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CDC extends no sail order to September 30.

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html

Here's the link to a PDF of the order which provides an insight into how serious the problem was on cruise ships.

Quote:

Cumulative CDC date from the period of March 1 to July 10, 2020, reveal a total of 2,973 COVID-19 of COVID-like illness cases on cruise ships in addition to 34 deaths. These data have also revealed a total of 99 outbreaks on 123 different cruise ships, meaning that 80% of ships within U.S. jurisdiction were affected by COVID-19 during this time frame. In addition, 9 ships still have ongoing or resolving COVID-19 outbreaks on board.

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html

What I find interesting is there are still 9 ships with active COVID-19 cases. I’d be interested to know which ships and at what level of reduced manning.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randyk47 (Post 32540867)

What I find interesting is there are still 9 ships with active COVID-19 cases

There was some interchange of crew weeks (or now months) ago for repatriation purposes but one would have thought that the disease would have burnt itself out. Then again, there appears to be evidence you can get COVID-19 more than once.

Quote:

Originally Posted by YVR Cockroach (Post 32541442)

If they can’t control infection/reinfection amongst the staff and crew how in the world do they think they can control it with hundreds to thousands of passengers on board? I am especially interested if any of the nine ships are ones with small or large residual staff and crew. Across all lines the repatriation rate runs from a low of 26% to a high of 76%. Some lines have obviously done better than others.

I think it's pretty safe to assume no North American cruises until 2021 (at least).

Quote:

Originally Posted by mahasamatman (Post 32541679)

I think it's pretty safe to assume no North American cruises until 2021 (at least).

And if we get a second fall surge it won’t be early 2021.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randyk47 (Post 32541764)

And if we get a second fall surge it won’t be early 2021.

I don't think there will be an identifiable second surge in the U.S. - the first surge won't end any time soon, and the country may not have even peaked yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mahasamatman (Post 32541889)

I don't think there will be an identifiable second surge in the U.S. - the first surge won't end any time soon, and the country may not have even peaked yet.

Exactly. If the current levels in the U.S. are still part of the first "wave". I'd hate to see what the oft-quoted second wave is going to look like.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mahasamatman (Post 32541889)

I don't think there will be an identifiable second surge in the U.S. - the first surge won't end any time soon, and the country may not have even peaked yet.

Quote:

Originally Posted by YVR Cockroach (Post 32542135)

Exactly. If the current levels in the U.S. are still part of the first "wave". I'd hate to see what the oft-quoted second wave is going to look like.

I was thinking more globally but I agree we haven’t peaked in the US yet. I also agree if there is a “second wave” on top of what we’re experiencing now it would be beyond devastating. In a bleak moment a few days ago my wife and I were talking about it being more of a case of when you were going to catch the virus than if you were going to catch it. We work from home, we haven’t been out for dinner since very early March, and other than the technician who did our annual HVAC maintenance last month nobody has been in our house other than us since February. I do go to grocery, liquor, and hardware stores but wear a mask and usually disposable gloves. Short of barricading ourselves in the house and only getting deliveries I’m not sure what else we can do right now.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randyk47 (Post 32542748)

Short of barricading ourselves in the house and only getting deliveries I’m not sure what else we can do right now.

Order and store away months of non-perishables so even the deliveries are minimized/eliminated. That may sound extreme but depends on what the COVID-19 situation is like (currently or in the projected future) where you are. I have concerns that despite having an excess food production (to domestic consumption) in N. Am., there will be supply constraints due to illnesses and no one to process/harvest/transport.

Quote:

Originally Posted by YVR Cockroach (Post 32543331)

We probably could go two to three weeks with the non-perishable food we have on hand. Might be some strange meals toward the end but we wouldn’t starve.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Randyk47 (Post 32543523)

We probably could go two to three weeks with the non-perishable food we have on hand. Might be some strange meals toward the end but we wouldn’t starve.

Stock up for a longer period - though 3 weeks is a good time and probably better than most other than for "preppers" - in the event that the current "pandemic" turns into a more deadly and widespread pidemic (for whatever reason).

Back to the original topic re: cruise ban. My very optimistic take is that a cruise ban will run until late April next year at the very earliest. before cruising can "safely" begin again. This is based on the assumption that 1) federal and key states will do nothing or if something, insufficient to curtail the virus assuming it rages with greater intensity as it is expected (by some), 2) current U.S. administration loses and concedes the election, 3) incoming new administration, if it can, immediately imposes a hard and widely-followedr/respected curfew of 3 months to stop the virus. I am not hopeful that an effective vaccine will be developed in that time.

Right now it's like Captain Zimmerman on SR111 flipping all the switches to attempt a reset. In this comparative case (vs reality/history) he takes a parachute and hands off command to the relief pilot, and bails.

The worry is the fall, flu and covid whatever you call the wave one or two. Flu with covid two respiratory infections easily passed between people and there will be no cruising from US this year and well into next I believe.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Badenoch (Post 32540430)

https://www.cdc.gov/quarantine/cruise/index.html

Here's the link to a PDF of the order which provides an insight into how serious the problem was on cruise ships.

Thanks a lot for posting this link. It is eye-opening reading about the noncompliance with CDC directives and failures of the cruise industry to promote the health and safety of their staff and clientele. All while they keep sending us promotional missives urging us to sail away on a fun-filled trip. Not!

Quote:

Originally Posted by 747FC (Post 32546774)

+1 (++++) Wow.

Cruise lines can't even sufficiently reduce COVID-19 onboard when it is just employees due to non-compliance, both corporate and employee (peanut gallery: where employee compliance should be in their best interest to get home relatively healthy and hopefully allowed to disembark). Perhaps there's something with the air circulation if all the other measures for longer than usual incubation periods isn't sufficient.

Some excerpts I noted

Quote:

The current scientific evidence suggests that cruise ships pose a greater risk of COVID-10 transmission than other settings. A recent article published in the Journal of Travel Medicine by Rocklöv et al. demonstrated that the Diamond Princess cruise ship experienced an onboard R0 (basic reproduction rate) for COVID-19 of 14.8 before ship-wide quarantine was enacted. This means that each case onboard the Diamond Princess transmitted COVID-19 to approximately 15 other people. This reproduction rate is approximately four times higher than the R0 of the original epicenter of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, which was 3.7, meaning that each person with COVID-19 in the early days of the outbreak in Wuhan transmitted the disease to approximately four other people.

…

Numerous challenges have arisen in detecting COVID-19 transmission onboard ships. Although examples can be given from most cruise lines, the experiences of four Royal Caribbean ships, the Vision of the Seas, Liberty of the Seas, Enchantment of the Seas, and Adventure of the Seas, particularly illustrate how an undetected COVID-19 outbreak may occur. These four ships reported no confirmed COVID-19 cases or COVID-like illness in crew for 28 days or longer. However, when crew subsequently disembarked in countries that required shoreside testing, confirmed cases of COVID-19 were detected in 55 crew members.

..

The difficulty to date of cruise ship operators to submit and adhere to appropriate NSO response plans during a time of limited operations, as well as ongoing concerns relating to non-compliance with disease prevention protocols and continued outbreaks of COVID-19 onboard cruise ships, highlight the need for further action prior to resuming passenger operations

I remember seeing cruisers state things like "Not fair! Onerous and unreasonable demands for disembarking crew! Bad rap and they have no basis for imposing such harsh restrictions on cruise lines!". It seems to me that the CDC and infectious disease academics have studied the results, been paying attention, and were not ignoring the industry due to pressing non-cruise pandemic issues. They had prior relations and experience with cruise lines across multiple government agencies related to communicable diseases, food safety, and environmental regulations. The customer viewpoint at that time + current advertising just goes to show how the PR engine usually successfully separates the front of the house from the back of the house business details.