Kevin Liu

DL cancelled all the 787 order .....
If I recall, SEA-HKG is using A332 with "weight restriction" so the destinations are rather limited
A350s are going to be based at DTW as a start but no clue whether they'll move to SEA

Mountain Explorer

While DL is clearly toying with you, I don't think there is really any doubt. If the deal goes thru, KE will be group 1. Period. DL will share all the profits on KE flights across the ocean, so they'd be punishing themselves by not moving KE to group 1

SEA-Flyer

There is also the A330-900 coming into the fleet that might help.

Mountain Explorer

How? It has less range than the A332

SEA-Flyer

Remember that not all 332s have the same range. The range of brand new 332 aircraft is longer than Delta's fairly old 332 due to changes Airbus has made over the years allowing for higher takeoff weight, different thrust engines, etc. The range on Delta's 332 aircraft is about the same as the 339.

If they are going to be stuck having to operate weight restricted aircraft anyways (due to their poor fleet planning regarding the 787), the A339 would have superior economics to the A332.

Longboater

The 242 toone A330-900 NEO is designed to have slightly more range the Delta's 233 tonne A330-200s. Given the plane has not undergone testing, let alone a first flight, its too early to say whether it will under or over-perform range expectations. Airbus has talked up potentially upping the MTOW of the NEO to 245 tonnes and even 248 tonnes, giving the aircraft potentially over 7,000 nm of range. However, this is getting closer and closer to A350-900 territory. So assuming the A330-900 NEO meets range expectations, the aircraft will have to the range to fly routes as long as DTW-NRT/NGO/ICN/PEK, MSP-HND, LAX-PVG, and all of SEA-Asia. Hence, its possible the A350-900 may not end up seeing SEA. Delta did indicate the A330-900 NEO's would perform some West Coast-Asia flying.

Getting back to the KE/DL JV and potential routes, DL will likely consider adding MSP-ICN, using a A330-200, maybe as early as next year. I figure Delta would have added MSP-ICN this year had they not received the award to fly MSP-HND. Loads were initially poor but have recently improved. Delta may try to move the HND next year, most likely to SEA, as AA's back-up DFW-HND slot expires. But its just speculation on my part. Delta may play it safe and keep MSP-HND indefinitely until more HND slots open up just before the 2020 Olympics. Other than HNL-Japan and maybe PDX-NRT, I don't see any more cuts to NRT other than drawing down the remaining fifth freedom routes. I wouldn't be surprised to see KE or DL start PDX-ICN. TYO is the largest Asian market from Portland, so Delta may end up keeping the route as NRT will get a PDX nonstop back on either JAL or ANA within a year if Delta pulls out of the market.

kop84

I bet the life of PDX/NRT will come down to how much the swoosh needs to go to TYO or if they mostly use NRT to get to other Asian destinations. If the former it stays, if the later I bet it will be moved to ICN, or as you said DL or KE will add PDX/ICN.

As you said as well, if PDX/TYO is a popular O/D market JL or ANA would definitely consider the add if DL drops it.

DA201

I think DL only keeps ATL, DTW, SEA, and HNL out of NRT. They will all switch to HND when new slots open in 2020 (or whenever). I think PDX will be picked up by KE as a new destination from ICN so DL is able to keep the pax. DL used the PVG slot for a US flight. Maybe DL adds some of the Asian destinations from SEA down the road (as they will need to in order to compete with UA). I think DL will add service from ICN to MSP and eventually SLC (if they have a small enough aircraft). It would also be smart for DL to add a flight to JFK. KE could also expand in the US as well (BOS) comes to mind.

pbarnette

I think you are confusing the HGW improvements to the A330-200 with the A330-900, which is based upon the A333. The A339 will still have less range than the A332.

Regardless, the A332 is already a very capable plane for most of the routes it would be used on ex-SEA. And DL has other aircraft in the fleet and on order that can supplement those capabilities. It isn't a lack of aircraft that is preventing SEA expansion.

kop84

It's clearly the customs facility limitations at SeaTac.

http://www.seattletimes.com/business...-arrivals-hub/

The current facility was built to handle 1,200 per hour, but at peak times it can be 2,000 per hour, and the new one will be able to handle 2,600 per hour, and I'm sure it will get stretched a bit past that at times

Longboater

Of all of the HNL-Japan flights, HNL-NRT at a minimum will stick around for a while. Market is that big. While HNL-FUK/NGO are back to daily nonstops this summer, Delta has no competition on HNL-FUK and has to compete with just one JAL flight on HNL-NGO. The problem for Delta is on HNL-KIX/NRT with AirAsia X starting HNL-KIX on their 377 seat A330-300s this summer and in the longer term, ANA dumping capacity in what is expected to be double daily HNL-TYO A380 flights in 2019. With the reduction in capacity from where it once was, I think Delta had two 747s and an A330 on HNL-NRT and a 747 and an A330 on HNL-KIX, I'm not sure how much longer Delta would be willing to fly HNL-Japan with low yielding high capacity aircraft entering the market in the near future. KE does fly HNL-NRT as a fifth freedom flight. All of this being said, it would be very surprising if DL/KE left the HNL-NRT market entirely. Eventually Delta will probably restart SEA-KIX. The local market is there and there are many more connection opportunities. Question is will the Japanese economy be in decent enough shape to make it work.

TYO is the second largest local international market for Portland, trailing only Vancouver. As Delta has a monopoly on the route, I see it staying or JAL or ANA immediately picking it up should Delta choose to drop the route. The loca market between PDX and SEL is about half the size of PDX and TYO although connections throughout East Asia are much greater NW's NRT at its peak. Delta is starting a seasonal PDX-LHR route in addition to its longstanding PDX-AMS route inherited from NW. Other than Condor and Icelandair's seasonal route to Europe, Delta is the only airline operating intercontinental routes from PDX. So it all really comes down to corporate demand in PDX and Delta has so far not walked away but rather looked for potential opportunities to expand. If PDX-LHR is successful and goes year round, it may give incentive for Delta to look at potentially adding PDX-CDG. In the long run, PDX will have a connection to Asia on DL/KE whether it be a daily flight to NRT and ICN or just ICN with ANA/JAL picking up PDX-NRT.

I have no clue when or how many more HND slots will be available for the US. Delta receiving additional HND slots depends on how many become available. The only two NRT flights where DL has to compete is on SEA-NRT with ANA, which is where Delta would probably prefer to have the second HND flight instead of MSP, and HNL-NRT which I discussed earlier. The local MSP-TYO market is much smaller than PDX-TYO, predominately relying on connections to make it work. Its why the loads on MSP-HND initially stunk, although its been reported they are much much better.

MSP/BOS-ICN are likely inevitable with the JV in place with DL operating MSP-ICN and KE operating BOS-ICN. Due to the altitude, the only chance for SLC-ICN is for KE to operate one of its 787-9s on the route. In a previous post I mentioned how Delta operating a JFK-ICN, despite three daily A380s flights on the route, wasn't out of this world and Delta is probably considering it for the near future. LAX-ICN, well, there is an argument where there is more than enough capacity to go around with four daily A380 flights and a 77W flight operated by SQ, which will go away after LAX-SIN nonstop resumes next year. I guarantee that AA will start LAX-ICN shortly after SQ leaves the market. So there really isn't any room for Delta on LAX-ICN. As for what happens to NRT-PVG, its either ATL-PVG or LAX-PEK with the odds on the latter. Delta isn't expanding in LAX just for domestic purposes. Delta tried ATL-PVG before and the loads just weren't there. Delta is much better off competing with CA and soon AA on a large LAX-PEK market than having a monopoly on a smaller ATL-PVG route.

No, no I am not confusing the two. NW received 233 tonne A330-200s back in 2004-2006, alongside the 233 tonne A330-300s which were at the time referred as the A330-323X. The 233 tonne A330-300 was a major improvement over previous A330-300s which previously had range limitations, largely limiting the plane to East Coast-Western Europe. These aircraft could perform PNW-AMS/CDG, SEA-NRT/ICN, and just about any East Coast-Europe/Deep South America flight. The longest schedule flight this aircaft could perform is LAX-NRT. Delta does not have any 242 tonne A330-200s, whose range is comparable to the 787-8. According to Airbus, the given range for the 233 tonne A330-200 is 6500nm while the projected range for the A330-900 NEO is 6550nm. The nine and soon to be ten 242 tonne A330-300s in Delta's fleet have a Airbus given range of 6350nm. Delta is starting to dedicate those aircraft on routes this fall with JFK-TLV and LAX-HND switching from 777s to 242 tonne A330-300s at the end of October.

Once the new IAF is complete, I presume Delta will get back to adding a few more Trans-Pacs ex-SEA and upgauge some flights. If Airbus meets the projected range for the A330-900 NEO, I don't expect the A350-900s to be headed to SEA unless Delta launches a few ULH flights, which is unlikely.

xliioper

DL specifically states that A339 will be used for some West Coast - Asia flights here:

"The widebody A330-900neo, an enhancement of Airbus' successful A330 family featuring greater aerodynamic and economic efficiency, will be deployed on medium-haul trans-Atlantic markets as well as select routes connecting the U.S. West Coast and Asia. "

http://news.delta.com/delta-adds-a35...its-fleet-plan

kop84

A combined DL/KE could likely make AA think twice about LAX/ICN should SQ drop the route.

Longboater

Its widely assumed, especially on the SQ forum, that LAX-ICN is temporary as SQ dropped SFO-ICN-SIN in favour of SFO-SIN nonstop in order to compete with UA's SFO-SIN, which took SQ by surprise. As a result of adding LAX-ICN-SIN, SQ took the A380 off LAX-NRT-SIN, which is known to be one of SQ's best fifth freedom performers, and replaced it with a 77W. Once LAX-SIN resumes, presumably in the Fall of 2018, no way SQ continues LAX-ICN and LAX-NRT will stay with the 77W. If Delta opens the second A350-900 base at LAX, it would really stick it to AA if Delta launches LAX-ICN immediately after SQ ceases the route.

kop84

I would highly suspect DL to add LAX/ICN even if SQ doesn't drop the route. And it's impossible for us here to think of the chess game that is going on with DL/KE on routes and who will fly what, and what will be new and the metal swaps that are sure to happen.

Look how much DL/VS switch things around at LHR with either carrier flying the route and testing VS vs. DL and then flipping it back trying a new route etc.

Currently KE has ATL, ORD, DFW, HNL, IAH, LAS, LAX, JFK, SFO, SEA, IAD, YYZ and YVR

DL currently (or soon) has SEA, DTW, ATL

MSP is clearly a hole, but I would not be shocked to see BOS, and PDX added. SLC maybe

After that if there are any additional adds or moves is anyone's guess.