Delta to Move Its Asian Hub?

Old Jan 24, 2016, 6:54 pm
  #31  
 
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
While I applaud your initiative, you assumed a fact not in evidence: that each Diamond flies to or from Asia exactly once each year, and I don't think we have data to support that assumption. You'd need to know the average number of Asian roundtrips each Diamond takes each year to compute the average number of Diamonds on each flight. Unless each Diamond gets only one upgrade cert per year. If that's the case, then ignore.
Yeah, that's definitely not the case, I haven't flown to Asia in 2 years.

However, if we assume there are 40k DMs, then the theoretical maximum number of GUCs per flight (maximum assuming every DM chooses them as a benefit and uses them on TPACs, which of course is not true) is 40,000 * 4 / 46 * 365 = ~9.5 per flight
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 7:03 pm
  #32  
 
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Originally Posted by quasihumanist
When you connect ATL-NRT-SIN, you get off your plane, walk 50 feet, go through a simple security check point with courteous officials who try to speak English, go 50 feet to your new gate, and get on the plane.
IME, the ICN connection experience is similar to the NRT connection experience, except that the officials bark at you in non-courteous Korean, and there's a longer hike between gates and security. Also much more aggressive duty-free salespeople.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 7:14 pm
  #33  
 
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Originally Posted by 31693884
Let's say there are 40k Diamonds [1]
There are 23 daily departures to Asia (and thus 46 in both directions) [2]

So for each TPAC flight there are, on average 2.38 Diamonds. [3]

Some Diamonds will have already booked J. Some Diamonds will not have selected GUCs (or will have used them already). Some Diamonds fly exclusively to Europe or South America.

So I don't think 0.5/flight is off base.

[1] http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...edallions.html
[2] http://news.delta.com/report-undersc...portunity-asia
[3] 40000/(23*2*365)
^ Well done (pointing out to someone that the whole world doesn't center around them, and who doesn't realize that many - if not most - higher tier elites actually pay for the class which they desire to fly; most DMs likely don't ever get GUCs and surprisingly many probably don't even know what a GUC is).

But, don't waste any more effort here. Things like facts, logic and reason just aren't comprehended by a few here.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 7:34 pm
  #34  
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One easy way to get some idea of how many people are using GUCs on TPAC flights is to watch the gate upgrade list on the app. This should consist only of displaced D1 passengers (rare unless there have been IROPs or an aircraft change) and those trying to use GUCs who haven't already cleared.

I saw four on the list for my last TPAC flight, although I wasn't watching carefully so there could have been more.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 7:37 pm
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pvg lacks domestic connection. sha has.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 7:44 pm
  #36  
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Not totally true. There are more domestic flights from SHA, but some (for example, some flights operated by CZ) use PVG.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 7:45 pm
  #37  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
One easy way to get some idea of how many people are using GUCs on TPAC flights is to watch the gate upgrade list on the app. This should consist only of displaced D1 passengers (rare unless there have been IROPs or an aircraft change) and those trying to use GUCs who haven't already cleared.....
NRSA could be on too.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 8:07 pm
  #38  
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Originally Posted by DL2SXM
Would PVG as a hub be a working hub like NRT, insofar that would Delta be able to operate, on their own metal, PVG-SIN, MNL, BKK, HKG...basically all the intra-Asia flights it currently serves from NRT?
No, because the onward traffic rights do not exist and likely will not for the foreseeable future. They exist in Japan based on post WWII treaties for the most part.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 8:56 pm
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Fifth freedom rights are far from unheard of in China. The Chinese government has given them out for development of air hubs in smaller cities, particularly for cargo.

http://www.chinaaviationdaily.com/news/4/4800.html

It wouldn't surprise me if China were willing to give DL a limited set of fifth freedom rights -- say, rights to serve SIN and BKK -- as an incentive for DL to move its Asia hub to PVG and funnel more intl-intl traffic through there.
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Old Jan 24, 2016, 10:26 pm
  #40  
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Originally Posted by TerryK
NRSA could be on too.
AFAIK NRSAs are on the standby list. If you see people on the upgrade list (only), they should already be confirmed on the flight.
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Old Jan 25, 2016, 12:53 am
  #41  
 
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Originally Posted by motytrah
There's been a prevailing opinion in this forum that the sun is setting on Japanese business and that NRT is on right sizing down to actual needed O/D. Out of curiosity I looked up the numbers and I was kind of surprised to see they are back to total passenger operations are back to pre-bank crisis levels. Some of the best numbers ever for NRT despite DL pairing back some of the interport routes the last 5 years or so. It feels like there's still a lot of money on the table in USA/TYO routes.
The aggregate figures for inbound Japan tourism are at historical highs -- nearly 20 million visited in 2015, thanks to the same low Yen that DL and UA keep complaining about. Most visitors come from elsewhere in Asia, but the numbers of Westerners, including Americans, is continuing to grow.

Any reductions DL makes to its Japan flights will assuredly be made up elsewhere, and I don't think anyone here will miss DL in particular.
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Old Jan 25, 2016, 2:31 am
  #42  
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist
AFAIK NRSAs are on the standby list. If you see people on the upgrade list (only), they should already be confirmed on the flight.
That's correct. However, when you see the same name(s) on both standby and upgrade lists, they are likely NRSAs. You need to compare two lists and filter out NRSAs.
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Old Jan 25, 2016, 2:43 am
  #43  
 
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Originally Posted by DA201
One of the big reasons for there being no JV is because of the NRT hub. Tokyo has always been the biggest city for American travelers in Asia, so in the past Delta has always wanted to keep a hub there, even though they currently have no partner. ICN has reached out to Delta in the past and asked Delta to move their hub to ICN and they have said no. Korean therefore has not wanted a JV, as they currently fly to more cities in the US than Delta does from Asia, and they would not be getting the connecting traffic with Delta's hub being at NRT, so they feel as if they would be getting the short end of the stick. If Delta said that it would move its hub to ICN and only fly from ICN to the US and give Korean the connecting traffic, then I think Korean would jump on this opportunity.
Why would ICN care if it's a true JV, like TATL? They get the money away. Look at ATL > MUC, JFK > PRG.
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Old Jan 25, 2016, 9:30 am
  #44  
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Originally Posted by WhiskeyBravo
Why would ICN care if it's a true JV, like TATL? They get the money away. Look at ATL > MUC, JFK > PRG.
ICN doesn't care if it's a true JV. But, DL would only move to ICN if they had a JV with KE, and KE would only have a JV if DL moved to ICN and gave KE the connecting traffic so DL would only operate ICN-USA routes like UA does with NH.
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Old Jan 25, 2016, 10:30 am
  #45  
 
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Originally Posted by Cris L
Way back in the 80's NWA served Seoul from LAX, SEA and from NRT.
However also 3x a week the flight from SEA to SEL continued on to Manila.

I have recollections of other routes from SEL which may have been codeshares with KE, but I can't be sure of this. Perhaps someone with access to those lovely old printed timetables would be able to advise more...

I am fairly sure that I recall NWA calling SEL a minihub, and closing it when they got into financial trouble in the 90s as a result of the Chechi buyout.
From Kimpo (SEL), NW used to fly to HNL, SEA, SFO, LAX, MSP and DTW, as well as to NRT. Don't recall they were codeshared in those days. Now, you cannot even get from NRT to ICN on DL.
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