Upgrade Chances: The Definitive Thread

Old Dec 8, 11, 11:32 am
  #1591  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DLDM
Posts: 123
Originally Posted by Arkbulldog View Post
Matters what day, what time of day. Expert flyer can give you the info you desire. Too many variables.
I see. But in general, I'm guessing like a 5% chance when flying midday on a weekday?
Blueberry13 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:36 am
  #1592  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Wanting First. Buying First.
Programs: Lifetime Executive Diamond Platinum VIP with Braniff, Eastern, Midway, National & Pan Am
Posts: 5,804
Way too little information here to say. Most hub routes vary massively based on time, day of week, and directionality.

At varying levels of DL status from SM to PM I've both cleared at the window on DFW<>SLC and been stuck in Y at about #25 on the upgrade list at the gate...

Same reason that I would predict that a SM will almost always clear DFW>ATL on a Saturday, usually at the advance upgrade window, while a DM will be flying in coach on a Thursday PM DFW>ATL or a Monday AM ATL<DFW, etc...
Herb687 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:38 am
  #1593  
 
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: MIA, FLL
Programs: DL Gold, SkyClub, AA PLT, CO Silver, AS MVPGLD
Posts: 147
Try taking a look at the seat map. If the exit rows are all full then it is likely that there are several other medallions on the flight. If all the exit rows are empty then generally you're chance for an upgrade is probably good although flying to a hub any given weekday is rough stuff! As said above, many variables!
SPatrick83 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:39 am
  #1594  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Wanting First. Buying First.
Programs: Lifetime Executive Diamond Platinum VIP with Braniff, Eastern, Midway, National & Pan Am
Posts: 5,804
Originally Posted by Blueberry13 View Post
I see. But in general, I'm guessing like a 5% chance when flying midday on a weekday?
Which weekday? Which direction?

SLC>DFW directional is likely to be more elite heavy Sunday/Monday while DFW>SLC is likely to be more elite heavy Thursday/Friday.

(And flip those arround if you are talking AA and not DL. I've noticed this on ATL-DFW: POO DFW business pax fly AA out Sun/Mon back Thu/Fri while POO ATL business pax fly DL out Mon, back Thu/Fri)
Herb687 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:39 am
  #1595  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DLDM
Posts: 123
Originally Posted by Herb687 View Post
Way too little information here to say. Most hub routes vary massively based on time, day of week, and directionality.

At varying levels of DL status from SM to PM I've both cleared at the window on DFW<>SLC and been stuck in Y at about #25 on the upgrade list at the gate...

Same reason that I would predict that a SM will almost always clear DFW>ATL on a Saturday, usually at the advance upgrade window, while a DM will be flying in coach on a Thursday PM DFW>ATL or a Monday AM ATL<DFW, etc...
I see. Thanks a lot for your insight. It's interesting because I've seen FO's getting upgraded with a M fare and me stuck in Y with a L fare on SLC-DFW.
Blueberry13 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:40 am
  #1596  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: LAX/BOS/HKG/AMS/SFO...hmm, I need a life.
Programs: United1K, AA ExPlAAt, DL MM/Gold, Hilton Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 13,316
Originally Posted by Blueberry13 View Post
I see. Thanks a lot for your insight. It's interesting because I've seen FO's getting upgraded with a M fare and me stuck in Y with a L fare on SLC-DFW.
That should not be possible if you are a DM.
avidflyer is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:44 am
  #1597  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DLDM
Posts: 123
Originally Posted by avidflyer View Post
That should not be possible if you are a DM.
Maybe error by the GA? Believe it or not, it happened a few weeks ago and I know for sure because the FO who got the upgrade was my coworker.
Blueberry13 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:44 am
  #1598  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Wanting First. Buying First.
Programs: Lifetime Executive Diamond Platinum VIP with Braniff, Eastern, Midway, National & Pan Am
Posts: 5,804
Originally Posted by Blueberry13 View Post
I see. Thanks a lot for your insight. It's interesting because I've seen FO's getting upgraded with a M fare and me stuck in Y with a L fare on SLC-DFW.
I think the check the Y seat map suggestion is not a bad idea either to take a rough swag at how many elites might have booked already.

I do think that your friend might stand a decent chance on a Tue/Wed. The good news is that the CR9 has a pretty high % of F seats relative to total.
Herb687 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:46 am
  #1599  
 
Join Date: Nov 2001
Location: Wanting First. Buying First.
Programs: Lifetime Executive Diamond Platinum VIP with Braniff, Eastern, Midway, National & Pan Am
Posts: 5,804
Originally Posted by Blueberry13 View Post
Maybe error by the GA? Believe it or not, it happened a few weeks ago and I know for sure because the FO who got the upgrade was my coworker.
Any chance that the SM coworker bought their ticket and was upgraded at the window while the higher status pax bought the ticket after the processing window for SMs had already run?
Herb687 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 11:52 am
  #1600  
 
Join Date: Aug 2011
Location: Tokyo
Programs: DLDM
Posts: 123
Originally Posted by Herb687 View Post
Any chance that the SM coworker bought their ticket and was upgraded at the window while the higher status pax bought the ticket after the processing window for SMs had already run?
That could have been the reason...I do remember booking my flight at the last minute and being surprised to see L fares available.
Blueberry13 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 12:00 pm
  #1601  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: ATL
Programs: Delta DM, 4MM, SC, AmEx Reserve, UA Plat, SPG/Marriott Platinum, Hertz Gold
Posts: 2,383
My son is a (gifted) FO in school in Denver. He flies, occasionally, to SLC and has gotten upgraded on that route before. Not sure, if he's been upgraded out of SLC back to DEN.

Would really need more specific information to be able to say for sure. And, of course, by sure, I mean, to be able to speculate wildly what may or may not happen between now and the time of boarding assuming the UG doesn't clear at window, which it most likely will not!
jsmith50 is offline  
Old Dec 8, 11, 4:48 pm
  #1602  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: LAS
Programs: DL GM, SW A-List, Hyatt PL
Posts: 43
Smile What are my chances of getting upgraded?

Here is a link to the seat map for my flight on 12/20.Link

What does everybody think?
Scandalrag is offline  
Old Dec 9, 11, 7:57 am
  #1603  
 
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: ATL
Programs: Delta DM, 4MM, SC, AmEx Reserve, UA Plat, SPG/Marriott Platinum, Hertz Gold
Posts: 2,383
Originally Posted by Scandalrag View Post
Here is a link to the seat map for my flight on 12/20.Link

What does everybody think?
Seat maps are a horrible predictor of actual available seats and inventory. You really need someone with an EF membership that can go in and view the V inventory for your flights.
jsmith50 is offline  
Old Dec 9, 11, 8:01 am
  #1604  
FlyerTalk Evangelist
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: LAX/BOS/HKG/AMS/SFO...hmm, I need a life.
Programs: United1K, AA ExPlAAt, DL MM/Gold, Hilton Diamond, Avis First
Posts: 13,316
Originally Posted by jsmith50 View Post
Seat maps are a horrible predictor of actual available seats and inventory. You really need someone with an EF membership that can go in and view the V inventory for your flights.
+1. What is the flight # and date and I will look it up.
avidflyer is offline  
Old Dec 9, 11, 9:59 am
  #1605  
 
Join Date: Feb 2011
Location: LAX
Programs: UA:1k; MR: PLT; Hilton: Gold
Posts: 1,324
LAX - TPA, Chances upgrade?

I have to book LAX - TPA - LAX for work. I've done it for pleasure, and sitting in the back of the bus was miserable for the redeye LAX - TPA. I'm a GM and it would probably be on a sLUT fare leaving either 1/1/12 or 1/2/12. For those of you who do this often, what do you think my chances are (not really concerned as much with the return leg)?

Would booking it 1/1/12 give me a better shot since there are probably less business travel on that red-eye? Does it even matter since it's a non-stop red-eye and a lot of people will pay up to sit in F?

Thanks in advance!
jmanirish is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread
Search Engine: