Impact Analysis from a Data Geek
 

My frequent traveler programs are part prize, part game to me. I keep crazy spreadsheets that track just about everything under the sun related to them.

A new addition to my 2015 SkyMiles sheet has calculations for RDM differences on the new program.

I fly fairly cheap as I generally know where I am going well enough in advance and my employer adheres pretty tightly to 14 day advance purchase to which I hold to right at that mark usually.

5 RTs, MSP based and my RDM deficit from the 2014 program is already -13,109 miles.

Even reductions in the award chart will not account for this kind of loss.

Anyone else tracking this on a trip by trip basis?

Award chart, what's that?

I track it on a trip by trip basis. I have a column for 2014 miles earned and 2015 miles earned.

So far I am down based on what the trips would have earned under the 2014 scheme. That said, there are some trips that have earned more. It really just depends on any given week.

I've bought a few Fc fares last minute. A change for me. So I have some fares under and others over. Wish there was still class of service bonus.

My RDM deficit from the 2014 program to 2015 Program is already > -13,109 miles from 1 One Way .....

enuff said!

You guys are gluttons for punishment. I track what I should earn to keep Delta honest. I doubt they are going back anytime soon (I hope I'm wrong) so why wallow?

Due to the distances involved, 2015 SkyMiles is spectacularly bad for international travel flying economy - or really even domestic travel for anyone west of the Mississippi unless they're commuting on short regional hops. For example:

(All 1 week adv purchase fares are actual quotes from Delta.com for round trip flights departing Monday March 2nd as of Feb 19th. Historical data is from faremeasure.com. Both actual fares overestimate earnings because they include taxes.)

SEA-NRT - Breakeven $1900 for general member, $1950 for Diamond; 1 week adv purchase $1123
SEA-AMS - Breakeven $1950 for general member, $2000 for Diamond; 1 week adv purchase $1456
SEA-ATL - Breakeven $875 for general member, $900 for Diamond; Average fare $547; 1 week adv purchase $668
MSP-LAX - Breakeven $625 for general member, $650 for Diamond; Average fare $515; 1 week adv purchase $398
SEA-LAX - Breakeven $400 for general member, $400 for Diamond; Average fare $315; 1 week adv purchase $247
SEA-PDX - Breakeven $200 for general member, $200 for Diamond; Average fare $251; 1 week adv purchase $224
SFO-LAX - Breakeven $200 for general member, $200 for Diamond; Average fare $262; 1 week adv purchase $148

Note the real breakeven values are actually worse, because these calculations assume nonstops: in many cases a real itinerary would involve connections on these routes, which would increase the 2014 earnings.

So, yeah. Unless you're flying SEA-PDX, or booking very last minute fares, or flying F, you're not coming out ahead on any of these routes in almost all cases.

Even some of the discounted F fares yield lower earnings under SM2015.

I track way too much detail, only an excerpt of data points shown here. I'm at ~25% of Old RDM's. My 6 segments over the next 2 weeks will be about the same.

http://i58.tinypic.com/34gknk1.jpg

Holy cow! Your MQD's are crazy low. Unfortunately, you are exactly who Delta was targeting with the changes.

I did my own tracking all last year, as soon as DL announced earning rules for 2015. This was an ongoing indicator that I need to shift my paid travel away from DL, as I don't plunk thousands of dollars on airfare.

My 2014 stats:
Segments: 45
MQMs: 78,156
MQD: $4,391
RDMs: 132,696

With the Amex waiver, I made Platinum Medallion for 2015 (again), so I used the PM level earning for comparison.

Under the 2015 rules, I would have earned 49,330 RDMs, which is a difference of -63%.

Effectively (assuming mythical formerly-known-as-low can be found) I earned one int'l r/t BE award last year. Assuming same flying pattern, I wouldn't earn enough for even a one-way.

My paid tickets are on 001 stock now.

Thank you, I work hard at accomplishing that.

2014 I flew 60 segments, 82707 BIS MQM and MQD's were $6121 for an average of .074 cpMQD. There were 2 last minute business trips and a very overpriced AZ fare to avoid an Italian ATC strike that added over $1000 MQD and .01 cpm to my average.

I'll be doing between 60 and 75K BIS MQM this year and hope to keep it under .06 cpMQD and thank you AMEX Waiver.

As an aside, note the UG % as well.

I realize that we get screwed on BIS RDM's but my wife and I (she's also a PM) each get 90K+ from our DL Reserve cards, which combined with our measly allotment from BIS and a little carryover gives us each enough for a TATL J every year. We have no trouble finding Low since we book early. We have JFK-MAD-CDG-JFK booked late Aug through mid-Sept at 125K each in J.

As with full Y fares. Which I discovered last month on a last minute purchase that still netted fewer miles.

You seem to be complaining that DL fares on these routes are too low.

Or ATL-IAD/DCA/BWI/PHL/LGA in coach booked 3+ weeks out. That's what I've been doing and I seem to be either breaking even or coming out slightly ahead.

On the contrary, I'd say people with MQDs that low are the people DL wants to stop targeting. ;)

(Yes, I know it's just a turn of language and we're saying the same thing.)

+1. Also, do we really need another thread comparing 2014 to 2015? There are already multiple threads with people throughout both generalizations and specific comparisons, and as someone else said, continuing to track the comparison serves little purpose other than to give you heartburn if you're on the losing end.