CLTRob

If DL is awarded ATL, LAX and MSP to HND, any ideas if DL will retain service to NRT? Will DL keep the NRT hub to other Asians cities, or serve HND only and move all other connection traffic to ICN and PVG?

DA201

I think DL ends up with two slots: one for LAX and one for ATL or MSP (I would be surprised if it were MSP, but who knows). I think UA gets two (SFO, EWR), AA gets one (LAX), and HA gets the nighttime (HNL).

SFO will almost certainly be retained. UA has a huge advantage in the fact that it was the only carrier to apply for NYC service. The DOT will want an American carrier flying NYC-HND, and UA was the only airline to request this. If DL requested JFK-HND along with the other three, I could potentially see them getting 3 slots.

I think AA only gets one slot for LAX. They don't have a hub at NRT like DL or UA, are the smallest in Asia, and there is pressure to give DL at least 2 slots.

I think HA gets only one nighttime slot for the following reasons: it is the smallest airline of the four and the timing of HNL-HND/HND-HNL works out much better at night compared to the continental US.

DL would then end up with 2 slots which it will use for LAX and ATL/MSP. I think it was foolish of them not to apply for JFK service. For anyone worried about them potentially dropping NRT-PDX/MSP/DTW/ATL/etc., I do not think they would do so since I think ANA or JAL would move in to replace DL. Now DL really should move their Asian hub to ICN, but that's a separate topic...

As for the Japanese slots, I think ANA ends up with 3 all daytime going to LAX, ORD, and HNL, while JAL ends up with 2 day and 1 night going to SFO, JFK, and HNL.

Prediction Summary:
UA: SFO, EWR
ANA: LAX, ORD, HNL
AA: LAX
JAL: SFO, JFK, HNL
DL: LAX, ATL/MSP
HA: HNL

Fanjet

Actually, wouldn't those first two points work in AA's favor? Why give more slot pairs to the carriers which have more flights to Tokyo already. And the DOT is under no pressure to give DL two daytime slot pairs. They abused their SEA-HND authority to the point of having it revoked. In fact, wasn't it orginally DTW-HND?
Hasn't it already been established that the Japanese authorities are going to award ANA four daytime slot pairs and JAL only two? And if that is the case, I doubt that JAL would sacrafice one of them on HNL.

jrkmsp

It has. JAL is in the "penalty box" through 2017 because of its bailout.

DA201

Forgot about the JAL penalty. Sorry.

Senators/representatives from Oregon, Minnesota, Detroit, and Georgia have all pushed for the DOT to give DL at least the same amount of slots as everyone else, if not more, so they can retain service to Tokyo. And not having a hub in Tokyo goes against AA. Because they are not as big of a players in the Tokyo-USA market, the other airlines argue they shouldn't get as many slots. They say more current Tokyo flights=more Haneda slots, so the ratio of Haneda:Narita flights is similar.

Longboater

DL only applied for MSP-HND as they plan on cancelling MSP-NRT due to the so called threat of HND liberalisation. DL has also threaten to ditch PDX-NRT, which I think was inevitable anyway due to the downsizing of NRT and build up of SEA. (They've kept it this long due to PDX area contracts, notably Nike). Won't be that big of a deal long term since I see one of the Japanese carriers or KAL jumping in and picking up PDX.

DL is terrible place with this whole process and it illustrates their issues in Asia. While they inherited a terrific, albeit outmoded hub in NRT from NW, the devaluation of the Yen, the increasing costs of maintaining the 747 fleet, the Dreamliner disaster leaving DL no alternative but to defer the order, and the choice of replacing NRT from scratch in SEA instead of an established hub in LAX. I know certain upper executives wanted LAX instead of SEA, and one of them is now CEO. But DL has gone "all-in" in SEA and will have to wait for the A350s, which are a bit large for SEA but would have been perfect for LAX though, to expand and solidify SEA-Asia.

Austin787

If ANA is getting 4 slots, I can't see the DOT giving UA more than 1 slot, since giving UA 2 would leave half of the USA-HND flights on *A. Assuming the DOT tries to maintain balance between the alliances, like in 2010 slot competition. Since SkyTeam has no airline based in Japan, it's entirely possible DL could get 3 slots.

I'm guessing everyone will keep their existing HND slots, with the mainland USA-HND switching to daytime, while HA HNL-HND remains night time. That leaves 2 daytime slots for the US-based airlines. As for the Japan-based airlines, I'm guessing they focus on the largest O/D routes.

My predictions:
HNL: HA (night)
LAX: AA, DL, ANA
SFO: UA, ANA
ATL: DL
MSP: DL
ORD: JL, ANA
NYC: JL (JFK), ANA (JFK or EWR)

That would leave *Alliance with 5, OneWorld with 3, and SkyTeam with 3.

Fanjet

1. The only entity claiming these HND slot authorities would jeapordize Tokyo service is Delta. That's it. So it's a false narrative. They've gone so far as to say they would have to cancel MSP-NRT service. But why? Who's forcing them to make that decision?

2. An airline saying "we have more service than they do" doesn't carry much weight. Giving the airlines with a larger Tokyo market share an even larger market share goes against the notion of fair competition. When AA/US had to relinquish slot pairs at DCA and LGA, it was under the condition that they be awarded to carriers with a smaller presence at those airports. And that the bigger carriers would be excluded.

3. I'm sure lawmakers from the states where AA has a large presence are also making phone calls. And FYI, the person who is the head of the DOT is the former mayor of Charlotte. You know, the place where AA has it's second largest hub.

DA201

1) True, DL is the only one with these claims. But politicians are concerned that they will potentially follow through on their claims, and politicians from impacted areas have spoke about this.
http://www.wday.com/news/3940865-law...minnesota-asia

2) This was due to smaller airlines not being able to get service to DCA/LGA and to allow LCC/ULCC's to enter the market to lower prices. Frontier, Southwest, JetBlue, etc. are not asking for slots. Only 4 FSC's are asking for slots. This is more of a situation where a new airport opens to replace an old one, and the DOT is deciding how slots at the new airport should be handed out. Will they hand them out equally or give them proportionally based on the airlines slots at the old airport?

3) Yes, I'm sure lawmakers from Texas, Illinois, etc. have made some calls, but they are not being outspoken like the politicians from Oregon, Minnesota, etc. And true, the head of the department is from Charlotte. So even if that is a factor... Charlotte is not gaining a service to HND no matter what the outcome is. AA is not based in Charlotte, US Airways was not based in Charlotte... Charlotte/North Carolina has no stakes in this.

I know these are your own predictions, but I really can't see DL getting half of the slots. When the DOT allocated the original 4 slots, they gave DL half of them for the same reason you are citing. But, DL could not make it work. Will they be able to make ATL/MSP-HND work without the connecting traffic on the other end (BKK, GUM, ROR, MNL, KIX, SPN, SIN, TPE)? ATL/MSP-Tokyo both have really low O&D number compared to the other cities. The DOT considers this.

Also, do you really see ANA and UA both serving SFO? And JL exiting SFO-HND? Personally, I can't see that, and think ANA would use their fourth slot for IAD or IAH, where UA will still have a flight to NRT that they can use for connecting passengers.

DLERT

Did I miss something - NO DFW in the equation rationing the slots ?

Fanjet

Neither is Oregon nor Detroit. So why would those politicians be picking up the phone to make a call to the DOT?

Delta once had two HND slot pairs when everyone else had no more than one. They abused one of those to the point of having it be taken away from them. The DOT is going to be under no pressure to give DL a fair break on this new round of slot allocations. Even with the threat of cancelling PDX-NRT or MSP-NRT service. Because it is an empty threat. Unless there is some logical reason why PDX-NRT would need to be cancelled if they are not awarded MSP-HND or ATL-HND. Because I'm not seeing it.

ClipperDelta

That is not factually correct. AA contested DL's SEA-HND slot (for operating at seasonal frequencies), but at the end the DOT still awarded DL the SEA-HND authority albeit with the condition that DL operate the service daily year-round. If the DOT was interested in punishing DL for its use of the HND slots till then, it could have simply taken the slot away then and then awarded to AA. Instead, it continued to say that the slot should be kept for the SEA service (different gateway serving different area of the country, competitive balance, etc.) but that it had to be operated in the spirit of the original award (i.e., year-round, etc.). Eventually DL returned the slot to the DOT because it considered the conditions too onerous, but the decision to keep or drop was ultimately left in Delta's hands.

sbm12

AA has applied for DFW and LAX service.

Fanjet

That's like a teenager saying, "My parents didn't ground me for two weeks because I stayed out past my curfew. I grounded myself by staying out past my curfew." The DOT set the conditions for Delta to adhere to. Not the other way around. And being required to operate a route which one was given the requested authority to operate is considered "too onerous"?

DA201

They made phone calls because DL threatened to pull NRT-DTW/PDX service if a Haneda deal was reached. Here is an article which talks about this in more detail.

http://www.detroitnews.com/story/bus...okyo/78987754/

Now, DL threatened to cancel ATL/DTW/PDX/MSP-NRT if a deal was reached and they could not move those flights over. In reality, I can't see them canceling all of those flights, even though they will not all receive Haneda service (maybe none of them). But, I would not be surprised if at least one or two of them are cancelled (and then would not be surprised if KE entered the market) because all of those markets have relatively low O&D numbers. DL is concerned that passengers traveling to Tokyo will prefer to connect on a flight to HND instead, which is a legitimate concern. If there was an option to take a one-stop flight to HND and an option to take a one-stop flight to NRT, most would choose HND.

DL does not have a JV with a Japanese carrier, like UA and AA do. This gives them a competitive disadvantage. The DOT helped them in the first wave by giving DL half of the slots. By doing this, NH/UA has 2, AA/JL had 3, and DL had 2.

Now, I originally said that I don't think the DOT will give them half of the slots again because they ended up moving and then losing one of their slots, and they requested 2 cities with low O&D traffic. I said I thought they would end up with two slots, while some others thought they would receive all three requests. I did argue that the DOT will give them at least two in order to increase competition. If you disagree and think DL will only get one slot, that's your opinion.