Medallion upgrades: Does this make sense?
 

I will fly LAX-ATL early next week. It is a red-eye flight on a 76w plane so I assume there's a big chance to get upgraded to the flat-bed F cabin. According to the Fly Delta app, there are 15 F seats left and only 5 c+ are taken, indicating those empty seats are way enough to accommodate all existing DM and PLT pax.
However, I didn't see my upgrade cleared 5 days before departure as I expected. Instead, 3 days before departure I got an email titled "Your Medallion Upgrade Has Now Been Confirmed" but still showing I have a c+ seat (which I already got at the time of booking). I was totally confused. Anyone knows what was going on here?

A few things going on:

1. the misleading "congrats on your Medallion Upgrade -- PSYCHE!!!! It's just the C+ upgrade you already got a while ago" email has been widely reported

2. the lack of an upgrade yet means revenue management still thinks it will sell a lot of those F seats especially on a route like LAX-ATL

3. FT is not necessarily representative of the traveling population as a whole, but it's not a cinch that 5 C+ seats occupied = only 5 DM/PM on the flight, because some people are so averse to the possibility of a C+ middle seat that they're leaving the "request C+ upgrade" box unchecked. (Although if I were such a person and only 5 seats were occupied in C+ I'd go ahead and opt in for the upgrade, esp. given 2-3-2 on the 767)

if it remains 15F then they might clear some comp UGs at T-1d or something. Don't be surprised if it goes to the gate though. People may also SDC for lie-flats on a red-eye.

I would say FCM.

However, I would say you should get it at T-24. But be careful, there is a non lieflat 767 leaving a bit earlier. DM might SDC into your flight and take all the seats especially if they didn't get upgraded either. At least it is likely the load is light enough and you can get an empty seat next to you.

Since you're PM, if you haven't used all your RUCs yet, I'd watch the UG list very closely after T-24 and be prepared to toss one down. I've done the same a few times on LAX/ATL (or reverse) and still not gotten the UG, even as a DM with a Reserve card. Very heavy % of last-minute paid UGs on this route.

Yeah, as Z says, the C+ UG email is annoying. I've almost learned to ignore it, but it's still like Pavlov's bell....

As you get closer and closer to departure date there will be fewer and fewer seats. By T-24/check-in/last FCM there will only be acouple left. Day of travel, the RUC game will start. If you want to be up front I advise you to use a RUC as a PM if it's D1. In reality day of travel there will probably be somewhere between 0-4 seats available.

-PS no one clears in advance on these routes for F

Well maybe 360's

The days of "big chance" for an upgrade - particularly in advance - are over. You'll know at T-24 how many seats are still available, and as many have suggested, you'll probably want to apply an RUC if you have one.

Also, definitely call in and ask how much for an F upgrade. You never know; they might have a really good FCM offer for you ;)

You got an upgrade to C+. I wish they would stop sending these emails out. Chances are very low you get the upgrade. Fcm or you will be in C+. Have a good trip.

Medallion upgrades: Does this make sense?

For you, no.

For Delta, yes.

;)

I tried taking this 76W flight last week and as a DM didn't get upgraded. Even if it shows lots available in my case they were snagged as the flight got close.

is it possible to call and get the "pay flat fee at check in" style of upgrade over the phone, or only paying the difference between your fare and the lost available first class fare?

All I know is when I see delta one suites on a domestic I generally call in and upgrade. That being said Im usually 1st class anyway. Work pays anyway.

Somewhere in between. When people here say "FCM", they generally mean they got an offer for FC that was lower than the fare difference. Normally this is offered as an upsell on the website (though as a DM I've never seen one). But sometimes when you call in and ask they'll give you a very good rate.

These rates are generally tailored to you specifically, so what you get offered may be better or worse than anyone else. Anecdotelly, those with lower/no status seem to get better FCM offers.

Phrasing that request to the CSR - Just checking to see how much it would be to upgrade to first?

What is the timeline (3days before, 24 hours before) that the upsell would be offered?

I think all I have ever gotten is fare difference.