MSPeconomist

A problem with SQ style book the cook extensive offerings beyond regular meals is what happens if the person who ordered the meal changes flights at the last minute or misses the flight and the FC seat is filled with another passenger? This is much less likely on international long haul flights, but currently if the flight is catered with less normal food because some people ordered a special meals and didn't make the flight, other passengers could be stuck with the special meal against their will. For domestic, the easy fix would be to allow preorders perhaps from an expanded list of special meals, but still no special meals on domestic flights. Otherwise the duplicate catering combined with the added cost of coordinating the orders could get expensive.

javabytes

Except it wouldn't. Because DYKWIA comes from Mr. "I paid $400 for this flight and do so 17 times a week, who the hell are you paying $550 for your one flight this year?"

BusTrav8yrs

Yes, and then that DM on the M fare can see this guy bought a G fare on the 6am and just did an SDC and isn't anything at all.

NoStressHere

Think through this. It will be better for those last minute upgrades.

In the past, they might have two choices. Some people often got "leftovers" then. Actually, that was rather normal.

Under the NEW scenario, many of the folks will already have pre-ordered, so those are already loaded with the EXACT CORRECT mix.

The rest will be a mix of course. But, those that did not pre-select will not be "fighting" with other passengers for that mix.

MSPeconomist

Let's assume that DL loads the same number of meals in total, with the same mix (suppose it's 50-50 between meal A and meal B) of the standard meals for those who did not preorder. Suppose, as now for most domestic flights, that DL loads exactly one meal for each FC seat and there aren't any crew meals that can be offered to unhappy passengers. For simplicity, assume that the aircraft has 20 FC seats and all are occupied. Also to make the case more favorable for the new system, assume that everyone who ordered a meal in advance is on the flight and wants to consume their selection; no one is trying to change their mind about their choice.

In one scenario, if ten people have preordered, there are ten people remaining who (let's assume again for simplicity) prefer A or B with 50-50 probability, identically and independently distributed. For everyone to get their choice, we need to have exactly 5 request A and 5 request B.

In the other scenario, perhaps under the current system, no one preorders a meal. Now we have 20 random drawings for A versus B with 50-50 probability, iid, and we need to have exactly 10 pick A and 10 pick B.

You're more likely to be at (or close to) the exact 50-50 proportion with larger numbers of iid random drawings, so it's easier with 20 than 10 people picking their meals on board. However, of course with only 10 people who didn't preorder, the other 10 are automatically happy, so from this perspective the chance that some randomly selected passenger from all of those in FC will be unhappy is reduced (due to the 10 who preselected and therefore are automatically happy), but a given passenger who did not or could not preselect is more likely to be happy if no one else has preselected either.

Of course, this assumes that the 50-50 meals loaded reflect consumers' true 50-50 preference for A versus B.

Fun with probability, but I suspect I'm not explaining this very well. It's the same principle as the little trick of flipping an unbiased coin many times and watching the results converge (with very high probability) to be very close to exactly 50% heads and 50% tails.

ijgordon

Nah, I think you're just dramatically over-thinking it.

If you get the seat with < 24 hours - be happy you got the seat (whether it's an upgrade, SDC, or whatnot).
If you get the seat > 24 hours, then you can get the meal you want also.

Can we just keep it at that?

MSPeconomist

Nah, that wouldn't be any fun!

Allan38103

Well, I'm just the opposite.

I COULDN'T care less.

Renes Points

BRILLIANT and way to simple for FT. Must be talked to death before rest of news comes out and we all say - OH, OK!

cmd320

It's about time! Now every other airline needs to start offering this as well. Hopefully this will get the ball rolling... ^^

sethb

By allowing some pre-ordering, for a given amount of oversupply, Delta can greatly increase the chance that everyone gets what they want.

E.g. 20 F seats, no pre-ordering, 2 extra meals. Assume 2 choices, equally popular. Then Delta wins provided neither meal is requested by 12 or more people (20% over expected).

If 10 people pre-order, there need to be 7 or more ordering the same meal (40% over expected number).

I could do the general arithmetic to show exactly the probabilities that everyone is satisfied or the expected number of dissatisfied customers, but I get paid for that sort of thing.

sethb

Equal amounts of entrees is foolish if people don't have equal amounts of preference of each entree. But Delta has experience in knowing just how popular each entree is likely to be.

dzflyer

Im good if delta wants to play the percentage game and everybody still gets a meal they like

mnredfox

Too bad for all the WL UG's who don't clear til the gate using GUC's.

sethb

We have a better chance of getting our preferred meal if much of the cabin has pre-selected and Delta boarded meals based on that.