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How far out does FCM occur, and how often does it update?

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How far out does FCM occur, and how often does it update?

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Old Dec 13, 2016, 11:56 am
  #1  
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How far out does FCM occur, and how often does it update?

I've been watching an upcoming trip in April, DTW-JFK-EDI and back. V fares (from flash sale a few weeks ago) with C+ for JFK-EDI legs. I've been curious about FCM on international (D1M?) assuming either at check-in or if I called to do an upgrade with cash and miles.

I didn't have an offer displayed on delta's site and didn't think twice about it as I didn't think D1 monetization was really a thing or my fare class was too low. However, I just looked and now have an option to go business class each way for $1587.20. $6348.8 additional for the Mrs and I RT is WAY too rich for my blood, but it was indeed not there just a few days ago.

Yesterday marked 4 months from departure - is that a magical number for when FCM starts to be offered? (D-120 perhaps?) And do the prices offered change dynamically, or is there a schedule of sorts when I might expect the price to change for better or worse?

Thanks!
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 12:05 pm
  #2  
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Z fares on this route are available from $3133.76 RT. Your "FCM" offer looks like nothing more than a buy-up offer to a Z fare (with no discount). Personally, I have yet to see definitive proof that most FCM offers are anything other than a buy-up to the going discount F/J fares.
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 12:08 pm
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I can't speak as to when they start, but I have seen them change daily. One day ridiculously low, then higher the next day, and higher yet after that, and then a week later back to the same crazy low. No rhyme or reason.
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 12:51 pm
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Originally Posted by Start_at_UIN
I can't speak as to when they start, but I have seen them change daily. One day ridiculously low, then higher the next day, and higher yet after that, and then a week later back to the same crazy low. No rhyme or reason.
Agree with this and the fact that sometimes it's just the difference in fares. Also, have had them on a flight, then the offer goes away and sometimes it comes back.

It's like voodoo.
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 1:02 pm
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My FCM offers are always just the fare difference. The F price can change quite a bit over time, so I keep an eye out and will buy if the price is right. The offer mechanism just makes it easier to keep tabs on the price and strike if/when the offer is good. Saves the trouble of searching and calling for a buy up.
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 1:11 pm
  #6  
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Noted. Thanks all for the response!

-Griffin
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 2:19 pm
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Does anyone know if FCM offers ever appear for AF-issued tickets on DL metal with AF codeshare flight numbers? I have my SM# in the reservation and it's visible in My Trips. Booked V class, and the forward cabin looks wide open. There are only DL metal segments in the booking, no other carriers. No offer as of yet. Maybe it'll only appear at check-in when DL takes over the ticket as the operating carrier?
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 2:27 pm
  #8  
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Originally Posted by GoAmtrak
Does anyone know if FCM offers ever appear for AF-issued tickets on DL metal with AF codeshare flight numbers? I have my SM# in the reservation and it's visible in My Trips. Booked V class, and the forward cabin looks wide open. There are only DL metal segments in the booking, no other carriers. No offer as of yet. Maybe it'll only appear at check-in when DL takes over the ticket as the operating carrier?
Nope, DL has no control over the ticket to issue offers. Only AF can. Ticket issuer needs to be DL, not just DL stock for most FCM. OLCI cam be done since they have control DoD of ticket.
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 2:40 pm
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mpheels: would you please describe the "offer mechanism" you refer to? I'm not familiar with this.
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Old Dec 13, 2016, 3:28 pm
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Originally Posted by flyerCO
Nope, DL has no control over the ticket to issue offers. Only AF can. Ticket issuer needs to be DL, not just DL stock for most FCM. OLCI cam be done since they have control DoD of ticket.
Would the same be true for Comfort+ on TATL flights? I have a KLM-issued ticket whose TATL segments are on DL metal, and I am getting "upgrade" offers for C+ on those segments. I know that C+ isn't a separate class of service for those flights yet, so I might be comparing apples to oranges in terms of FCM.
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Old Dec 14, 2016, 8:02 am
  #11  
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Well what the...

Random indeed.

Yesterday: $1587.20 OW, PP

Now: $1,587.55 OW, PP

That seems REALLY arbitrary - $0.35 increase?

I'll have to keep my eyes on this. If it drops real low, I'll bite...
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Old Dec 14, 2016, 8:13 am
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Originally Posted by ProfRB
mpheels: would you please describe the "offer mechanism" you refer to? I'm not familiar with this.
I wasn't referring to any special mechanism - just the regular banner offers that show up at the top of the page on the DL website, when you open a reservation in the "my trips" section.
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Old Dec 14, 2016, 8:51 am
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Originally Posted by Carpboy823
Would the same be true for Comfort+ on TATL flights? I have a KLM-issued ticket whose TATL segments are on DL metal, and I am getting "upgrade" offers for C+ on those segments. I know that C+ isn't a separate class of service for those flights yet, so I might be comparing apples to oranges in terms of FCM.
Correct since it's just an add on there's no reticketing needed. Once it goes to being it's own fare class then it will.
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Old Dec 14, 2016, 9:21 am
  #14  
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Originally Posted by Griffin Wright
Well what the...

Random indeed.

Yesterday: $1587.20 OW, PP

Now: $1,587.55 OW, PP

That seems REALLY arbitrary - $0.35 increase?

I'll have to keep my eyes on this. If it drops real low, I'll bite...
This might reflect a difference in exchange rates, perhaps for some taxes and fees on the European side of the Atlantic.
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Old Dec 14, 2016, 10:57 am
  #15  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
This might reflect a difference in exchange rates, perhaps for some taxes and fees on the European side of the Atlantic.
Yes, this is nothing more the exchange rate fluctuations. Long haul J fares from the UK are currently subject to a £146 UK Air Passenger Duty (fare code GB). Also, UK airports charge their own Passenger Service Charge (fare code UB). For EDI, this looks to be about £14.50 currently. As the USD/GBP exchange rate changes, the airlines adjust their charges for these taxes when they convert them to USD. Delta breaks down all the taxes when you click the "Total Price" link on a fare quote.

OP, it's trivial to compare the current J prices for your flights to what you originally paid and see if these "offers" are nothing more than the fare difference between the two and put the conspiracy theories to rest. Further, if you have a Google account you can use Google Flights to look up your flights in Business and then click the "Track Price" link. Google will then notify you if the J fare ever goes down so you don't have to obsessively check the price everyday.
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