Would you buy 430,000 miles at 0.18 a mile?
 

I have a choice

1. DCA to JNB for 380,000 miles in Biz
2. DCA to JNB for $7800 in cash
3. DCA to JNB in M using SWA for $5800

Option

1. Depletes my account
2. Means I end up with 430,000 miles extra for a cost of 1.8C a mile
3. If available I get 420,000 miles extra for a cost of 1.1 cents a mile

MQM's and MQD's are not relevant to my decision

Based on likely changes to the program (unknown) I'm not sure what to do

430,000 miles is two medium award tixs to Europe worth $4500 each, so makes paying for the trip a smart move...but if the program devalues before I redeem it might not be

What would you do?

I would not book an M fare unless you can confirm the upgrade space for the SWUs.

@OP

How do you calculate getting 420,000 miles on DCA-JNB....

4. Search award availability via ST partner airlines by picking up the phone.

It costs 380,000 miles. So he's getting 40k miles, and keeping 380k miles.

I think option 3 is irrelevant since there is almost never advance inventory to use an SWU on that route... and often it goes out full so if you fly on a busier day its likely that you could be sitting in the back.

The calculation is all screwed up however... you don't get 430k miles for 1.8c/mi. You already have 380k miles so those should not be counted in the cost calculation of the new miles. You would be obtaining an additional ~40k for $7800 = 19.5c/mi

The relevant part is the potential/equivalent cost of what you can get with the 430k miles, which you said is 2x tickets worth $4500.

Get an award nexus subscription it should be much cheaper^

The other option: Route through LHR on either DL or VS and then use VS from LHR to JNB for 140k.

Then #2 if you think you'll be able to use the miles elsewhere at the standard (low) redemption rate level.

Then #1 if you don't. While I value SkyMiles at 1.5 cents per mile, the 2 cents per mile effective redemption rate seems okay given the fact DL's SkyMiles are getting devalued by the minute.

Use a SWU if you can, or buy a J ticket. Don't go with option #1. Although 2 CPM is an acceptable redemption rate, I would not redeem your entire balance at this rate since you would clearly be able to redeem your miles at higher redemption rates on other trips.

It is true that mile inflation occurs over the long term. However, 1) mile inflation happens slowly and through small adjustments to the award chart, meaning any effect it has will be marginal enough that it should not change your current evaluation of these options, and 2) DL just increased the low-level J TATL redemption rate for travel starting June 2014 and probably will not make another change in the near term. Even if they do, you would probably have about a year of advance notice before it takes effect.

This thread makes no sense.

Sure it does. If I have $900 in my bank account and I go to buy a $200 shirt and use a coupon for $100 off I just made $800!!!

Anyone else read the title of the thread as 18 cents per mile?

Yes. The title either means $0.18 (eighteen cents) or 0.18 cents (less than one penny).

I believe my ex-wife perfected that method of fiscal management.....

If you mean 18 cents per mile, it's much better deal to buy couple grand of flowers to earn 40 cents per dollar.

If you mean .18 cents, it's a great deal. Anything below 2 cents per mile would be a great value.