Would you buy 430,000 miles at 0.18 a mile?
#1
Original Poster
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Washington,DC
Posts: 1,732
Would you buy 430,000 miles at 0.18 a mile?
I have a choice
1. DCA to JNB for 380,000 miles in Biz
2. DCA to JNB for $7800 in cash
3. DCA to JNB in M using SWA for $5800
Option
1. Depletes my account
2. Means I end up with 430,000 miles extra for a cost of 1.8C a mile
3. If available I get 420,000 miles extra for a cost of 1.1 cents a mile
MQM's and MQD's are not relevant to my decision
Based on likely changes to the program (unknown) I'm not sure what to do
430,000 miles is two medium award tixs to Europe worth $4500 each, so makes paying for the trip a smart move...but if the program devalues before I redeem it might not be
What would you do?
1. DCA to JNB for 380,000 miles in Biz
2. DCA to JNB for $7800 in cash
3. DCA to JNB in M using SWA for $5800
Option
1. Depletes my account
2. Means I end up with 430,000 miles extra for a cost of 1.8C a mile
3. If available I get 420,000 miles extra for a cost of 1.1 cents a mile
MQM's and MQD's are not relevant to my decision
Based on likely changes to the program (unknown) I'm not sure what to do
430,000 miles is two medium award tixs to Europe worth $4500 each, so makes paying for the trip a smart move...but if the program devalues before I redeem it might not be
What would you do?
#4
Join Date: May 2002
Location: STL
Programs: DL PM/1MM, DL SkClub LT, Marr LT Plat, IHG Plat, HH Diam
Posts: 1,917
#6
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: BOS
Programs: DL DM 2MM, Marriott LT Titanium, Hertz PC
Posts: 14,210
I think option 3 is irrelevant since there is almost never advance inventory to use an SWU on that route... and often it goes out full so if you fly on a busier day its likely that you could be sitting in the back.
The calculation is all screwed up however... you don't get 430k miles for 1.8c/mi. You already have 380k miles so those should not be counted in the cost calculation of the new miles. You would be obtaining an additional ~40k for $7800 = 19.5c/mi
The relevant part is the potential/equivalent cost of what you can get with the 430k miles, which you said is 2x tickets worth $4500.
The calculation is all screwed up however... you don't get 430k miles for 1.8c/mi. You already have 380k miles so those should not be counted in the cost calculation of the new miles. You would be obtaining an additional ~40k for $7800 = 19.5c/mi
The relevant part is the potential/equivalent cost of what you can get with the 430k miles, which you said is 2x tickets worth $4500.
#8
Join Date: May 2000
Location: Home: Arlington, VA; Home airports: IAD/DCA/BWI
Programs: Active: AA, UA, DL
Posts: 4,092
The other option: Route through LHR on either DL or VS and then use VS from LHR to JNB for 140k.
Then #2 if you think you'll be able to use the miles elsewhere at the standard (low) redemption rate level.
Then #1 if you don't. While I value SkyMiles at 1.5 cents per mile, the 2 cents per mile effective redemption rate seems okay given the fact DL's SkyMiles are getting devalued by the minute.
Then #2 if you think you'll be able to use the miles elsewhere at the standard (low) redemption rate level.
Then #1 if you don't. While I value SkyMiles at 1.5 cents per mile, the 2 cents per mile effective redemption rate seems okay given the fact DL's SkyMiles are getting devalued by the minute.
#9
Join Date: Nov 2012
Location: ATL
Programs: Bonvoy Ambassador, Hyatt Globalist, Hilton Gold, AA EXP, UA Silver, former DL DM
Posts: 1,981
It is true that mile inflation occurs over the long term. However, 1) mile inflation happens slowly and through small adjustments to the award chart, meaning any effect it has will be marginal enough that it should not change your current evaluation of these options, and 2) DL just increased the low-level J TATL redemption rate for travel starting June 2014 and probably will not make another change in the near term. Even if they do, you would probably have about a year of advance notice before it takes effect.
#14
Join Date: Oct 2007
Programs: Now just a lowly DL PM/1MM. This industry needs some competition.
Posts: 3,540
#15
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: Almost heaven
Programs: DL MM, Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 5,653
If you mean 18 cents per mile, it's much better deal to buy couple grand of flowers to earn 40 cents per dollar.
If you mean .18 cents, it's a great deal. Anything below 2 cents per mile would be a great value.
If you mean .18 cents, it's a great deal. Anything below 2 cents per mile would be a great value.