What to do, what to do...
 

Apparently I was so busy this year quitting my job and going to grad school that I neglected to realize I only had 23,400 miles, not 53,400. Long story how I made that brain fart, but that's water under the bridge.

Next year I have about 35,000 miles worth of travel booked through March already.

So I'm going to drop from GM to dirt at the moment. Is there ANY reason what-so-ever to do a MR to hit SM, or would you just let it lapse and roll the miles over so that I'll be GM again by Q1? Are they doing rollover again this year and if so, is there some loophole I don't know about how miles won't roll over since I didn't qualify for any elite level?

Miles only rollover if you hit at least FO. Why not just buy MQM to get to silver? People pooh-pooh FO, but at least it's SOMETHING.

Good luck!

Without any elite level, no miles will rollover and you will lose your 23,400 miles. It might be worth a 1600 mile MR, a 2500 MQM purchase, or a credit card app to get to silver by the end of the year.

Also at end of Feb, (if you have not reached FO by then), you will lose your upgrade requests for the travel you have already booked, and I guess free checked bag and 25% mileage bonus.

Good luck.

As others have stated, no rollover unless you go over 25,000 MQM's for 2013. Even if you do an MR or purchase MQM's, your rollover will be modest. Since you will still have Gold status until Mar 1, 2014, it doesn't seem to me to be worth it to purchase miles or do an MR. There's a couple of MR options out of CVG and DAY on 12/25 or 12/31 that will earn 2000 miles for ~$250. But I just don't see that much benefit, particularly if you can earn 25K MQM's by Mar 1.

Your GM status is good through Feb 28, 2014. You said you have 35k miles booked through March. As soon as you hit 25k MQMs and 2500 MQDs you will have Silver through Jan 31, 2016. It sounds like you will have little if any time as a General Member. It's unfortunate that you lose this year's MQMs, but if you will make 2015 Silver before or immediately after your 2013 Gold expires I don't see any reason to waste money on 2014 Silver.

A very insightful analysis. ^ ^

David

Assuming that MQDs will not be a constraint for you next year, I'd suggest doing MRs if you would otherwise drop to dirt on February 28 because you will not accumulate 25,000 MQMs during January and February.

OTOH, if MQDs will keep you from claiming status next year, you might want to do a MR now to at least retain FO for another year.

Interesting. I thought I remembered something about miles not rolling over but since I never thought I would drop that low I never committed it to memory.

mattp1987 you have valid points, I didn't consider gold benefits continuing through February. The gap between GM and when I re-qualify for SM will only mean I'll lose my request for upgrades on CVG-DTW for my trip to China... I can't see my upgrade chances being stratospheric as an SM so it's kind of a moot point.

even if you fly the 25k miles during Jan-Feb-Mar, you will not qualify for Sliver until you meet the MQD spend... I would do a quick MR before the end of the year to lock-in the Sliver status thru Feb 2015.

How do you know his spend on the 2014 tickets don't meet the MQD threshold? MQD's are credited when you fly the flights, not when you purchase.

OP - you realize (as others have pointed out) that MQM's don't rollover if you don't make status? Also, you mention GM, which requires 50,000 MQM's and $5,000 MQD as a heads up.

Everyone else has mentioned rollover, so I'll point out 25% bonus miles for FO. If you already have 35k booked, as a no-dallion you'd earn the flat 35k redeemable miles, but as an FO, you'd be getting 43,750. 8750 miles difference (or $87.50 if valued at 1cent/mile) isn't bad for taking a short flight to keep some basic status.

But OP will be a GM earning 100% bonus for Jan-Feb. Then he'll have one trip to China as a no-dallion after which (or more likely in the middle of which since OP mentions losing the upgrade request on the outbound but not the return) he'll be back to FO. This means he's giving up maybe 2000 Skypesos.

The other thing to consider is that he's giving up exit row seating on the international flight(s) and free EC at T-24 on the CVG-DTW leg. Depending on how OP values these, I suppose a cheap MR could make sense. However, it might be cheaper to sit in kettle class for a 229 mile flight, buy up to EC for the TPAC (should be able to buy now at GM 50% off rate), and forgo the bonus miles for this one trip.

No-dallion? That's cute. You should trademark the word.

EC is likely to cost $9 for CVG-DTW, which could make sense if the OP can't reserve a good seat.

The current MQMs should be viewed as a sunk cost. Yes, those MQMs will essentially be wasted and not rollover, but this shouldn't affect the OP's decision. Is it worth the MR now to avoid not being at least a FO for a few flights? Normally the beauty of the January-February where the previous year's status continute is just this sort of situation that allows a person to regain status almost before they notice that it has been lost. However, this will soon go away too when the DL FF program year shifts to a February 1 date.