What does that have to do with the claim that rollover is encouraging people to fly other airlines after they hit DM? That was the claim I was questioning.

I was avoiding the whole debate of PM's purposely holding short of DM, but since you had to go there in response to my simple question that was not about that issue, quite frankly I find it difficult to believe that "many"/"tons" of PM's are purposely avoiding DM. While some here on FT have said that is their approach, I do not mistake the intentions of some Flyertalkers as being representative of the typical Delta PM.

Sorry I misunderstood your question. Frankly, I was trying to be helpful and explained the DM "hold short" to someone who I thought did not understand
The "Typical" Delta flyer does not fly 125k MQM's in a year so in that respect FT is VERY representative of what many Plats are doing. I know I don't I need to post the threads titled "To DM or Not to DM" as proof many are holding short but clearly YOU are the final word on this subject so all the people here must be posting that they will hold short because they have nothing better to do.

....your welcome and happy holidays. This board is filled with nasty people on a hair trigger to fight. Good luck with that.

I just went past the 160K EQm mark, and will be close to the 175K mark when I return from Dubai next so I actually might have to make a quick weekend trip if I don't come up with a business trip on DL before the end of the year to hit the 175 mark for the extra bonus miles.

I love the rollover idea. While I am a Gold at the very least because of my Amex, it will be a toss up if I can hit Diamond next year with out the rollover. I can hit 75K a year with out issue, and if its a heavy international travel year 125k is doable. The roll over gives me the little extra padding so that I can keep DL Diamnond and CO Plat.

Before the Skyteam split I could easly keep CO & DL plat status just by crediting my flights in the last month or so to which ever I still needed the miles on to hit Plat. DL's marketing worked on me as I would have probably signed up with AA during the promo and spent the last 3 or 4 months on them instead I maxed out on DL to get the threshold bonus and rollovers MQM's.

Now if they would only offer the Diamonds a better upgrade cert for intl I would really be happy. Its becoming a hard sell to clients when you tell them the airfare is $3k (Still much better then $5-7K that a Biz class ticket cost) I would be happy if they just dropped it a single fare class below M.

I'm with you. I think the claim that DM (or even rollover, to a lesser extent) somehow discourages large numbers of people who previously logged 75k+ from flying more seems more than silly to me. Frankly, I think it is just a way to dress up the same old complaints about DM, PMUs, or Delta, in general, as some sort of deep analysis of the business.

Nobody, including some here that keep pounding this drum, has offered anything approaching a logical explanation as to how there is more incentive for someone to stop flying DL after 75k than there was last year, with the possible exception of someone that has very erratic earnings from year to year (i.e. 125k in year 1 and 25k in year 2). Maybe it makes a difference at the margins, but beyond that, I think people are making a mountain out of a molehill. But instead of anyone actually answering the question with a logical explanation, we have a handful of people pointing to maybe 5 folks on FT, claiming that they are holding short as some sort of substantive proof that this is a mass problem.

Oddly, most of those claiming this as proof are among the most vocal in claiming they are holding short. I'm holding short, therefore it is proof that many people are holding short! :rolleyes:

I just want to contribute the observation that one of my friends, who is not an FT'er but is a frequent-traveler consultant, has on his own decided to hold short of DM level. If he and his colleagues have come up with this on their own analysis, without reference to the extraordinary collective wisdom of FT, you can bet others have too.

Well at 240k so far this year I am not but can totally understand why someone would. How is a 50k head start on next years Plat status not an incentive to hold short? If there were some amazing reason to cross the line then I could understand your point but unless you believe there are that many DM's out there that it will impact your UG % as a plat then there is no reason to cross the line. I will turn it around on you: WHY use up the 50k head start on plat? What exactly is it about the DM program that is worth giving up 50k MQM's? :rolleyes:

That isn't my point, nor is it Beckles. I don't doubt that someone might hold short to get a head start next year. What I don't understand is how the incentive structure has dramatically changed compared to last year. If I fly 125k + per year, I have always had the choice to just hit hit Plat and then move on elsewhere for either better pricing, better schedule, or simply for another status. There was never really much incentive to fly DL past 75k, other than to leverage the benefits (upgrades, lounge access, priority boarding, etc) you earned for being Plat. Yeah, NW had SWUs, but even that was meager compared to the competition - were people really falling all over themselves to fly 125k miles to get 1/3 of the SWUs they got with UA?

With rollover, what has changed? With DM, what has changed? Who has ever argued that there is no reason to hold short of any status? I don't object to questions about whether one should or shouldn't hold short. What I object to is casting the assertion that there is now significantly more incentive to hold short than there was before as fact and that this is somehow a great failure of marketing.

The only way I see it really changing the dynamic would be for those folks that see a big drop-off year-over-year. Even then, though, I'm not sure it dramatically changes the incentive structure from simply having soft landings.

I am a PM that typically does ~120k per year on DL and have decided to stay PM. Among my friends and colleagues I only know 2 other PMs and they are also avoiding DM. Trust me there are tons of PMs like me...

The difference is that where last year and years past it was no big deal to go over now it IS a big deal to go over as you lose the MQM head start. The incentive is a LOSS to the FF'er whereas in years past nothing bad could come from going to 76k or 126k this year there is a penalty for doing it. You are forced to fly another carrier if you need to go anywhere. I would say that is both a major change this year and a major faux pas for DL.

This debate (here and other threads) amazes me. For as long as I have followed FlyerTalk I have heard groans around the first week of January about all those MQMs above 75K (100K before Platinum Lite) that were "wasted". There were even many suggestions that Delta allow the leftover to be used the next year... can you say rollover? So now Delta allows this and still there are complaints. Delta isn't forcing anyone to fly another carrier because of rollover. Those that are choosing to fly someone else to avoid hitting DM are trying to take advantage of having just less than 50K MQMs with which to start 2010. IOW, they are trying to maximize the rollover feature while complaining about.... THE ROLLOVER FEATURE.

To me this is no different than changing carriers to gain status on another airline BEFORE rollover was introduced. The difference now is the Delta is allowing you to roll the leftover into 2010 and these same defectors are now encouraged to fly DL come January 1. Delta is really stupid? I don't think so. I think they might indeed see some fall off in bookings from 124K MQM holders until Dec 31 but they are locked in as loyal DL customers for Jan 2010.

No feature from any airline is perfect for everyone. If that were the case then all airlines would have this same perfect feature and then it wouldn't be a feature anymore. All those people that are claiming to avoid DM qualification for this year are going to be adding to their MQMs that rolled over in early 2010. Sounds like DL didn't right. I no way is it a faux pas. Maybe one could call it a snafu, boo boo, oops but not a faux pax.

dean, rollover isn't going to be your problem. I think fewer flights is more of an issue that's creating fewer upgrade opportunities. Possibly that's why you're seeing more Elites on the ATL/LAX route? Anyway that's been what I've been seeing in my travels. Seems like Delta would reduce the number of flights on the routes with fewer pax. I could be wrong but that's what I'm thinking.

I fly ~120k per year (during the last 4 years) on DL, and will have rolling-over ~40k this year. I now have the following possibilities next year:

1. Fly 35k on DL and qualify for PM thanks to rollover in 2011, and fly 75k in CO and also be PM there (in 2010 by "comp" and 2011 by miles)
2. fly mostly DL to reach DM and have a sizable 2011 rollover (which means I can ask myself the same question again next fall)

Rollover encourages me towards option 1 and thoroughly test other waters...

I think many of the people who are complaining now about rollover (I am not one of them!) are different FT'ers than the one complaining earlier. But I don't have the time or desire to check up on that.

But I don't agree with your statement about pax being "locked in as loyal DL customers (on/after) Jan 2010." See the example below.

Yes, with the rollover feature, DL is encouraging loyal pax to test the waters with other airlines. And guess what? They might just like it enough to move more travel over there. I truly believe that a frequent flyer program should not be a disincentive for flying a particular airline, no matter which airline it is. The rollover feature does that with some of DL's best customers ("best" being defined as GM/PM/future DM).

The issue is really that it is all or nothing on crossing the threshold. BTW...count me as a guy who likes roll-over. If DL continues it next year (I am not banking on it but it would be nice) I will be DM for 2 full years based on this years travel. The problem is with people who used to make Plat and then maybe get to 85k..those folks will lose the 25k rollover. Again, I am NOT one of the people complaining but I can clearly see why this is an issue.

You are at 124k for the year..your boss tells you to go to HKG for a meeting. You now must either:
1. fly another carrier
2. fly DL and take your FF number out of the res and hope they don't do you a favor by crediting your account anyway
3. Cross the threshold and give up 50k mqm head start on 2010.

This is just NOT intuitive and is driving the wrong behaviour. In years past most people did not care if they went over 75k so DL was always going to be the carrier they book that HKG trip on. This year they are forced to chose between giving up 50k mqm or flying another carrier. It just makes no sense.

Fair enough, I've misread or misunderstood someone's post on FT a time or two myself ... but then
I would think you would maybe be a little more careful in reading my response. I did not say "typical Delta flyer", I said "typical Delta PM". I try and take some care in what I say and those words were chosen for a specific reason. As I said, I don't believe that the typical Delta PM posting on FT is necessarilly representative of the typical Delta PM in general. There are many Delta PM's (and FF's of all flavors) that reach that level without a second thought, they fly the airline that provides the most convenient service from their home airport (e.g., those in ATL, MEM, SLC, DTW, MSP, and many other airports in the Southeast and Midwest where DL has the most service), or with the best service to frequent destinations (e.g., those that may fly to ATL, MEM, SLC, DTW, or MSP a lot), or their company dictates carriers. Of course, even if you fly Delta you could "hold short" by crediting to another carrier, but I don't believe many DL PM's would resort to that especially since you would lose the benefit of your status on that flight (a minor concern though for Delta Connection flights with no FC).
I just read the entire To Diamond or Not to Diamond Thread and I don't think that proves at all that "many" or "tons" of PM's are changing their flying habits to avoid DM. The thread seems to be about 50/50 when you look at the FT'ers going each way (not the volume of posts, while that thread appears to be heavily in favor of holding short, when you look at the individual posters it seems that those advocating holding short have many more posts than those who simply state they are not holding short). I would also point out that a couple of folks who are not going for DM who posted to that thread said they are not doing MR's or "stretching" to reach DM, not that they are diverting travel away from DL.