Delta threatens to pull MSP-NRT flight

Old Feb 19, 2016, 2:40 pm
  #91  
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Originally Posted by TheMoose
On that note, what is the O/D to NRT from DTW and ATL?
I don't know ATL's numbers. DL disclosed the average # of originating pax per day on the following NRT flights: 57 from DTW and 24 from MSP. You'll find these in the different articles linked from this thread.

My guess is ATL would be higher than DTW, but not by much.


Originally Posted by jjka
Source? What makes you "think" that?
Also worth a mention, Portland, Oregon hosts over 130 Japanese companies and this number doesn't include the entire state of Oregon.

Intel, like Nike, also is buying a ton of PDX-NRT-PVG flights as Shanghai is Intel's number one destination in Asia. Delta would do very well PDX-PVG with support from both Nike and Intel.
Are you counting every sushi restaurant in Portland? The facts are 1) MSP's O/D to NRT is small, 2) MSP is a larger metro area with higher GDP than PDX, and 3) dontcha know they have the most Fortune 500 companies (per capita).

There are probably ~5 cities in the US that can generate enough O/D for a daily NRT flight and PDX, MSP, DTW, ATL aren't on that list.
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Old Feb 19, 2016, 3:46 pm
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Originally Posted by k2


Are you counting every sushi restaurant in Portland? The facts are 1) MSP's O/D to NRT is small, 2) MSP is a larger metro area with higher GDP than PDX, and 3) dontcha know they have the most Fortune 500 companies (per capita).

There are probably ~5 cities in the US that can generate enough O/D for a daily NRT flight and PDX, MSP, DTW, ATL aren't on that list.
From the Japanese Consul office in Portland:
http://www.portland.us.emb-japan.go....00_000097.html
" First, the number of Japanese companies in Oregon increased to about 140 firms."

Some other interesting facts about the relationship of Oregon and Japan:
http://www.portland.us.emb-japan.go....06).pdf

The point is that PDX is much more likely to have nonstops to Asia than MSP due to stronger business and cultural ties. Being on the west coast also helps PDX's case for nonstops the Asia.
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Old Feb 19, 2016, 5:34 pm
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Sure, MSP's O/D to NRT may be small, but some of that is likely Delta's doing - their prices encourage us to connect. I was booking a D1 ticket from MSP to NRT a few months ago and saved ~$2k by connecting in LAX vs. taking the direct flight. It's unlikely that my corporate travel policy is the only one around here that encourages/rewards/requires that kind of behavior...
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Old Feb 19, 2016, 8:02 pm
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More context about the PDX-NRT flight:

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/in...a_critica.html

A highlight: "In 2014, more than 145,000 visitors from China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan spent time in Oregon and spent in excess of $80 million during their stay. Many of these passengers arrived on the Delta's nonstop flight from Japan."
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Old Feb 19, 2016, 8:08 pm
  #95  
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Originally Posted by pdxray
More context about the PDX-NRT flight:

http://www.oregonlive.com/opinion/in...a_critica.html

A highlight: "In 2014, more than 145,000 visitors from China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan spent time in Oregon and spent in excess of $80 million during their stay. Many of these passengers arrived on the Delta's nonstop flight from Japan."
Is PDX still known as "Deportland"? Apparently many Japanese people have avoided entering the US through PDX as they have a much higher chance of being sent back home on the next flight. This was a small factor in Delta's failure to make PDX an Asia gateway back in the 90's.
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Old Feb 19, 2016, 8:10 pm
  #96  
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Originally Posted by TheMoose
Yes, and? They also operate onward flights from NRT:

BKK, GUM, HKG (ending soon), ROR, MNL, KIX (beginning soon), SPN, PVG, SIN, TPE.

That's a lot of seats to fill.
Note that they operate just the number of flights into Japan as needed to fly routes out of Japan to non-US locations. Some of these flights probably only exist to ensure they can continue to offer service to interport destinations. As soon as they can use MU they won't need to fly as many US-NRT flights.
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Old Feb 19, 2016, 10:42 pm
  #97  
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Originally Posted by k2
What are the O/D numbers for PDX-NRT? Without that the rest of your statements are pure speculation. PDX people constantly talk about Nike, and MSP people bleat about Fortune 500 companies - well, the reality is MSP's O/D to NRT is tiny and my money says PDX is even less.
Originally Posted by TheMoose
On that note, what is the O/D to NRT from DTW and ATL?
Here are some actual Tokyo O&D numbers:

For the 12 mo ended November, 2014, PDX-TYO had 53 passengers daily each way (PDEW). DTW had 52 PDEW and ATL had 49 PDEW. Those three cities were ranked 12th, 13th and 15th in a ranking of USA-TYO O&D.

The top three cities were LAX at 593 PDEW, NYC at 478 PDEW and SFO at 292 PDEW.

SEA featured 129 PDEW, just three fewer than ORD.

The data is MIDT data courtesy of AA's application to take away DL's SEA-HND flight.

It's clear that PDX-NRT would not be viable without some connections at NRT, while DTW and ATL could exist without NRT connections due to the large hubs on this end.
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 1:56 am
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Originally Posted by FWAAA
Here are some actual Tokyo O&D numbers:

For the 12 mo ended November, 2014, PDX-TYO had 53 passengers daily each way (PDEW). DTW had 52 PDEW and ATL had 49 PDEW. Those three cities were ranked 12th, 13th and 15th in a ranking of USA-TYO O&D.

The top three cities were LAX at 593 PDEW, NYC at 478 PDEW and SFO at 292 PDEW.

SEA featured 129 PDEW, just three fewer than ORD.

The data is MIDT data courtesy of AA's application to take away DL's SEA-HND flight.

It's clear that PDX-NRT would not be viable without some connections at NRT, while DTW and ATL could exist without NRT connections due to the large hubs on this end.
Are you sure those (LAX,NYC,SFO) are the top 3 for the entire US? Or just the mainland? I'd expect HNL<->NRT to be a clear #1, much higher than LAX<->NRT.
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 5:58 am
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Originally Posted by MiniApple
Sure, MSP's O/D to NRT may be small, but some of that is likely Delta's doing - their prices encourage us to connect. I was booking a D1 ticket from MSP to NRT a few months ago and saved ~$2k by connecting in LAX vs. taking the direct flight. It's unlikely that my corporate travel policy is the only one around here that encourages/rewards/requires that kind of behavior...
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 7:01 am
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Originally Posted by readywhenyouare
Is PDX still known as "Deportland"? Apparently many Japanese people have avoided entering the US through PDX as they have a much higher chance of being sent back home on the next flight. This was a small factor in Delta's failure to make PDX an Asia gateway back in the 90's.
As Japan was the second nation to be approved for the Visa Waiver Program (after the UK) in 1988, what are these turn-backs that you refer to?
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 9:00 am
  #101  
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Originally Posted by danielchee
How many tourists go to MSP?
I'd think very few. Of course, this is where someone pops in to say "Mall of America", but it ain't the draw it used to be and I am sure a great many of the "tourists" that visit it are regional tourists.

Originally Posted by danielchee
Let's be honest, business travelers account for a decent percentage of air travel, but personal travel still out number them. Asian leisure travelers would probably prefer LAX, SFO or JFK as a stop over where they can stay a few days then continue on (making an assumption here based on cultural experience).
I'd question just how extensive MSP's international business travel is. Not sure how reliable the below is, but it isn't completely out of whack with the Mastercard survey (which stops at 10 NA cities), but I'm confident that MSP is well-outside the top 20.

https://skift.com/2014/06/18/20-most...elers-in-2013/

Heck, even including domestic travelers, MSP fails to crack Tripadvisor's top 25 rankings. Anyone that has been to MN in winter can readily tell you why that is the case.

At the end of the day, I'd think that MSP relies almost entirely on the O side of O/D to attract international visitors. And on that front, there seem to be a few factors working against MSP-origin traffic to Asia. Chief among them is the very domestic-oriented businesses in MSP. People (rightly) point to the large number of Fortune 500 HQs in the MSP area as evidence of the quality of the business climate and work force. The problem, from an international O/D perspective, is that virtually every single one of them is almost exclusively domestically focused. Yeah, I'm sure Target buyers head overseas from time to time, but the MSP areas simply lacks the sort of companies driving high-volume, high-yield international travel.
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 9:30 am
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Originally Posted by Sabai
As Japan was the second nation to be approved for the Visa Waiver Program (after the UK) in 1988, what are these turn-backs that you refer to?
Originally Posted by New York Times
''Monstrous'' is the word used by Portland's mayor, Vera Katz. The executive director of the Port of Portland says the city's reputation has been tarred by ''Gestapo-type actions.'' A state senator here says the conduct in question is ''racist and xenophobic.'' And United States Senator Gordon H. Smith, a Republican, put it this way today, ''We don't want Portland to be known as ''Deportland.''

All four are talking about the conduct of the local branch of the federal Immigration and Naturalization Service. The furor has been fanned by the recent strip-search and two-night jailing of a Chinese businesswoman who had landed here on her way to New York. But public officials were already concerned that immigration agents were detaining or deporting foreign travelers at a much higher rate than at other West Coast airports.

For Portland, which labored mightily to persuade Delta Air Lines to establish a minihub here with nonstop flights to Asia, the controversy over the immigration office has been a blow to the city's image abroad. The South China Morning Post reported recently that the city was already known as ''Deportland'' in some Asian countries, and the Kyodo News Service of Japan has also reported on the problems, prompting some Japanese travel agencies to advise their customers to avoid flying through Portland if possible.

Delta has already scaled back its cross-Pacific flights to Portland to two a day, both from Japan, having once had four daily nonstops, including flights from Seoul, South Korea, and Taipei, Taiwan.
More from the article available at the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/31/us...h-the-ins.html
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 10:46 am
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Originally Posted by SEA-Flyer
More from the article available at the New York Times:
http://www.nytimes.com/2000/08/31/us...h-the-ins.html
Thanks for sharing; for those who recall the pre-9/11 USG, the INS was the absolutely worst federal agency in existence. The whole lot were morons, and there was no "service" at all.
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 12:09 pm
  #104  
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Originally Posted by SEA-Flyer
Are you sure those (LAX,NYC,SFO) are the top 3 for the entire US? Or just the mainland? I'd expect HNL<->NRT to be a clear #1, much higher than LAX<->NRT.
Yes, I inadvertently omitted "Continental US," as HNL is far and away the leader. My bad.
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Old Feb 20, 2016, 1:54 pm
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Originally Posted by Sabai
As Japan was the second nation to be approved for the Visa Waiver Program (after the UK) in 1988, what are these turn-backs that you refer to?
The PDX hub had more than just flights to Japan. There were a good number of Asia destinations served. I'm just going off what has been reported by DL employees. PDX CBP had/has a much higher rate of return.
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