MSPeconomist

It's part of the New World.

mooper

While I understand it for those who redeem for international awards and/or those without status, for mid and upper elites who fly primarily domestically, I still have trouble understanding blanket assertions of devaluation. Rumors abound about how things *might* change, but I continue to get substantially greater value out of my miles than last decade. 25K domestic awards are still the same price and easy to come by for elites with a little flexibility (especially last minute, and especially compared to low/saver availability on peer airlines), and yet they now replace tickets that generally cost much more than they used to. To boot, they now get you first class much of the time, even if you're just Gold. Overall, I've averaged about 2.5 CPM in value (exclusively domestic) over the past year. In recent years, it hovered more around the 2 CPM mark.

Yes, slightly less favorable for the Platinum, but again, I was trying to simplify the example of optimal use (Reserve card, spend $30K or $60K on the nose, get 1.5 RDMs + .5 MQMs per $.) Of course, these cards also come with hefty fees, but you can squeeze lemonade out of that if you can utilize the companion certificates well. I do this by replacing $400+ RJ-heavy tickets I'd otherwise be paying for that aren't upgrade-eligible anyway. Others may find the lounge access, upgrade tiebreakers (Reserve only), etc valuable.

HongKonger

Hey mooper, are you related to da yoopers?

javabytes

I used to think so too. Not so much anymore. Close in availability has tightened. It's still there, jut not in the quantities it was a year ago. (The IdeaWorks survey also captured this.) Couple that with P fares/FCM, and last minute walk up fares get you FC where in the past they often did not. I can't say last minute Low awards with instant upgrades to FC represent the same value they did a year ago, now that those awards are probably 25-50% harder to come by and FCM has brought the price of FC lower than it has ever been.

MSPeconomist

In comparing the value of miles now versus years ago, don't forget about inflation: higher cents peer mile redemptions might be better ot worse. A better simple metric would be how many current paid flights are needed to earn an award. Since miles earning hasn't changed much except for special double/triple/bonus mile promos, when more miles are required for the same award ticket, those miles have become less valuable. If we're going to compare cents per mile redemptions, we should also calculate how much was spent to earn those miles to get a rough percentage give back number.

monitor

Sooooooooo. I expect you to have a fully-notated spreadsheet showing all of this stuff by the time that you get to SEA.

MSPeconomist

Sorry but no.

mooper

I've sown my seed far and wide, but no, I don't think so.

My experience indicates the same, but not to the degree you suggest. Coupled with slightly less close-in availability has been greater advance availability (I noticed the change coincided with the implementation of the 72-hour-change-rule for free reissues/cancellations), so not necessarily something I see as a negative. Also, it seems like domestic low/saver awards on peers have become less available during the same time frame, albeit I'm basing this upon my own limited searches/redemptions, not global data.

Good point; you're saying that for someone who is still actively accumulating miles, the cost of acquiring miles is just as relevant as the cost of redeeming them. (For someone with a set stash, not so.) Miles earned by flying aren't the only means of acquisition. The ability to earn via the credit card method I summarized above has remained steady, and while bonus opportunities among all airlines are rarer now than a couple years ago, I still find my cost of acquiring Skymiles to be far cheaper than other airlines (US is a close second). On balance (weighing both acquisition and redmption costs), and especially compared to the same variables with peer airlines, I'm getting relatively higher value out of SkyMiles than I was 1-3 years ago.

mnredfox

Mooper, not sure if you've tried to redeem miles recently but even domestic for me has been very very hard in low. Doesn't matter logged in or not, close in or not, flexible or not. I used to concede to you 25k is easy argument and J is hard, but now I'll have to openly disagree.

gooselee

I know I'm far less experienced than most, but FWIW I'm beginning to plan a trip to South America for a few months from now, and have had no problem finding low awards in First/BE for that trip.

Sure, we're planning months in advance and are somewhat flexible with our dates, but given that I'd only ever book award tickets for personal travel (when I have such flexibility and am planning in advance), I'm having no personal issue with the low inventory right now.

MSPeconomist

Your stash of DL miles represents a sunk cost. You cannot undo those flights or purchases or credit cards.

For me, the value of DL miles dropped greatly when the partnership with SQ ended. Those were awards I really wanted and would not have purchased. For DL BE flights, it's largely a matter of comparing prices and miles, plus especially considering whether I want/need to earn more MQMs. Now that domestic award tickets can be upgraded, I'm willing to consider them, but I haven't seem any redemption values as good as long haul BE, where M and above fares are rarely on sale for me but I can sometimes find low.

mooper

Yup - I'm still doing them at the same clip. Could you give an example or three (not cherry-picked to suit one airline's heavy presence) of routes where DL has much less low/saver awards where US/AA/UA have many? The few times I have serious trouble finding 25K with a little flexibility, it's almost always the case that no peer has it for that rate either.

Right, that's what I was saying. As for international use - I take no issue with that. DL has been a laggard in international awards all along (with a few specific exceptions). Domestic, on the other hand, they've been golden in my book.

AA_EXP09

SFO-MIA

mooper

Of course, MIA is a hub for AA, so you wouldn't be comparing apples to apples, but I'm seeing roughly 1/3 of days with saver available on DL in Aug (using Medallion inventory - after all, I was discussing domestic for mid-to-upper elites) and very wide open in the fall.

Pick out ten random routes and dates wholly within the 48 states for mid-level elites. You'll find that DL has just as much 25K availability as the others, if not more, and when they don't, 32.5 usually does the trick. Not to mention that the 25K will get you first class much of the time instead of coach.

AA_EXP09

Also checked UA....