RIP CVG

Old Jul 10, 2011, 12:31 pm
  #151  
 
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Originally Posted by NYBanker
There's no natural reason to keep dtw as a hub. Once MEM goes (if it hasn't in your opinion gone already), dtw will be next.

Hubs deserve to exist when there's both a strong o&d market and it is a strategically located connection point. O&d volume is falling at dtw, and with msp relatively nearby (nullifies the strategic connection value), dtw doesn't serve much purpose. Indeed, the population of Detroit is now lower than it was in 1910 - a negative compounded growth rate over 100 years! Not a lot on the horizon to make me think that trend is going to change any time soon.
By that logic EWR will shuttered NOW because Newark, NJ is far too small to support much O/D traffic

While the city of Detroit's population is in free fall... the population of the wealthier surrounding counties is quite stable. You have to look at area served, not just nearest city.

In addition DTW's facilities are the best that Delta has in its system. While flight numbers and composition (rj vs mainline and domestic vs international) seem to be in flux at DTW... DL will not be de-hubbing DTW
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Old Jul 10, 2011, 1:57 pm
  #152  
 
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Originally Posted by NYBanker
There's no natural reason to keep dtw as a hub. Once MEM goes (if it hasn't in your opinion gone already), dtw will be next.

Hubs deserve to exist when there's both a strong o&d market and it is a strategically located connection point. O&d volume is falling at dtw, and with msp relatively nearby (nullifies the strategic connection value), dtw doesn't serve much purpose. Indeed, the population of Detroit is now lower than it was in 1910 - a negative compounded growth rate over 100 years! Not a lot on the horizon to make me think that trend is going to change any time soon.

This isn't about killing nw heritage, it's about trying to make a buck. Recall, DL is a profit seeking business. Heck, I suspect the Detroit municipal employees pension fund is a delta shareholder! I imagine they'd like a good return on their shares.
You really need to educate yourself.

On the local economy:
--The city of Detroit's population is irrelevant. Detroit is predominately a welfare state.
--Because its economy is heavily dependent on automotive-related business, Metro Detroit was adversely impacted by soaring fuel costs and a collapse of the financial markets in 2008.
--The automotive industry continues to rebound as automakers adjust to changing consumer tastes and increase their presence in developing nations.
--As a 'NYBanker,' you know that the credit market is still tight. Many major lenders would rather finance a used automobile, which is why used auto sales continue to be strong with average sale prices often higher than expected. And credit unions continue to finance a disproportionately high number of new car sales. GMAC/Ally's stubbornness lead GM to purchase a sub-prime lender as its new financing arm, although few lenders are currently offering this option. U.S. Bank has long desired to get into dealership (among the Big 3, dominated by Ally & Comerica) financing and increase its consumer leases, but continues to be conservative in this economy.
--The tight credit markets go beyond new car sales. For example, a family friend closed two of this three tool and die shops during the collapse. Today, he's offered more work than he can handle and would like to re-open a second facility but hasn't been able to acquire the funding to do so.

On DTW:
--The airport never experienced the nose dive in O/D traffic that one would expect given the collapse in the local economy. A heavy reduction in general aviation traffic helped the offset.
--Traffic numbers continue to rebound despite soaring airfares. Many business markets are at or near the numbers they were before the collapse. The biggest loss continues to be in leisure travel, specifically to Orlando, Las Vegas and Beach Markets. However, DL's market share is often at or near NW's levels pre-2008; Spirit Airlines has taken the biggest hit.
--MSP cannot handle the overwhelming majority of DTW's traffic flows. DTW serves too many small & midsized communities (in the Midwest/East) in which a RJ operation could not support. Especially not with $100+ oil.

On the Future:
--DTW's O/D will continue to increase as the auto industry continues to rebound. DTW is already a top-7/8 O/D market to Asia (from the continental US). That number won't climb but should be stable in the years to come. [The Big 3 require suppliers who do business with them to have a local presence.]
--There's still a huge market for a traditional network (e.g. hub and spoke) model; people will still need to connect somewhere. In less than 10 years, DL has chosen DTW over CVG, the new UA will likely close CLE, AA closed STL, US PIT, HP CMH, etc.

Not a lot on the horizon to make me think that trend is going to change any time soon.
Maybe the thousands of jobs the Big 3 are restoring, and the thousands more they'll support. Or maybe the fact that tens of thousands of autoworkers and public service employees (especially teachers and police - among the oldest in the nation) will be retiring within the next few years. People have left the region because they couldn't find a job, but soon people will be moving (back) to the region because that's where the jobs are.

Places like MI, IN and OH that were hurt by the automotive collapse have brighter futures than places like CA and FL...
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Old Jul 10, 2011, 2:01 pm
  #153  
 
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Originally Posted by Burj
By that logic EWR will shuttered NOW because Newark, NJ is far too small to support much O/D traffic

While the city of Detroit's population is in free fall... the population of the wealthier surrounding counties is quite stable. You have to look at area served, not just nearest city.

In addition DTW's facilities are the best that Delta has in its system. While flight numbers and composition (rj vs mainline and domestic vs international) seem to be in flux at DTW... DL will not be de-hubbing DTW
Exactly. The Detroit Metro area has grown SIGNIFICANTLY since even the people of population in the City proper (Somewhere in the 50s, I believe...) To try to say because the city of Detroit has less population now than it did 100 years ago means nothing about the metro area. Detroit is one of those cities where the suburbs boomed at the expense of the city, but the region itself has not suffered the same decline.

To suggest that Delta will begin a debubbing of Detroit is laughable.
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Old Jul 10, 2011, 10:41 pm
  #154  
 
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Delta and CVG

I have been an elite member of Delta Sky Mile program for the last 6 years. Currently, I am a Gold Elite (by choice BTW). I stopped flying Delta last year at 73000 MQM miles and 97 segments. I wanted 23000 MQM rollover miles. I will be Gold Elite for next year as well.

I feel the same way as the thread starter about CVG and Delta cuts. I understand the reason for sending CVG flights to DTW. It is getting more difficult to find convenient flights out of CVG. Well, I decided to do something about it. I asked United for an Elite Status in July of 2010. Not surprisingly, they granted Premier Executive status to me. I was a Platinum Elite last year. Since August of last year to now, I have 111 segments with United (about 11 months). I have 38 segments with Delta. I now only fly with Delta if their schedule is convenient to me. I know many people from Cincinnati area fly Delta exclusively due to Sky Miles. If you want to get elite status with other airlines, just ask them. They will grant the status. I picked United due to many of my flights are toward east coast or northern states. They granted me the elite status within 24 hours!

Also, I avoid flying through DTW at all cost unless I absolutely have to. They have the slowest ground crew. DTW has one of the nicest facility in the US, but the nicest airports do not mean a thing if you get stuck in DTW due to missed connections even though the originating flights were on time.

For a strong hub, DTW really seem to have trouble filling planes lately. Last 3 flights through DTW (CLT, BOS, and LAX in March and April) had less than 50% loads in B738s. The CLT flight at 5:30 PM on Wednesday in April had more first class passengers than coach class. It was very strange to see B738 being that empty.
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Old Jul 10, 2011, 11:38 pm
  #155  
 
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Originally Posted by Rustbelt
I now only fly with Delta if their schedule is convenient to me. I know many people from Cincinnati area fly Delta exclusively due to Sky Miles. If you want to get elite status with other airlines, just ask them.
While there's no question the market's loyal to SkyMiles, the majority of people from CVG continue to travel Delta because the schedule's convenient. This summer, DL operates 149 departures to 57 destinations. The routes being cut, to IND, DAY, SDF, SBN, etc., have no local traffic.

For a strong hub, DTW really seem to have trouble filling planes lately.
Other observations will differ. I've seen very few empty seats on the flights I've traveled to/from DTW on. Although in fairness, April/May is a slow travel period; I was on an ATL-LAS flight that was half-empty although standbys (presumably NRSA) filled it up.
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 2:21 am
  #156  
 
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Regarding CLE and UA, look for UA to announce soon not only is the CLE hub safe but look for some expansion. I talked with the airport director Satuday at Plane Pull and he says Jeff is coming in for a meeting in August as they have been re-evaluating the CLE situation.
The Cleveland area metro population is 2,881,937 number 18 in rank. In addition, within a 3 hour drive, 10,000,000 plus population. Just opened 2 new hospitals in Cleveland, with the Cleveland Clinic and Univesity Hospitals have world class medical facilites, thousands of people travel to the area each year from all over the world to use these facilities. In addition, a medical mart convention center is currently under construction so each years many medical conferences and conventions will be held.
Area is home to several colleges and universities and fortune 500 companieis which generates additional demand for air travel. Also, at present billions of dollars of development is taking place in the Cleveland area.
The current CO/UA hub there are only 35-40 mainline flights and these operate with very high load factors. Even if the hub was closed most of this service would be kept.
CLE serves as a alternative to EWR, IAD, and ORD in irregular operations cause usually by weather situations.
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 3:17 am
  #157  
 
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Originally Posted by james318
Exactly. The Detroit Metro area has grown SIGNIFICANTLY since even the people of population in the City proper (Somewhere in the 50s, I believe...) To try to say because the city of Detroit has less population now than it did 100 years ago means nothing about the metro area. Detroit is one of those cities where the suburbs boomed at the expense of the city, but the region itself has not suffered the same decline.
This is not technically true.

The Detroit MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area) as defined by the 2010 Census:

DetroitWarrenLivonia Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) includes the six counties of Lapeer, Livingston, Macomb, Oakland, St. Clair, and Wayne.

2010 - 4,296,250
2000 - 4,452,557

−3.51%

The Detroit CSA (Combined Statistical Area), which is slightly larger, as defined by the 2010 Census:

Includes the three additional counties of Genesee, Monroe, and Washtenaw, the metropolitan areas of Flint, Ann Arbor, and Monroe, plus the Detroit MSA

2010 - 5,218,852
2000 - 5,357,538

−2.59%

The CSA dropped from being the 8th largest to 11th largest in the country from 2000 to 2010. I brought the CSA into discussion because that's the only consistent ranking I could quickly find from 2000 to 2010. The Census did some tinkering in the MSA definitions in the past decade, so it makes it trickier to track through their rankings.

I'm a big Detroit supporter (especially over CVG) -- and I really like Detroit (the city, and the suburbs) but couldn't let that statement go because it's factually inaccurate.

While we're pulling Census numbers:

Cincinnati MSA

2010 - 2,130,151
2000 - 2,009,632
+6.00%

Cincinnati CSA:
2010 - 2,172,191
2000 - 2,050,175
+5.95%

The Cincinnati CSA is ranked as the 21st largest in 2010.

Cincinnati's Metro grew while Detroit's Metro shrank. That being said, if I was Delta and I was looking at trimming geographically duplicative operations post-merger, I'd rather have my hub in the 11th largest vs 21st largest city with a 3,046,661 more residents (2010 CSA numbers used in that analysis).
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 5:36 am
  #158  
 
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Originally Posted by Bagels

Other observations will differ. I've seen very few empty seats on the flights I've traveled to/from DTW on. Although in fairness, April/May is a slow travel period; I was on an ATL-LAS flight that was half-empty although standbys (presumably NRSA) filled it up.
One thing I know is that I get upgrade about 95% if I am lucky to get a mainline at DTW. In Cincinnati I get around 50%. In Atlanta, I get around 70%. I am not sure if that means anything but it seems that DTW is more of a connecting airport now than 5 years ago. CVG has become more of O&D airport which is exactly what Delta had in mind.

I know this is an off topic but it appears that there will be another announcement following up of the consolidation of Terminals. Even John Mok hinted two months ago about a low cost airline coming into CVG. Does anyone have details?
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 9:24 am
  #159  
 
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Originally Posted by Bagels
DTW serves too many small & midsized communities (in the Midwest/East) in which a RJ operation could not support. Especially not with $100+ oil.
Location, Location, Location. CVG sucks as a midwest hub. It was Delta's poor attempt at cobbling together a midwest hub.

CRJs have their place, I admit that. Personally my tolerance for the CRJ is around an hour. As a midwesterner, I am not going to hop on a CRJ for an 1 & 1/2 hour feed to CVG, ain't gonna do it.

MSP or DTW make much more sense for midwest feed. I'm sure that CVG is a nice airport, its location just does not make sense.[/QUOTE]
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 9:45 am
  #160  
 
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Originally Posted by syrwhizzy
I'm a big Detroit supporter (especially over CVG) -- and I really like Detroit (the city, and the suburbs) but couldn't let that statement go because it's factually inaccurate.
In context to the posting he was responding to, his statement was indeed accurate: although Detroit's population has steadily decreased from its 2M peak in the 1950s, the population of its surrounding suburbs has soared. Of course, the entire region's population abruptly shrank the last three years of the decade after seven years of growth. Whether or not some of those people will return, or if others will join them, will be depend on local production of the Big 3 (and the many other jobs they support).
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 10:15 am
  #161  
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Originally Posted by syrwhizzy

The CSA dropped from being the 8th largest to 11th largest in the country from 2000 to 2010. I brought the CSA into discussion because that's the only consistent ranking I could quickly find from 2000 to 2010. The Census did some tinkering in the MSA definitions in the past decade, so it makes it trickier to track through their rankings.
CSA's and MSA's don't really tell the whole story. What you want is the catchment area. DTW's catchment also includes southwest Ontario and Toledo/NE Ohio areas which you didn't mention at all. I can personally attest to seeing quite a few Ohio and Ontario plates in the Qwikpark lot. While the Toledo area has probably seen a bit of population loss, southwest Ontario has actually had some growth over the last decade. Overall, DTW's O&D has probably been buffered somewhat by the dramatic pulldowns at TOL, LAN, and MBS over the past decade (although FNT has also probably picked up quite a few pax from LAN, MBS catchments).
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 10:21 am
  #162  
 
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Originally Posted by Bagels
In context to the posting he was responding to, his statement was indeed accurate: although Detroit's population has steadily decreased from its 2M peak in the 1950s, the population of its surrounding suburbs has soared. Of course, the entire region's population abruptly shrank the last three years of the decade after seven years of growth. Whether or not some of those people will return, or if others will join them, will be depend on local production of the Big 3 (and the many other jobs they support).
I'll give you that "the population of the surrounding suburbs has soared". Here are the 2000 to 2010 numbers by county:

Detroit MSA

Lapeer +0.5%
Livingston +15.3%
Macomb +6.7%
Oakland +0.7
St. Clair -0.7
Wayne -11.7%

CSA:

Genesee -2.4%
Monroe +4.2%
Washtenaw +6.8%

Although, what the numbers don't show you where the rapid growth in the suburbs came from. Anecdotal evidence from people I know that live there seems to suggest everyone has just moved further away from the city and Wayne county. Overall, people are still leaving the metro, as shown by the population decrease of −3.51% (MSA) and −2.59% (CSA). So, while there may be explosive growth in the further outlying counties (that were very rural maybe 20-30 years ago) -- there's still a net exit of people from the area -- and the explosive growth in the suburbs noted by the poster does not mean the market is growing in size.

Originally Posted by james318
The Detroit Metro area has grown SIGNIFICANTLY since even the people of population in the City proper (Somewhere in the 50s, I believe...) To try to say because the city of Detroit has less population now than it did 100 years ago means nothing about the metro area. Detroit
That's inaccurate. The metro area declined too, albeit at a much lower rate that the city of Detroit.

Hopefully the trend will be reversed -- but, based on the facts, even though there's alot of activity in the outlying suburbs -- that activity has not made up for the overall population loss of the Detroit MSA and CSA.
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 10:22 am
  #163  
 
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Originally Posted by Rustbelt
One thing I know is that I get upgrade about 95% if I am lucky to get a mainline at DTW. In Cincinnati I get around 50%. In Atlanta, I get around 70%. I am not sure if that means anything but it seems that DTW is more of a connecting airport now than 5 years ago. CVG has become more of O&D airport which is exactly what Delta had in mind.
-The percentage of flights with F at DTW & CVG is about even (although the % of mainline flights is higher at DTW, but many RJ have F cabins as well).
-In another current thread, many posters -- including Silver Medallions -- comment that they choose to connect through CVG since it's a near-guaranteed upgrade. So yes, I'd agree that without a collective representation, each person's experience is irrelevant.
-And as for being "lucky" to get mainline at DTW... only 30/149 flights at CVG are mainline -- that's about 20%. And only 24/142 flights at CVG to places other than ATL are mainline.

And yes, DL has increased its focous on O/D at CVG - but the composition of DTW hasn't changed much in 5 years. Yet I don't see what this has to do with upgrades?
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 10:40 am
  #164  
 
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Originally Posted by syrwhizzy
I'll give you that "the population of the surrounding suburbs has soared". Here are the 2000 to 2010 numbers by county...
That's inaccurate. The metro area declined too, albeit at a much lower rate that the city of Detroit.
NYBanker argued that Detroit's long experienced a population decline, there's reason to expect this trend to reverse and thus the closure of DTW as a major hub is imminent. james318 pointed out that while Detroit's population has declined, the population within the suburbs has increased. To NYBanker's extent, james318's reply is accurate: while Detroit has experienced a steadily decrease in population since the 1950s, the region as a whole has gained population.

Yes, you're correct, the population of the region decreased in the last three years. But the region did gain population for the first seven years of last decade before free-falling as a derivative of the automotive collapse that resulted in two of the Big 3 going bankrupt and the other (Ford) undergoing a de facto bankruptcy. With the local automotive industry reorganizing and showing signs of recovery, there's little reason to believe the population free-fall will continue.

Of course, all that really matters is the O/D generated at DTW. As I've previously mentioned, O/D has gradually recovered to pre-2008 numbers at most business destinations.
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Old Jul 11, 2011, 10:41 am
  #165  
 
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Originally Posted by syrwhizzy
That's inaccurate. The metro area declined too, albeit at a much lower rate that the city of Detroit.

Hopefully the trend will be reversed -- but, based on the facts, even though there's alot of activity in the outlying suburbs -- that activity has not made up for the overall population loss of the Detroit MSA and CSA.
While I appreciate the additional facts, the actual post I was talking about was over the past 100 years. As posted earlier:

Originally Posted by NYBanker
Indeed, the population of Detroit is now lower than it was in 1910 - a negative compounded growth rate over 100 years! Not a lot on the horizon to make me think that trend is going to change any time soon.
I am not arguing whatsoever on the last 10 years, vs the last 100.
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