I don't expect most of you to understand airline history and airline economics so I'll give you a break. But bigger isn't always better. Delta's 767's vary between 211-226 seats. The A330's they have in order will probably seat around 315 in a two class configuration. That's a huge increase in capacity. Having too many large aircraft is one of the reasons's Pan Am failed. You can't fill them consistently. It's better to have too little capacity than too much. You can always charge more to account for too little capacity. You have to take a loss to make up for too much capacity.

If DL didn't want the 787 they would've canceled or converted the order by now.

There isn't anything other than the 787 that is so versatile - small capacity but long range, that could replace the 787. There are some frames that will be up for retirement come 2020 which is why they're coming then. The 333 has 293 seats which is just too much for certain markets. The 787 will be a very useful aircraft for DL to Asia and Europe. I think eventually we will see another order to replace more of the 763s.

If DL wanted 787s they could have them now. DL has consistently pushed back their order slots and has published the fact they can convert the orders to 737.

I know diehard Boeing fans want the 787 but right now the A330 and 767s fill what is needed. I'm betting if an A330 is too much capacity that we'll see DL drop the route I'm favor of partners before they go with 787.

Nice to speculate, however I don't believe Delta has any intention of ever taking delivery of the 787, just as Virgin Atlantic will never take their A-380's.

What do you think will happen to current 767 routes? If Delta doesn't take the 787 then the shareholders need to do something about managment. If they don't take the 787 they are letting their emotions cloud their judgment. The pilots won't stand for it either. FlyerCo thinks they can just shift 767 flights to partners. It's not that simple. DL pilots must maintain a certain percentage of TATL and TPAC flights.

DL has ordered a bunch of A330NEOs as well. I imagine those, along with the A332s freed up from the longest TPACs will take over for the 763s. The 764s will most likely be around for a while longer.

No other airline has replaced their 767's with A330's except HA and they are finding out that it's not easy to make up for the extra capacity. There's a reason for that. You don't replaceme a 200 seat plane with a 300 seat plane. By not having the 787 DL is at a disadvantage against AA and UA that are replacing 767's with 787's. Big airplanes are only good for hub-hub flights. You can't profitably fill an A330 from ATL-DUS. Have fun connecting in CDG and AMS if no 787 comes along.

+1

Back on topic here - what new routes will the 787 fly?

I agree with some mentioned already: SEA-SIN, ATL-PVG, JFK-BOM, LAX-MEL.

LAX-AKL is something that comes to mind. I know BKK is getting cut now but SEA-BKK might come when the 787 comes. All of that on top of the shorter range European flying and maybe some domestic flying in between (JFK-LAX) will balance out their hours and cycles (so they aren't doing ULH flying constantly).

I'd love to see SEA-SYD as an option - given the extra range why not have some diversity of flights to Australia from the USA rather than ALL being in LAX/SFO (and DFW if you count QF).

But, LAX-MEL would be great as well.

Delta will continue to fly the 757/767 until they have to make replacement parts themselves. After that, if there are no used airframes of any kind that fit the bill for a particular route those airplanes fly, they will drop it.

As a previous poster said, Delta has had ample opportunity to take those airplanes and hasn't done so. Why? Because just like the A-380's on Virgin's book it costs them nothing to keep them and, in the case of the 787, they have the option of swapping the orders for more 737's at a favorable price point.

A few things in regard to the Dreamliner and DL. I do believe DL will indeed the operate the Dreamliner next decade but not the 787-8.

As almost everyone on this forum knows, NWA originally ordered the 787-8 to begin overflying NRT from MSP/DTW. It's also very likely NWA was going to return to Australia with the plane. Just after the merger, the 787-8 ran into its problems of being overweight and having much less expected range. Several of the 787-8s DL was expected receive were "terrible teens", the overweight and poor range initial batch of 787-8s Boeing struggled to sell until recently. Andersen did DL a favour by delaying the order. Where Andersen possibly erred was deciding to defer the order instead of converting the order to 787-9s. The 787-9 corrected all of the 787-8 problems and has an additional 300 miles of range using Boeing specifications. Had DL done this, they probably would have received all 18 by now, the 747 would have been retired with the remaining six 77L options exercised, no 242 tonne MTOW A330-300 order or A350-900 order, and NRT officially dehubbed. (However, at the time, with the Dreamliner's myriad of issues, DL made the correct call.)

From what I've heard from reliable DL employees and comments from management, DL will be taking a hard look at the 787-10 with the RR Trent engines. (The Trents appear to be the better option for the stretched version of the 787-9.) The 787-10 is a CASM killer on flights up to 13 hours. While its in direct competition to the A330-900NEO, it will have better fuel burn and carry more passengers. The 787-10 will likely to see high capacity routes on flights up to 13 hours, i.e. Transatlantic and Deep South America. This plane would be an ideal 767-400ER replacement although I can see DL phasing out the remaining 767-300ERs to make room for this plane as the 767-400ER's economics make the plane more viable and its age make maintenance costs less expensive than most of the 767-300ER fleet. I wouldn't be surprised if all 767-400ERs are still in the fleet ten years from now while all 767-300ERs are retired.

Boeing is rumoured to be considering launching a new middle of the market aircraft, essentially a 767 MAX. DL would be far more receptive to this new aircraft to replace the final batch of 767-300ERs than the relatively heavier and too much range 787-8.

Alright, I know you are a Boeing fan boy but lets pull back just a little bit here.

Do you have the OEW numbers for the 330NEO? AFAIK Airbus hasn't even posted them. If you have the numbers please post them (and sources) to back up what you said.

but even if the 338 is heavier that isn't remotely close to the only thing looked at when buying an airplane.
The 787s problems is its legs are too long (thus it costs more) to effectively replace the 767.
He didn't do anything wrong by moving the 787s back.


Is that because you also don't have any idea what you are talking about?
Of course we will see another order to replace the 767. As it is right now the plan is to replace ~20 763s with the 25 339s. What will happen is the 339 will do more high volume flying, shifting 332s and 764s down to replace those 763s.

DL pushed the order back once, and its pretty normal for airlines and OEMs to work out substitution rights.
DL also got the price of those 787s down by 6-7M pre frame during those negations.

The simple fact is they are flex planes. If the economy is where DL wants it to be then they will take the airplanes. If the Transatlantic and Transpacific markets keep seeing over capacity and softness like they are now then they will be converted to something else.
Ed wants the airline to be closer to 50/50 International ASMs/Domestic ASMs. The current wide body order book gives them the ability for growth in 2019 onwards but can be geared down if needed.

Also noted in the latest SEC report, the 787 order is financed where it wasn't before.
I'm not sure what you expect the shareholders to want. An airline chasing loss making marketshare or producing 18-25% margins like DL is doing right now. Maybe thats your big understanding of airline economics. :roll eyes:


Oh and yes DL does have agreements with DALPA for TATL scope with its JV partners, but DL hasn't been at that scope yet. They just tossed 30M at DALPA to make the issue go away for 2 more years.

DL has ordered 25 339s. That isn't remotely enough capacity to replace the 763 fleet.
Yeah that isn't remotely close to being true. You need to spend some time on google or something. Plenty of airlines have replaced 767s with A330s.

Delivery positions can often be monetized, so DL may be holding onto them, and as 2020 gets closer another carrier might want to assume (I.e. Purchase) them in order to get delivery sooner then if they were placing a new order.

What a thoughtful reply. Are you saying that Pan Am's huge fleet of 747's that they couldn't fill had nothing do with their demise?

:confused:

You lost me here unless your talking about purchase price.


There's a reason Delta pushed the 787 order back. They operate quite a number of young 763 frames that can soldier on a few more years. However there is no doubt in my mind we will see at least 30 788 in the fleet with both the 789/781 a possibility. There is no other aircraft available that can replace the 763/332 on a one per one basis. The fact that they ordered the larger A339 Neo but not the smaller sibling as well is the telltale sign right there.

I also expect the 787 to open up some thinner Asia routes from ATL/NYC/DTW/LAX