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new low for redemption rates?

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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:04 pm
  #1  
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new low for redemption rates?

maybe i've been living under a rock for the last 6 months or so, but i'm looking through flight for a domestic trip and i'm finding some insanely crazy redemption rates -- crazy low.

i'm seeing rates of <0.9cent/mile on both coach and first fares for a seemingly routine flight. usually i think these hovered at least in the 1.2cent/mile category, which i always considered was crazy low.

if anyone wants the specific routes i can write them up, but i was just wondering if this is a new standard that's going to be around from now on?
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:14 pm
  #2  
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DL has a sale on D1 award tickets to Europe, roughly covering summer and early fall, that IIRC ends today. Prices are 105,000 miles from the eastern USA and 115,000 from the west.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:17 pm
  #3  
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Originally Posted by Iridium7777
i'm seeing rates of <0.9cent/mile on both coach and first fares for a seemingly routine flight. usually i think these hovered at least in the 1.2cent/mile category, which i always considered was crazy low.
I think various indications over the past few years (pay with miles, pay for Sky Club drinks with miles, etc.) suggests that the end-game for Delta is somewhere around the 1 cent/mile point.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:24 pm
  #4  
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Originally Posted by dw
I think various indications over the past few years (pay with miles, pay for Sky Club drinks with miles, etc.) suggests that the end-game for Delta is somewhere around the 1 cent/mile point.

i thought the same thing, that they slowly creep from 2->1.6->1.4 and eventually to 1 cent per mile, i guess i'm actually shocked to see that they dip below 0.9.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:27 pm
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In February, I found domestic ATL-TPA award seats for 15K R/T. Lowest cash price for the itin. was $209 R/T at the same time. That's 1.4 CPM, which is a pretty good rate.

PWM sets the par redemption rate at 1 CPM so anything more these days is a good deal and anything less you should use PWM.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:33 pm
  #6  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
DL has a sale on D1 award tickets to Europe, roughly covering summer and early fall, that IIRC ends today. Prices are 105,000 miles from the eastern USA and 115,000 from the west.
touche [i guess]... i looked up mid summer fare from msp to cdg and an $11.3K ticket could be had for 125K miles and $138 in taxes.

not that i would ever buy $11K european fare out of pocket to begin with, but that's an excellent redemption rate that someone could claim.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:35 pm
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I could be wrong, but I think OP means "low" as good thing, not bad. Perhaps a mix-up of the numerator and denominator?

125K for $11.3K trip is about 10 CPM in value.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:43 pm
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i can see this being great for delta, but somehow i can't see this being great for their CC partner AMEX. at this point, i'm not sure why anyone would get the DL/AMEX cobranded card where the redemption rate is starting to dip below 1cent, while on the AMEX one the points are worth 1+ cent through amex directly. maybe that's a discussion for another forum.



Originally Posted by keeton
In February, I found domestic ATL-TPA award seats for 15K R/T. Lowest cash price for the itin. was $209 R/T at the same time. That's 1.4 CPM, which is a pretty good rate.

PWM sets the par redemption rate at 1 CPM so anything more these days is a good deal and anything less you should use PWM.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:44 pm
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Originally Posted by LBJ
I could be wrong, but I think OP means "low" as good thing, not bad. Perhaps a mix-up of the numerator and denominator?

125K for $11.3K trip is about 10 CPM in value.
no i meant low as in terrible. a $319 ticket is coming out to be 50K in miles for coach, a ~500$ ticket is first is priced at 100+K miles.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:47 pm
  #10  
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Originally Posted by LBJ
I could be wrong, but I think OP means "low" as good thing, not bad. Perhaps a mix-up of the numerator and denominator?

125K for $11.3K trip is about 10 CPM in value.
It's roughly the same ratio if a $9.4K ticket is 105,000 miles, 9-10 cpm.

I'm shocked that discounted TATL business class tickets have gotten so expensive.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:47 pm
  #11  
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Look on routes where DL competes with Spirit and is thus forced to offer low cash prices. 40K miles for tickets that can be bought for $234.
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 12:49 pm
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Originally Posted by keeton
In February, I found domestic ATL-TPA award seats for 15K R/T. Lowest cash price for the itin. was $209 R/T at the same time. That's 1.4 CPM, which is a pretty good rate.
Yup, I used the same (15K) last weekend for a RDU-MDW trip. It helps that DL is *not* one of the 4 airlines that flies non-stop from RDU-CHI, so apparently they price accordingly.

Got upgraded on 3/4 flights too...
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 1:14 pm
  #13  
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Originally Posted by Iridium7777
no i meant low as in terrible. a $319 ticket is coming out to be 50K in miles for coach, a ~500$ ticket is first is priced at 100+K miles.
And I can see a number of routes that go for $600 one-way (no matter how far out you book them), and yet I can find 12,500 mile one-way awards on them. Sorry, just not seeing any identifiable correlation between price and mileage amount. Any if you look on the west coast, you can find one-way awards in the 3500 - 7500 range.

Last edited by xliioper; Apr 21, 2016 at 1:19 pm
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 3:14 pm
  #14  
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It's easy to find routes where the redemption rate is terrible ... my experience over the past few months has been incredibly positive quite frankly, the award calendar actually seems to function, there seems to be increasing availability at lower redemption levels, and the low redemption levels have moved lower (e.g., I was able to book MCI-MCO non-stop for 15k round-trip ... then I was able to book MCI-ATL/MSP/DTW-MCO flights for 15k round-trip too (the non-stop is seasonal and Saturday only)).

You also have to consider that for PM/DM members award tickets have the added flexibility of being cancellable/changeable for no fee up to 72 hours in advance of departure. So, on the same MCI-MCO round-trips I mentioned previously ... I could buy those tickets for $230 or so, but they are non-refundable/$200 change fee, and for my situation the flexibility does have value to me. In other words, I don't think it's fair to say my 15k mile award is worth $230/15k miles = 1.5 cpm because the $230 is non-refundable while the 15k miles is refundable, it's just not apples to apples.

The D1 fare sales mentioned previously to Europe are nice too and I've been shocked by the availability, but the 7 day minimum stay on the recent ones is a bit much for me right now (hopefully not once my kids get older ...).
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Old Apr 21, 2016, 4:00 pm
  #15  
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Availability seemed better for 8-10 day stays when I was searching.
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