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Yes, there really are fewer upgrades these days

Yes, there really are fewer upgrades these days

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Old Jul 16, 15, 1:14 pm
  #1  
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Yes, there really are fewer upgrades these days

Does it feel like upgrades are more rare than before? That's probably because it is true. During the quarterly earnings call yesterday Delta indicated that the paid load factor in F was up to 57% last quarter. It was at 13% around the beginning of the decade.

And the goal is to reach 70%.

On the plus side, the cost differential to get up front on a paid basis is much more affordable these days than a decade ago.

More details after the click.

n.b. The link above is to my blog or to one which I am a regular contributor. FT rules require that I disclose that in the post.
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Old Jul 16, 15, 1:20 pm
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Originally Posted by sbm12 View Post
Does it feel like upgrades are more rare than before? That's probably because it is true. During the quarterly earnings call yesterday Delta indicated that the paid load factor in F was up to 57% last quarter. It was at 13% around the beginning of the decade.

And the goal is to reach 70%.

On the plus side, the cost differential to get up front on a paid basis is much more affordable these days than a decade ago.

More details after the click.

n.b. The link above is to my blog or to one which I am a regular contributor. FT rules require that I disclose that in the post.
Did they note the overall F load factor? I thought the airlines were running 85-90% -- if that's right we're talking about just 2-3 upgrades/flt
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Old Jul 16, 15, 1:35 pm
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Originally Posted by aCavalierInCoach View Post
Did they note the overall F load factor? I thought the airlines were running 85-90% -- if that's right we're talking about just 2-3 upgrades/flt
Not really. If the paid F is running 57%, that leaves 43% for other methods to sit up front. A 739 has 20 F seats, just under 12 are purchased which leaves 12 for upgrades.

The F load factor is always 100%, unless you don't have any Medallions on a flight.
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Old Jul 16, 15, 1:46 pm
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Vacation time. I see a lot of FF with families in F. Bet they paid with miles too
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Old Jul 16, 15, 2:03 pm
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Originally Posted by MAMOHT View Post
Vacation time. I see a lot of FF with families in F. Bet they paid with miles too
Are redemptions counted as "paying" for these purposes?
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Old Jul 16, 15, 2:10 pm
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Originally Posted by jacobac00 View Post
Not really. If the paid F is running 57%, that leaves 43% for other methods to sit up front. A 739 has 20 F seats, just under 12 are purchased which leaves 12 for upgrades.

The F load factor is always 100%, unless you don't have any Medallions on a flight.
Interesting maths
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Old Jul 16, 15, 2:11 pm
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Originally Posted by jacobac00 View Post
Not really. If the paid F is running 57%, that leaves 43% for other methods to sit up front. A 739 has 20 F seats, just under 12 are purchased which leaves 12 for upgrades.

The F load factor is always 100%, unless you don't have any Medallions on a flight.
Your math is a little off. At 57%, that's 11.4 seats, so on average, 11 to 12 seats on a 737-900 are being sold which leaves 8 to 9 available for upgrades (not 12).
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Old Jul 16, 15, 2:21 pm
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Originally Posted by MAMOHT View Post
Vacation time. I see a lot of FF with families in F. Bet they paid with miles too


Q2 is more business than vacation typically. Q3 is more vacation travel typically.

And, AFAIK, points redemption for F awards counts as paid in the stats.
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Old Jul 16, 15, 4:23 pm
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I find that it's mostly route dependent. As a PM I'm 1 for 10 exATL and 24 for 25 elsewhere.

My wife (also PM) and I both got our upgrades for next week (LGA-MSY and MSY-LGA) at the 5 day window.

We also both got OpUps this Tuesday ARN-JFK.
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Old Jul 16, 15, 6:09 pm
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Originally Posted by Bicostal View Post
Interesting maths
Originally Posted by ATOBTTR View Post
Your math is a little off. At 57%, that's 11.4 seats, so on average, 11 to 12 seats on a 737-900 are being sold which leaves 8 to 9 available for upgrades (not 12).
Haha, that must be my optimism showing.
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Old Jul 16, 15, 9:52 pm
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Originally Posted by jacobac00 View Post
Not really. If the paid F is running 57%, that leaves 43% for other methods to sit up front. A 739 has 20 F seats, just under 12 are purchased which leaves 12 for upgrades.

The F load factor is always 100%, unless you don't have any Medallions on a flight.
not if you are on intl flights
they don't upgrade anymore even with medallions
(if I wasn't mistaken ... )
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Old Jul 17, 15, 3:04 am
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Originally Posted by SuperG1955 View Post
I find that it's mostly route dependent. As a PM I'm 1 for 10 exATL and 24 for 25 elsewhere.

My wife (also PM) and I both got our upgrades for next week (LGA-MSY and MSY-LGA) at the 5 day window.

We also both got OpUps this Tuesday ARN-JFK.
I suspect you mean 10% on flights to or from ATL and over 95% on other flights you take. It would be very odd to be upgraded rarely on flights FROM ATL and almost always on flights TO ATL unless people were losing status like crazy as punishment for leaving the ATL area even on DL flights. On second thought this could be possible if you travel from ATL at consulting times and to ATL at leisure times, but that would be unusual too.
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Old Jul 17, 15, 4:18 am
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Originally Posted by MSPeconomist View Post
I suspect you mean 10% on flights to or from ATL and over 95% on other flights you take. It would be very odd to be upgraded rarely on flights FROM ATL and almost always on flights TO ATL unless people were losing status like crazy as punishment for leaving the ATL area even on DL flights. On second thought this could be possible if you travel from ATL at consulting times and to ATL at leisure times, but that would be unusual too.
ATL 2015 - 10 flights (5 trips with a connection in ATL)

MSY-ATL DL2433 12-Jan 11:15 UG at gate 757
ATL-LGA DL1786 12-Jan 14:45 No UG 739
LGA-ATL DL0781 22-Apr 12:00 No UG M80
ATL-MSY DL1277 22-Apr 15:55 No UG M88
LGA-ATL DL1447 10-Jun 06:00 No UG M90
ATL-MSY DL2433 10-Jun 08:55 No UG M88
MSY-ATL DL2602 10-Jun 11:50 No UG M88
ATL-LGA DL1786 10-Jun 15:00 No UG 739
LGA-ATL DL0343 15-Jun 11:00 No UG M90
ATL-MSY DL1293 15-Jun 15:00 No UG M88

All X and V Fares


Any other data needed?
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Old Jul 17, 15, 7:23 am
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Originally Posted by SuperG1955 View Post
ATL 2015 - 10 flights (5 trips with a connection in ATL)


All X and V Fares


Any other data needed?
Do that LGA-MSY run another 40-50 times and you can upgrade with miles the next time you have to route through ATL!!!
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Old Jul 17, 15, 7:27 am
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Is this news? As I recall Ed Bastain said the goal was to sell up to 80% of the FC seats via paid upgrades, so Delta management is just doing what it said it was going to do.
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