Skymiles Change Rumor?

Closed Thread

Old Mar 24, 12, 12:01 pm
  #976  
Suspended
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: HKG
Programs: DL FO, UA, AA, AsiaMiles, SPG, HHonors
Posts: 7,982
Originally Posted by waltinsocal View Post
Yes, I read the thread. I agree with your 2 suggestions, but I don't recall anyone else posting them above. They are good suggestions, especially number 2 about promos and giveaways. I would add that getting rid of credit card miles would be nice but that is never going to happen.

I stand by my comment about upgrades, or the lack of them. At least on the routes I fly, planes are packed. DL is simply not going to increase capacity to give out more free upgrades. No one here seems to recognize that. I would submit that, like it or not. FCM is here to stay as well.
Why? DL sells them to Amex and earns more per mile than it costs DL to redeem them. That makes good business sense for DL. The more miles DL can sell without flying a plane the better off they are. You and bubbashow and the others should be happy about that and want DL to sell more miles via Amex and non-flight partners, not fewer.
HongKonger is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 12:24 pm
  #977  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Bye Delta
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, IHG Plat, Hyatt Plat, SPG Gold, MR Gold, Nat'l Exec Elite, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 14,870
Originally Posted by HongKonger View Post
Why? DL sells them to Amex and earns more per mile than it costs DL to redeem them. That makes good business sense for DL. The more miles DL can sell without flying a plane the better off they are. You and bubbashow and the others should be happy about that and want DL to sell more miles via Amex and non-flight partners, not fewer.
Until devaluations keep happening becuase airlines have too many miles on their books, and people start to distrust points/miles cards altogether.
javabytes is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 12:38 pm
  #978  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Detroit, MI USA
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 5,038
Originally Posted by HongKonger View Post
His post didn't make any more business sense than any of yours do. Neither of you is familiar with the more advanced concepts of inventory management when that inventory is produced at a very inelastic rate and is perishable.
Yet I am in radio where once the airtime for sale passes, there is no getting it back. My career path has also made me very adept at identifying people that want something for nothing.
bubbashow is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 12:38 pm
  #979  
 
Join Date: May 2008
Location: Up in the Air
Programs: DL MM; CO PM / UA1K
Posts: 565
DL, like every company, needs to continuously improve its product. The current FF offering has some gaps:
  • DL does not offer a revenue based FF tier (similar to the LH Hon or MP GS) - DM has no revenue requirements.
  • No incentive to fly more the the threshold for the highest tier (eg additional CPUs and GPU issued for every X miles flown on MP) - there are several members on this board that are flying other airlines since the rollover miles will allow them to maintain DM status for several years.
  • Sub-par international upgrade policy - Telling $20k/year international road warriors that they are not eligible for upgrades did not help DL's market share in that sector.
I would therefore assume that the rumors have a kernel of truth.

Trying to pull a Mullin (reduce MQM for low fares) will be applauded by UA and AA and will cost the CEO his job if the customer backlash turns out to be bigger than anticipated - I believe DL top management are savvy enough to avoid this risk.

Adding a revenue based tier is probably looming, and in all honesty if somebody flies my schedule in paid BE his loyalty is worth much more than mine.

A few observations regarding this Thread:
  • There was a similar rumor on the UA forum a few months before they announced the new program rules. It took the company rep on FT less than a week to post a message stating that some of the rumors are exaggerated (without providing any details that could be later used against UA). DL seems to disregard this forum.
  • Numerous posters are complaining about upgrades. Where did this sense of entitlement come from? I wonder how many of those posters believe that their business should maintain an excess level of premium inventory?

Happy Travels
DLP
DLPhoenix is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 12:54 pm
  #980  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Detroit, MI USA
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 5,038
Numerous posters are complaining about upgrades. Where did this sense of entitlement come from? I wonder how many of those posters believe that their business should maintain an excess level of premium inventory?

LOL....just search 3 letters FCM. You will see complaint after complaint that DL is selling inventory out from under Elites for 49, 69, 89 dollars. What they fail to mention is that the rate is generally over M+ fares. The DYKWIA mentality on here is priceless. Many on this board make an argument that DL is better holding that inventory for upgrades than selling it for a premium over average fare.
bubbashow is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:00 pm
  #981  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Apr 2009
Location: Bye Delta
Programs: AA EXP, HH Diamond, IHG Plat, Hyatt Plat, SPG Gold, MR Gold, Nat'l Exec Elite, Avis Presidents Club
Posts: 14,870
Originally Posted by bubbashow View Post
Numerous posters are complaining about upgrades. Where did this sense of entitlement come from? I wonder how many of those posters believe that their business should maintain an excess level of premium inventory?

LOL....just search 3 letters FCM. You will see complaint after complaint that DL is selling inventory out from under Elites for 49, 69, 89 dollars. What they fail to mention is that the rate is generally over M+ fares. The DYKWIA mentality on here is priceless. Many on this board make an argument that DL is better holding that inventory for upgrades than selling it for a premium over average fare.
Or negative 49, 69, 89 dollars.

http://www.flyertalk.com/forum/delta...es-stupid.html
javabytes is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:00 pm
  #982  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Planet Earth
Programs: | *G | STE | HGP ♦ | SPG Au | MR Au
Posts: 3,772
Originally Posted by jsmith50 View Post
Why do HVCs care about program changes in which they will still benefit? Simple, if DL changes to a revenue-based model and mileage value decreases then we all suffer. It doesn't matter if the new system stratifies earned mileage by medallion level and top tier medallions earn the most miles if the redemption value goes to 500,000 miles for an international BE award ticket it makes it very difficult for all of us to use our miles. Plus, we have all seen the disappearance of domestic UGs at window and with continuing FCM this promises to only worsen with time.

I recognize that as a HVC, I will still benefit personally, but if it takes an entire year of flying to accumulate enough miles for that international BE ticket then I have lost and all of you flying 25,000 miles a year have definitely lost. This is a lose-lose proposition for all of us!
TOUCHE!

one of the few UHVC on this thread who seems to understand the implications better than the others.

Originally Posted by nypdLieu View Post
What is the % of people who spend $100K+ a year on air travel on Delta? Its probably a very small %, but I have no data to base that on. There are plenty of folks, like me, who spend between $10,000 and $15,000 a year on airfare. What does that make us, chopped liver? If DL decides to start treating us like chopped liver and ham sandwiches, then I hope DL doesn't think they could stay in business by only catering to the rich and famous.
+1

Making an educated guess, I would think that customers who spend 10-15K a year are between 1 or 2 sigma on normal distribution curve, meaning top 20%. Why? Because Delta earns about $28,000,000,000 of revenue a year and has about 100,000,000 enrolled in their frequent flyer program (this number is conservative, 1 in 3 Americans). Based on those number, the average frequent flyer pays $280 a year to contribute. While, I honestly expect the distribution to be skewed, I do not know how much it skews the data.

So yes, in my mind, 10-15K is HVC (I am in that bracket as well). While we may not contribute as much as the 100K flyer, who I view as UHVC, our contributions are significant enough that if droves of us move or stop spending, it hurts DL as much as a few UHVC leaving. We are talking 10 HVC (10-15K customer) is the same as 1 UVC (100+K), and 100 HVC cost Delta 1-1.5 Million in revenue. That ain't chump change and will erode profit, unless more enhancements are introduced meaning that in order to maintain profit DL fields either a worse product or charges those who continue to fly more as a means to keep up.

Last edited by DHalltheway; Mar 24, 12 at 1:12 pm
DHalltheway is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:11 pm
  #983  
 
Join Date: Jun 2010
Location: Austin, TX
Programs: DL DM; DL AMEX Reserve; HHonors Gold
Posts: 1,820
Originally Posted by DHalltheway View Post
Making an educated guess, I would think that customers who spend 10-15K a year are between 1 or 2 sigma on normal distribution curve. Why? Because Delta earns about $28,000,000,000 of revenue a year and has about 100,000,000 enrolled in their frequent flyer program (this number is conservative, 1 in 3 Americans).
100,000,000 medallions is conservative?
DeltaFan4Now is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:16 pm
  #984  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Planet Earth
Programs: | *G | STE | HGP ♦ | SPG Au | MR Au
Posts: 3,772
Originally Posted by DeltaFan4Now View Post
100,000,000 medallions is conservative?
Yes!

Considering that not all Medallions are Americans: I am in that group.

PS: I said medallions, never said anything about their activity. I am also willing to bet that approximately 1/3 of that group is inactive, but I don't have real numbers to extrapolate. But if we take that 2/3 spend money into consideration, the average spending per medallion is still a grand total of $420+ per medallion!

Last edited by DHalltheway; Mar 24, 12 at 1:28 pm Reason: adding PS:
DHalltheway is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:31 pm
  #985  
A FlyerTalk Posting Legend
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Yiron, Israel
Programs: Bates Motel Plat
Posts: 61,270
Originally Posted by bubbashow View Post
Numerous posters are complaining about upgrades. Where did this sense of entitlement come from?
It comes from Delta. It has gone out of its way to install that sense of entitlement into its FFs.

Its advertisements and its website give you the impression (although it is never actually said) that once you make FO you will be showered with upgrades.

"You've reached Medallion status and now it's time to reap the benefits."

Among those benefits are "Unlimited Medallion Complementary Upgrades" which you will be notified that you will receive one day before departure.

Of course, experienced fliers realize that these are as rare as domestic award ticket for 25,000 SkyMiles r/t, but that fact is not, in the least, emphasized by Delta anywhere.
Dovster is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:35 pm
  #986  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
2019 FlyerTalk Awards
 
Join Date: Jun 2008
Programs: Formaldehyde Medallion DL DieMiles
Posts: 12,239
Originally Posted by DHalltheway View Post
Yes!

Considering that not all Medallions are Americans: I am in that group.

PS: I said medallions, never said anything about their activity. I am also willing to bet that approximately 1/3 of that group is inactive, but I don't have real numbers to extrapolate. But if we take that 2/3 spend money into consideration, the average spending per medallion is still a grand total of $420+ per medallion!


It is not hard to envision large portion of the membership spending less than $500 (as in, one flight) per year.

Think of all the AMEX card holders who signed up to get their 25K miles, believing that they might be able to use them some day.
StayingHomeIsBetter is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:51 pm
  #987  
 
Join Date: Sep 2003
Location: Detroit, MI USA
Programs: DL DM
Posts: 5,038
Originally Posted by Dovster View Post
It comes from Delta. It has gone out of its way to install that sense of entitlement into its FFs.

Its advertisements and its website give you the impression (although it is never actually said) that once you make FO you will be showered with upgrades.

"You've reached Medallion status and now it's time to reap the benefits."

Among those benefits are "Unlimited Medallion Complementary Upgrades" which you will be notified that you will receive one day before departure.

Of course, experienced fliers realize that these are as rare as domestic award ticket for 25,000 SkyMiles r/t, but that fact is not, in the least, emphasized by Delta anywhere.
I agree totally that DL created this. However, a certain amount of responsibility of expectations has to lie with the individual. If that weren't the case, I'd watch the latest MegaMillions commercial and go buy something I can't afford.

Among those benefits are "Unlimited Medallion Complementary Upgrades" which you will be notified that you will receive one day before departure.

again...most people ignore the "space available". Dl determines the amount of space, not us.

Last edited by bubbashow; Mar 24, 12 at 1:56 pm
bubbashow is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:52 pm
  #988  
 
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Atlanta, GA, Franche Comté, FR
Programs: DL DM, 2MM, BA Gold
Posts: 188
Originally Posted by DHalltheway View Post
Yes!

Considering that not all Medallions are Americans: I am in that group.

PS: I said medallions, never said anything about their activity. I am also willing to bet that approximately 1/3 of that group is inactive, but I don't have real numbers to extrapolate. But if we take that 2/3 spend money into consideration, the average spending per medallion is still a grand total of $420+ per medallion!
Symantics problem here......perhaps 100 million skymiles members:absolutely NOT 100 million silver/gold/plat/diamond medallions. For medallions we would need to move over some decimals...
ATLCDG is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 1:58 pm
  #989  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Planet Earth
Programs: | *G | STE | HGP ♦ | SPG Au | MR Au
Posts: 3,772
Originally Posted by bubbashow View Post
I agree totally that DL created this. However, a certain amount of responsibility of expectations has to lie with the individual. If that weren't the case, I'd watch the latest MegaMillions commercial and go buy something I can't afford
This strongly reflect Delta as a company, especially when the CEO continually states that the company is "founded on integrity, loyalty, and mutual respect".
DHalltheway is offline  
Old Mar 24, 12, 2:02 pm
  #990  
 
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Planet Earth
Programs: | *G | STE | HGP ♦ | SPG Au | MR Au
Posts: 3,772
Originally Posted by ATLCDG View Post
Symantics problem here......perhaps 100 million skymiles members:absolutely NOT 100 million silver/gold/plat/diamond medallions. For medallions we would need to move over some decimals...
You are correct, my bad for calling someone with no status a medallion.

But I do believe that you only need to move over 1 decimal as I think DL has more than 10 million FO/GM/PM/DM. Especially with rollover and ways to earn non flying MQM.

Last edited by DHalltheway; Mar 24, 12 at 2:09 pm
DHalltheway is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread