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-   -   DL applies for Haneda slots: ATL/LAX/MSP (https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta-air-lines-skymiles/1761085-dl-applies-haneda-slots-atl-lax-msp.html)

sbm12 Apr 21, 16 4:35 pm

DL applies for Haneda slots: ATL/LAX/MSP
 
The DoT is requiring all airlines to reapply for Haneda service with the shift to daytime slots. DL has applied to keep its LAX service and add ATL and MSP as well.

I think that ATL has a very strong chance of being awarded though that may come at the expense of the LAX slot; I would be surprised if the DoT chose to keep two at LAX with a full reallocation, especially now that there is increased demand from other airports. I think MSP is a pipe dream at best.

UA applied for EWR/SFO. AA for LAX/DFW. HA for HNL/KOA with the twist that the second frequency would be 3x KOA/4x HNL weekly and would be considered as a night slot if that's all it can get.

More details/analysis of the new Haneda slot applications on my blog if anyone cares.

(Bold codes are the cities with existing service)

MSPeconomist Apr 21, 16 4:40 pm

MSP is surprising since DTW apparently didn't work at all as a HND route. It's probably the placeholder to be turned down.

Personally, I'd rather keep the nonstop NRT route than introduce HND at bad times and without onward DL intraAsiaconnections.

I guess DL is afraid to ask for SEA after losing the route due to inactivity not so long ago.

sbm12 Apr 21, 16 4:49 pm

SEA would have stood zero chance given the recent dropping IMO. As for "bad times" not sure what you mean there. The whole point of the re-bidding is because these are daytime slots.

dzflyer Apr 21, 16 6:55 pm

This is great for people who have business in tokyo and are not connecting but terrible overall strategy for delta I would think.

jrkmsp Apr 21, 16 7:04 pm

Delta ranked its preferences as:

1) HND-LAX/MSP/ATL
2) HND-LAX/MSP
3) HND-LAX

I think the logic is that MSP can pick up more logical connecting traffic to HND than ATL can.

readywhenyouare Apr 21, 16 7:06 pm

They should be able to keep LAX but that should be it.

ClipperDelta Apr 21, 16 7:06 pm


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26518384)
MSP is surprising since DTW apparently didn't work at all as a HND route. It's probably the placeholder to be turned down. .

MSP-HND is actually Delta's #2 choice. Their application states the following order of preference:
#1: LAX-HND
#2: MSP-HND
#3: ATL-HND


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26518384)
Personally, I'd rather keep the nonstop NRT route than introduce HND at bad times and without onward DL intraAsiaconnections.
.

These are for daylight flight times...not the "bad" night-time schedules.


Originally Posted by dzflyer
but terrible overall strategy for delta I would think.

Most successful routes depend on a healthy mix of O&D and connecting traffic. HND is the preferred airport for TYO. If DL ignored HND and let the other carriers get all the HND rights, they would lose a chunk of the O&D traffic, thus worsening their overall TYO situation further...

ashill Apr 21, 16 7:47 pm


Originally Posted by ClipperDelta (Post 26518804)
MSP-HND is actually Delta's #2 choice. Their application states the following order of preference:
#1: LAX-HND
#2: MSP-HND
#3: ATL-HND

It wouldn't shock me if DL is engaging in some gamesmanship here, thinking that ATL is their strongest case (since they knew that AA would also apply for LAX) and thus likely to be awarded anyway. I wonder if it will come back to bite them if the DOT has had enough of DL's shenanigans with HND in general and awards LAX-HND to AA, then sees MSP as a bogus request with very little local traffic. And if DL didn't get their second choice, why give them their third?

Although maybe MSP does make sense since ATL doesn't have a ton of local traffic anyway and, as jrkmsp pointed out, MSP serves more connecting cities logically. In fact, with only MSP and DFW requested in the interior of the country and MSP being better-located geographically for connections, maybe MSP does stand a chance after all.

I'm surprised that neither DL nor AA requested JFK and that nobody requested ORD.

FireEmblemPride Apr 21, 16 7:53 pm

Interesting choices all around, particularly by UA and DL. Also notable that neither AA or DL are applying for services they previously dropped, and the fact neither UA nor AA applied for ORD indicates that either JL, NH or both will be operating that route. UA applying for EWR is interesting because NH is almost assuredly going to begin JFK. Perhaps it's intentional so that UA definitely gets SFO, which JL may or may not keep around. Meanwhile AA not applying for JFK assures JL will operate it.

LAX will probably stay with DL as the service has been operating longer and we need to keep competitive allocations in mind. MSP is a shocker, since I don't think DTW would have been less likely to succeed. My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)

Of the 12 slots, assuming NH gets 4 and JL gets 2, that leaves the allocations as:

Star: 5
Oneworld: 3
Skyteam: 3
HA: 1

readywhenyouare Apr 21, 16 7:54 pm


Originally Posted by ashill (Post 26518926)
MSP serves more connecting cities logically.

Im not doubting you but I guess I just don't understand this statement. ATL serves far more destinations than MSP. Especially if we are talking about south/central/Latin America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Is there more demand for places like Tokyo-Fargo, ND? If so then yes MSP makes more sense.

sbm12 Apr 21, 16 8:14 pm


Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride (Post 26518955)
My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)

I think odds of one carrier getting 3 while the other 3 only get 1 each are very, very, very low.

ashill Apr 21, 16 8:15 pm


Originally Posted by readywhenyouare (Post 26518957)
Im not doubting you but I guess I just don't understand this statement. ATL serves far more destinations than MSP. Especially if we are talking about south/central/Latin America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Is there more demand for places like Tokyo-Fargo, ND? If so then yes MSP makes more sense.

It's just that any city west or north of ATL (DTW, CHI, Texas, BOS, NYC, WAS, the entire Midwest, Northeast, and mid-Atlantic, etc) can be served more directly via MSP than via ATL. All the large markets have plenty of service to both ATL and MSP. And the DOT cares mostly about providing US markets with good access to HND; I don't think connecting the Caribbean and Latin America to HND is very important to the DOT in the route proceedings.

Separately, DL's chutzpah is amazing. From their application:


Delta has no Japanese carrier as a joint-venture partner, and therefore receives no benefit at Haneda from the allocation of slot pairs to Japanese carriers. Therefore, Delta would have been justified in requesting, and the Department in awarding, each of the daytime slot pairs to Delta. Instead, Delta is seeking only three of the available slot pairs to introduce robust competition among alliance carriers at Haneda
Obviously, DL is so special that they are entitled to as many as AA/JL and UA/NH combined, rather than each getting about 1/3 of the slots, but DL chose to be so incredibly magnanimous as to request only about 1/3.

ashill Apr 21, 16 8:21 pm


Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride (Post 26518955)
LAX will probably stay with DL as the service has been operating longer and we need to keep competitive allocations in mind. MSP is a shocker, since I don't think DTW would have been less likely to succeed. My predictions are as follows:

SFO - UA
LAX - DL
ATL - DL
MSP - DL
DFW - AA
HNL - HA (evening)

I think that NYC getting a slot for a US carrier is a shoe-in, so I think that UA's EWR service is a shoe-in (since neither AA nor DL asked for JFK). I also think that UA's SFO is a shoe-in, and it's most likely that only one LAX slot will be awarded. That leaves four applications (HNL, DFW, ATL, MSP) for two slots. I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening, so DL and AA will each get one of the slots. So daytime slots:

EWR (UA)
SFO (UA)
LAX (DL or AA; DL may have pissed the DOT off with their SEA shenanigans and opposing this whole proceeding enough to award this to AA. If they haven't, DL will probably win as you say if for no other reason than they're once again proposing a larger, perhaps-unworkable airplane than AA)
DFW (AA)
MSP (DL)

sbm12 Apr 21, 16 8:24 pm


Originally Posted by ashill (Post 26519029)
I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening,

Except that's not really what HA applied for. Its first choice is HNL daytime. Second bid is a second daytime slot split. Third is the spit for a night slot. Giving everyone else first or second choice and relegating HA to third, especially when it is the HND service which has actually operated since awarded, would be a significant slight to the company.

FireEmblemPride Apr 21, 16 8:28 pm


Originally Posted by sbm12 (Post 26519012)
I think odds of one carrier getting 3 while the other 3 only get 1 each are very, very, very low.

It's all in the JVs. This is a legitimate argument by DL. If DL received all 3 slots, then Skyteam would still only have 25% of the total US-HND market.

In the past, the DOT was fine giving DL 2 slots and UA 0. 3-1 is less slanted.


Originally Posted by ashill (Post 26519029)
I think that NYC getting a slot for a US carrier is a shoe-in, so I think that UA's EWR service is a shoe-in (since neither AA nor DL asked for JFK). I also think that UA's SFO is a shoe-in, and it's most likely that only one LAX slot will be awarded. That leaves four applications (HNL, DFW, ATL, MSP) for two slots. I agree that HNL will probably be left in the evening, so DL and AA will each get one of the slots. So daytime slots:

*A getting 50% of the slots, and 2 flights to NYC sounds incredibly unlikely. If JL decides to do JFK, then 25% of flights would go to NYC.

readywhenyouare Apr 21, 16 8:29 pm


Originally Posted by sbm12 (Post 26519038)
Except that's not really what HA applied for. Its first choice is HNL daytime. Second bid is a second daytime slot split. Third is the spit for a night slot. Giving everyone else first or second choice and relegating HA to third, especially when it is the HND service which has actually operated since awarded, would be a significant slight to the company.

Agreed. HA and AS are probably the two most upstanding airlines in the US. You never hear anything bad coming out of them and the seem to provide a consistent product and service. HA should be given priority in this slot proceeding. The other three airlines have played around with HND far too much. It's disgusting.

FireEmblemPride Apr 21, 16 8:39 pm


Originally Posted by readywhenyouare (Post 26519054)
Agreed. HA and AS are probably the two most upstanding airlines in the US. You never hear anything bad coming out of them and the seem to provide a consistent product and service. HA should be given priority in this slot proceeding. The other three airlines have played around with HND far too much. It's disgusting.

No way. If JL and NH keep their HNL flights and HA gets 2, then 1/3rd of the flights would be to Hawaii. That doesn't promote gateway diversity at all, and the whole issue of why HA was so successful with HND had less to do with the airline and more to do with the destination.

readywhenyouare Apr 21, 16 8:44 pm


Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride (Post 26519080)
No way. If JL and NH keep their HNL flights and HA gets 2, then 1/3rd of the flights would be to Hawaii. That doesn't promote gateway diversity at all, and the whole issue of why HA was so successful with HND had less to do with the airline and more to do with the destination.

AA, DL, and UA knew the terms of the slot agreement. If they knew they couldn't make it work then they shouldn't have bid and wasted everyone's time. A full plane from HND-KOA benefits the economy more than a 15% load factor to SEA, JFK, or DTW.

ashill Apr 21, 16 9:16 pm


Originally Posted by FireEmblemPride (Post 26519052)
It's all in the JVs. This is a legitimate argument by DL. If DL received all 3 slots, then Skyteam would still only have 25% of the total US-HND market.

AA makes the compelling counter-argument that DL alone is significantly bigger in the US-Japan market than AA+JL (because of DL and UA's historical position combined with JL's government-imposed post-bankruptcy growth restrictions).


Originally Posted by readywhenyouare (Post 26519102)
AA, DL, and UA knew the terms of the slot agreement. If they knew they couldn't make it work then they shouldn't have bid and wasted everyone's time. A full plane from HND-KOA benefits the economy more than a 15% load factor to SEA, JFK, or DTW.

There's no reason to expect 15% load factors or anything like that with daytime slots. There's every reason to believe that the mainland-HND flights did poorly strictly due to the timing (especially for the non-west coast flights); Hawaii-HND flights have done better simply because night flights to/from HND translate to sensible arrival/departure times in Hawaii.

AA, DL, and UA (and the government) didn't know how badly the flights would do with the time restrictions until they tried. Now they do know. But with comparable times, existing USA-TYO flights should be a good model for how USA-HND flights will do, just as they are in Canada-HND (which has had daytime flights for a while), I believe.

MSPeconomist Apr 21, 16 9:40 pm

Hawaii is a beach (leisure) market. They can fill seats, but yields will be low.

FireEmblemPride Apr 21, 16 9:45 pm


Originally Posted by readywhenyouare (Post 26519102)
AA, DL, and UA knew the terms of the slot agreement. If they knew they couldn't make it work then they shouldn't have bid and wasted everyone's time. A full plane from HND-KOA benefits the economy more than a 15% load factor to SEA, JFK, or DTW.

1. UA never operated any of the routes you spoke of. In fact, they never suspended SFO-HND for any reason.
2. The reason for their failures are no longer relevant for this new allocation proceeding.
3. Anyone would have succeeded with HND-HNL.

Longboater Apr 22, 16 3:29 am

I doubt HAL gets another slot as DOT has repeatedly stated the primary purpose of these flights are for business travelers and while HNL sees plenty of business from Japan, KOA would market almost exclusively toward Japanese leisure travelers. KOA-HND would be great for West Hawai'i but that's pretty much it.

Very interesting choices by UA/DL/AA. I don't believe UA is a virtual shoo-in at EWR as ANA will likely start JFK-HND. I'd be surprised if MSP-HND is approved and it's apparent DL is serious about ending Tokyo service from MSP if its rejected. I will have to read DL's application to see how whiny they are about this whole process, which it turn could annoy DOT to the point where they only receive one HND flight. AA's application for DFW/LAX-HND is quite strong, considering they are reporting a whopping 91.5% LF on LAX-HND since it started. And this is combined with continuing LAX-NRT. It helps AA is using a 788 for the route but their application mentions they are seriously considering upgauging the flight if daytime slot is approved for LAX. So HAL HNL-HND, AA LAX-HND, UA SFO-HND, DL LAX-HND are pretty much locked in with HNL-HND remaining as nighttime. DL's ATL-HND, AA's DFW-HND, and UA's EWR-HND will fight over the two new slots. Could end up being decided how much DOT is willing to put up with DL's constant complaining about HND.

DL-Don Apr 22, 16 4:35 am

Oh for a daytime arriving ATL-HND!!

ATOBTTR Apr 22, 16 7:21 am


Originally Posted by readywhenyouare (Post 26518957)
Im not doubting you but I guess I just don't understand this statement. ATL serves far more destinations than MSP. Especially if we are talking about south/central/Latin America, Mexico, and the Caribbean. Is there more demand for places like Tokyo-Fargo, ND? If so then yes MSP makes more sense.

Well I doubt Fargo - Tokyo is much more or less of a market than say Dothan, AL - Tokyo. While perhaps with less frequency, most major cities that have service to ATL and any kind of sizeable market to Tokyo are also going to have service to MSP, yet routing via MSP will require less backtracking or none at all versus routing via ATL. For the smaller markets that don't, they can still get to Tokyo via Narita through ATL.

It could also be available aircraft types and range and what DL would prefer to use on the route. MSP-HND is 5,981 miles while ATL-HND is 6,882 miles. If MSP-HND is within the range of the 767-300ER, while ATL-HND is not (and I don't have specs in front of me), I could see that being a factor too.

MSPeconomist Apr 22, 16 7:41 am

MSP-HND on the 767 D1 seats? ick!

bubbashow Apr 22, 16 7:53 am


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26519255)
Hawaii is a beach (leisure) market. They can fill seats, but yields will be low.

Remember the fares on DTW-HND? Couldn't be lower than a 20% LF with $520 round trips.

ashill Apr 22, 16 8:08 am


Originally Posted by bubbashow (Post 26520606)
Remember the fares on DTW-HND? Couldn't be lower than a 20% LF with $520 round trips.

Yeah, but that was with the crappy nighttime departures. With comparable times, I can't imagine that XXX-HND fares would be less than XXX-NRT. The only question for DL is whether they have trouble filling the plane without beyond NRT connections. But if they can't fill one-three flights from the US to a major destination even if it's effectively an outstation with few connections, they're in trouble.

The upshot of this experience, to me, is that HND isn't so much more convenient than NRT that customers are willing to pay a premium to arrive and depart in the middle of the night just for the "convenience" of HND. Duh. I'd fly into IAD over DCA if the choice were to arrive at IAD at 1605 or to arrive at DCA at 2300 and depart at 1650 vs 0500. But I wouldn't take any more away from the failure of the nighttime HND flights than that.

ATOBTTR Apr 22, 16 8:27 am


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26520554)
MSP-HND on the 767 D1 seats? ick!

I'm not saying that is what will happen. I just wonder if that's a factor as MSP-HND is only ~200 miles longer than SEA-PVG, which is served with a 767.


Does anyone know when the new slots would take effect? I have an HND-LAX-SEA award in February 2017 (on AS for the LAX-SEA leg) so my reward options could get interesting if the flights change. I'm actually happy with the 12:10 AM departure right now since it allows me a full day in Tokyo before flying home. Worst case I have DL either 1) put me on the NRT-SEA nonstop or 2) since I'm in J and would love the upper deck, ask them to route me via DTW or JFK on wherever I can get a 747 :cool:

KDCAflyer Apr 22, 16 9:26 am


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26520554)
MSP-HND on the 767 D1 seats? ick!

The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

FWAAA Apr 22, 16 9:31 am


Originally Posted by ATOBTTR (Post 26520735)
Does anyone know when the new slots would take effect? I have an HND-LAX-SEA award in February 2017 (on AS for the LAX-SEA leg) so my reward options could get interesting if the flights change. I'm actually happy with the 12:10 AM departure right now since it allows me a full day in Tokyo before flying home. Worst case I have DL either 1) put me on the NRT-SEA nonstop or 2) since I'm in J and would love the upper deck, ask them to route me via DTW or JFK on wherever I can get a 747 :cool:

These new awards will be effective approximately April 30, 2017, for the Summer season.

Incumbents temporarily keep their current awards for now (but get to fly them during the daytime as of October 30) thru the Winter season, as daytime HND slots must be requested by May 20 or so.

In February, 2017, DL will be flying HND-LAX during "normal" Japan departure times (probably 1800 or 1830 departure to LAX). Plan accordingly.

TrojanTraveler Apr 22, 16 9:33 am


Originally Posted by WWads (Post 26521022)
The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

I actually think the 767 J seat is better than the 777 J seat. Neither of them are that great though (albeit they were a great improvement years ago when rolled out). DL really doesn't have many current options, which to your point should improve when the Airbuses arrive.

3Cforme Apr 22, 16 10:05 am


Originally Posted by WWads (Post 26521022)
The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

Because you would rather have a narrower coach seat in 3x3x3 config on a UA or AA 787 (or 3x4x3 on a 777) than 2x3x2 on a Delta 767?


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26520554)
MSP-HND on the 767 D1 seats? ick!

Not gonna happen. MSP-HND is about 250sm farther than the longest 767 route DL has operated. The set of low-probability hypotheticals about which you can complain is infinite.

TrojanTraveler Apr 22, 16 10:07 am


Originally Posted by 3Cforme (Post 26521176)
Because you would rather have a narrower coach seat in 3x3x3 config on a UA or AA 787 (or 3x4x3 on a 777) than 2x3x2 on a Delta 767?

I think it depends on if you are traveling in the back or the front. In the back I agree with you...2x3x2 to me beats anything.

TrojanTraveler Apr 22, 16 10:11 am


Originally Posted by 3Cforme (Post 26521176)
The set of low-probability hypotheticals about which you can complain is infinite.

Oh, and I found this hilarious.

readywhenyouare Apr 22, 16 10:13 am


Originally Posted by WWads (Post 26521022)
The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

That's news to me. Would you mind telling us which 763ER's are leaving? Only the domestic 763A's are scheduled for retirement except for four ETOPS models used for Hawaii.

davisew Apr 22, 16 10:24 am


Originally Posted by ashill (Post 26518926)
It wouldn't shock me if DL is engaging in some gamesmanship here, thinking that ATL is their strongest case (since they knew that AA would also apply for LAX) and thus likely to be awarded anyway. I wonder if it will come back to bite them if the DOT has had enough of DL's shenanigans with HND in general and awards LAX-HND to AA, then sees MSP as a bogus request with very little local traffic. And if DL didn't get their second choice, why give them their third?

Although maybe MSP does make sense since ATL doesn't have a ton of local traffic anyway and, as jrkmsp pointed out, MSP serves more connecting cities logically. In fact, with only MSP and DFW requested in the interior of the country and MSP being better-located geographically for connections, maybe MSP does stand a chance after all.

I'm surprised that neither DL nor AA requested JFK and that nobody requested ORD.

1. DL requests MSP-HND.
2. Request denied.
3. DL promptly drops MSP-NRT. ("Not Sustainable", DL states as much in their application.)
4. Public complains. Breathless editorials in the local fishwrap.
5. "We wanted to keep service to TYO but the gub'mint wouldn't let us!"
6. Everyone forgets and moves on.

MSPeconomist Apr 22, 16 10:28 am


Originally Posted by WWads (Post 26521022)
The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

DL uses 767s on all of its LHR routes. You would think these birds would be noncompetitive.

pbarnette Apr 22, 16 10:43 am


Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26521277)
DL uses 767s on all of its LHR routes. You would think these birds would be noncompetitive.

You'd think that if you'd never flown the competition.

Austin787 Apr 22, 16 11:03 am

I think the DOT considers the alliance, not just the airline, when awarding the HND slots. UA and AA have alliance partners in Japan, while HA and DL don't. I can see DL getting 2, or perhaps all 3, of it's requested routes. I think DL is a slam dunk for LAX-HND and likewise HA for HNL-HND.



Originally Posted by MSPeconomist (Post 26521277)
DL uses 767s on all of its LHR routes. You would think these birds would be noncompetitive.

The 767 is the best long haul plane for those flying in Y. 2-3-2 is somewhat better than 2-4-2 and much better than 3-3-3 and 3-4-3.

DiverDave Apr 22, 16 12:24 pm


Originally Posted by WWads (Post 26521022)
The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

DL's 767s are the best long-haul aircraft if you are riding in the back. And yes, folks actually do that. :)

David


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