readywhenyouare

Agreed. HA and AS are probably the two most upstanding airlines in the US. You never hear anything bad coming out of them and the seem to provide a consistent product and service. HA should be given priority in this slot proceeding. The other three airlines have played around with HND far too much. It's disgusting.

FireEmblemPride

No way. If JL and NH keep their HNL flights and HA gets 2, then 1/3rd of the flights would be to Hawaii. That doesn't promote gateway diversity at all, and the whole issue of why HA was so successful with HND had less to do with the airline and more to do with the destination.

readywhenyouare

AA, DL, and UA knew the terms of the slot agreement. If they knew they couldn't make it work then they shouldn't have bid and wasted everyone's time. A full plane from HND-KOA benefits the economy more than a 15% load factor to SEA, JFK, or DTW.

ashill

AA makes the compelling counter-argument that DL alone is significantly bigger in the US-Japan market than AA+JL (because of DL and UA's historical position combined with JL's government-imposed post-bankruptcy growth restrictions).

There's no reason to expect 15% load factors or anything like that with daytime slots. There's every reason to believe that the mainland-HND flights did poorly strictly due to the timing (especially for the non-west coast flights); Hawaii-HND flights have done better simply because night flights to/from HND translate to sensible arrival/departure times in Hawaii.

AA, DL, and UA (and the government) didn't know how badly the flights would do with the time restrictions until they tried. Now they do know. But with comparable times, existing USA-TYO flights should be a good model for how USA-HND flights will do, just as they are in Canada-HND (which has had daytime flights for a while), I believe.

MSPeconomist

Hawaii is a beach (leisure) market. They can fill seats, but yields will be low.

FireEmblemPride

1. UA never operated any of the routes you spoke of. In fact, they never suspended SFO-HND for any reason.
2. The reason for their failures are no longer relevant for this new allocation proceeding.
3. Anyone would have succeeded with HND-HNL.

Longboater

I doubt HAL gets another slot as DOT has repeatedly stated the primary purpose of these flights are for business travelers and while HNL sees plenty of business from Japan, KOA would market almost exclusively toward Japanese leisure travelers. KOA-HND would be great for West Hawai'i but that's pretty much it.

Very interesting choices by UA/DL/AA. I don't believe UA is a virtual shoo-in at EWR as ANA will likely start JFK-HND. I'd be surprised if MSP-HND is approved and it's apparent DL is serious about ending Tokyo service from MSP if its rejected. I will have to read DL's application to see how whiny they are about this whole process, which it turn could annoy DOT to the point where they only receive one HND flight. AA's application for DFW/LAX-HND is quite strong, considering they are reporting a whopping 91.5% LF on LAX-HND since it started. And this is combined with continuing LAX-NRT. It helps AA is using a 788 for the route but their application mentions they are seriously considering upgauging the flight if daytime slot is approved for LAX. So HAL HNL-HND, AA LAX-HND, UA SFO-HND, DL LAX-HND are pretty much locked in with HNL-HND remaining as nighttime. DL's ATL-HND, AA's DFW-HND, and UA's EWR-HND will fight over the two new slots. Could end up being decided how much DOT is willing to put up with DL's constant complaining about HND.

DL-Don

Oh for a daytime arriving ATL-HND!!

ATOBTTR

Well I doubt Fargo - Tokyo is much more or less of a market than say Dothan, AL - Tokyo. While perhaps with less frequency, most major cities that have service to ATL and any kind of sizeable market to Tokyo are also going to have service to MSP, yet routing via MSP will require less backtracking or none at all versus routing via ATL. For the smaller markets that don't, they can still get to Tokyo via Narita through ATL.

It could also be available aircraft types and range and what DL would prefer to use on the route. MSP-HND is 5,981 miles while ATL-HND is 6,882 miles. If MSP-HND is within the range of the 767-300ER, while ATL-HND is not (and I don't have specs in front of me), I could see that being a factor too.

MSPeconomist

MSP-HND on the 767 D1 seats? ick!

bubbashow

Remember the fares on DTW-HND? Couldn't be lower than a 20% LF with $520 round trips.

ashill

Yeah, but that was with the crappy nighttime departures. With comparable times, I can't imagine that XXX-HND fares would be less than XXX-NRT. The only question for DL is whether they have trouble filling the plane without beyond NRT connections. But if they can't fill one-three flights from the US to a major destination even if it's effectively an outstation with few connections, they're in trouble.

The upshot of this experience, to me, is that HND isn't so much more convenient than NRT that customers are willing to pay a premium to arrive and depart in the middle of the night just for the "convenience" of HND. Duh. I'd fly into IAD over DCA if the choice were to arrive at IAD at 1605 or to arrive at DCA at 2300 and depart at 1650 vs 0500. But I wouldn't take any more away from the failure of the nighttime HND flights than that.

ATOBTTR

I'm not saying that is what will happen. I just wonder if that's a factor as MSP-HND is only ~200 miles longer than SEA-PVG, which is served with a 767.


Does anyone know when the new slots would take effect? I have an HND-LAX-SEA award in February 2017 (on AS for the LAX-SEA leg) so my reward options could get interesting if the flights change. I'm actually happy with the 12:10 AM departure right now since it allows me a full day in Tokyo before flying home. Worst case I have DL either 1) put me on the NRT-SEA nonstop or 2) since I'm in J and would love the upper deck, ask them to route me via DTW or JFK on wherever I can get a 747

KDCAflyer

The new Airbuses can't come soon enough. It's kind of ridiculous that DL runs 767s on TPAC flights.

FWAAA

These new awards will be effective approximately April 30, 2017, for the Summer season.

Incumbents temporarily keep their current awards for now (but get to fly them during the daytime as of October 30) thru the Winter season, as daytime HND slots must be requested by May 20 or so.

In February, 2017, DL will be flying HND-LAX during "normal" Japan departure times (probably 1800 or 1830 departure to LAX). Plan accordingly.