urww

Hi folks! I need to get to California from Hawaii (HNL, LIH, KOA) in mid May (departure on The or Mon). I'm Diamond. How do you think what are my chances for scoring comp upgrade?

I see various aircraft operating. There is 763 HNL-LAX with lie-flats (smaller version) with the most convenient departure from HNL. Though I guess it would be filled with paid pax. Looks like very unlikely to get upgraded. Other flights are by 752 and 753 (6 rows domestic first). 753 is operating least convenient red-eye.

flyerCO

The 767 is DL611 which is the direct flight to Nagoya, Japan via HNL. Thus you have to compete not just with those wanting a lay-flat LAX-HNL, but those flying on to NGO. Actually the only reason the lay-flat flies this route is because of the direct flight to NGO. It's one of the few direct flights that you're actually on the same aircraft for both segments.

urww

flyerCO, yep, indeed the chances are slim for 763 operated flight (besides the best product it's also best timed flight). My understanding, the best bet is 753 red eye. Though I had never taken HI-CA flight before, so wanted to know first hand experience of other flyers.

third_wave

There is lots of paid F on HNL-LAX. I would suggest just choosing the most convenient time rather than deciding based on upgrade odds. For example, I would never take a red eye simply because I thought I might get upgraded.

KDCAflyer

You could always apply a RUC, and then SDC to the flight you want (assuming the cert clears in advance).

urww

That's a reason why I'm asking. I'm not familiar with the market and its seasonality at all. I've been to Hawaii once before, but I was getting there from Europe via Seoul. From outside it looks like heavily leisure market, so guess there wouldn't be strong demand for premium cabin seats. For instance, both of my flights ICN-HNL and HNL-ICN were full in economy and completely empty in business (HNL-ICN 3 pax in business besides me for 333).

To put it in perspective. If I'm told there are 70% chances of getting upgraded I would buy DL coach. Otherwise would book AS first (which are available for reasonable $400, too bad my flights are post 5/01/17).

I hate red eye not less than you, however if we don't take 763 operated (which is twice the price in coach and 20% more in first) I have only 2 options 752 at 7.00 am and red eye 753. 7 am departure not much better than red eye for me.

kop84

The upside of the 763 flight is that it's early enough in the morning that many places can't connect to the flight. And the ones that do leave right around 6AM local time, which for many people means getting up at 3AM, which is a non-starter for many people before leaving for a Hawaiian vacation.

355F1

I fly to Maui every year and have been upgraded on every LAX-HNL/OGG-LAX flight as a DM.

mpheels

Over the past few years, I've had incredible (~75%) success with upgrades to/from HNL as an FO. Most flights were mid-January, but one trip was mid-March (peak spring break).

HLT1904

I flew delta 417 HNL-LAX flight a couple weeks ago and was upgraded, but they did not upgrade me until time of boarding. The flight left HNL around 12 and it was lie-flat. Reading the earlier posts in this thread I was fairly lucky given the product. My flight in was to KOA and was upgraded on it as well. I know this is not definitive, just saying there's chance.

The Situation

I have only flown from SEA, but I would imagine its a similar situation. There aren't a lot of medallions on those flights. The problem (if you are banking on an upgrade) is that people buy F (cash/miles) for their flights to HI. You might luck out and the flight may fly with open F seats even after all the medallions and non-revs get upgraded, or F will be full of paid pax and nobody will get upgraded. Unfortunately with 4 months to go, just never know.

Night Flyer

I fly this route at least monthly, sometimes biweekly, and it's very much a YMMV situation. Overall I'm upgraded a bit more than 50% of the time as a PM, and this seems to hold true whether it's the 763 flight or one of the 757/739 flights. Your chances as a DM should be significantly greater. I'm usually somewhere between 2 and 6 on the upgrade list.

That said if the 763 is the only upgrade you want (and I agree of course it's the most valuable) it's entirely going to depend on the load on the day. Last week it was showing F1 on Flight 417 for a week prior to the flight, and F0 for the 24 hours before checkin. There was a late equipment change (different version of the 763) and I woke up to an email confirmation that I and my companion had both been upgraded.

I would say very generally that your observation about the redeye being the most upgrade-friendly is correct, based on my experiences, although of course if you DON'T get upgraded you're still on the redeye. Personally, I don't find the experience of being in first on that flight significantly different from being in one of the two coach seats in row 14.

As always there's just no way to be sure.

sogi

The upgrade dynamics for this route have changed a lot in the past year, with a double whammy of companions upgraded at higher priority + more aggressive FCM. Having tracked many flights @ T-10 days, what used to be half empty FC cabins all have 1-2 seats open now.

Anecdotally, just flew this route last week. On both trips, there were like ~10 people on the upgrade list, but 6-8 of them were at DM priority. Yes, this meant DM's didn't get upgraded on both.

I think in the past, people rather sit together, and would drop fairly low in priority. Not anymore.

nikitta28

Ive never not made the UG

Sjondorn

I've flown SJC-LAX-HNL this in October in paid F (LAX-HNL was in 757, the way back 767 with Delta One). Did not notice any upgrades and F was full (the ticket was also pretty cheap).