

woodford02A

Is it a requirement that this slot in question is used for a U.S. flight? Could VS use it for LHR-Asia, Middle East, Africa, etc?