Evaluate my position / strategy (or lack thereof)
 

[Mod note: This thread/post moved from the flame-free Information Desk forum. Thanks for contributing respectful responses.]

Hey FT,

I'm not a new member, but I figured this was a broad enough topic that this was the place to put it. I got into this game about 4 years ago, almost by accident, with the 75K AAdvantage card offer. I had had an mtvU card (Now Citi Forward) for 2 years, and wanted to get that offer, and I did. For a long time, that was it. Then I got the Chase Freedom. Then began the slippery slope into this game. My credit history is about 8 years at this point. I'm 26. Here is the history of my card apps and closures:

05/2008 - Citi Forwad (was mtvU) (free)
10/2010 - Citi Advantage ($95)
05/2010 - Chase Freedom (free)
11/2010 - Chase Continental (converted CL to Southwest, closed)
10/2011 - Citi Premiere (free)
02/2012 - AMEX PRG (cancelled 1/2013)
02/2012 - Barclay's US Airways ($95)
02/2012 - Chase United MPE ($95)
02/2012 - Chase Southwest ($69)
08/2012 - AMEX SPG ($65)
09/2012 - Barlcay's NFL Card (free)
03/2013 - Citi Prestige ($175)
03/2013 - AMEX Hilton (free)
03/2013 - CSP ($95)

Which means, not including retention offers, I have an annual potential outlay of: $689 in credit card fees. Now, subtract out guaranteed annual value:

Chase United ($25 bag fee each way x2) = -$100
Citi Prestige $200 statement credit = -$200
Chase Southwest annual mileage bonus = -$50
Barclay's US Airways annual mileage bonus = -$100

Those are rounded numbers, but call it $450 reimbursed worst case scenario. Citi recon has yet to make me pay for my AA card, or more than adequately made up for it (5 miles / $1 capped at $5000/25K miles over 6 months, etc). In my opinion, I essentially only pay for the SPG and CSP right now. I think most people consider those cards to be of enough value to hold, given the ability to transfer, bonus categories, annual bonus, and no FTF.

As you can see, I haven't had many applications in a while. After 7 in 2012, I had 3 in 2013, and none for almost 9 months. This is because:

• I was considering I might have a mortgage in the next 12 months, but that now seems very unlikely. Earliest I'd possibly think a mortgage app could fall would be Summer 2015
• I still consider my credit young (~8 years, but only one open card is more than 4 years old). My AAoA is fairly low.
• I was laid off in October, and had no income until December. I now have a solid job, again.
• I wasn't sure what to hold, what (if anything) to cancel, and what to try for.

My CreditKarma score is 762, and my CreditSesame score is 789. My utilization has hovered between 2% and 7% for the last 18 months. Right now I have on card (United, $5K limit) with a 0% offer through 9/14, with about 35% utilization. I'm paying that down $250/mo, so that'll be gone soon (6 months).

If I had to pick a card to close, it would be the Southwest card, in case that information is helpful.

Also, my fiance (21, 2 years credit history, 1 open card, AU on 4 of mine, 765 CreditKarma), has expressed willingness to get a card or two, if she can. It became real to her when I told her we'd be wrapping up our honeymoon with 3 nights in the Grand Club room at the Grand Hyatt Kauai.

So, this has been long, and if you're this far, I commend you. I'm looking for suggestions, recommendations, and advice on the next 6 months, given current offers and point valuations. At that point, I'll reevaluate if I think a mortgage may be on the horizon.

Thanks everyone!

Sounds like you are set up pretty well. I'm newer to the game then you but these tips are from me scouring thepointsguy boarding area blogs and the upgrd forums and millionmilesecrets over the last few weeks.

The biggest things I've seen are

1. Open a Chase Saphire card. Seems to be best points transfer and comperable to Amex or SPG
2. IF you want to get real creative request an EIN Number from the IRS and apply for a Chase Inc business card as well to double the sign up bonus or do one each.
3. Review some of the manufactured spending tips on those cards to max the bonus spending, ie* Buying gift cards, using for everyday spend. Using Bluebird to load pre paid cards onto a checking account, using amazon payments or any other creative method to get close to 100k in mileage over the next year for another amazing trip. The inc business card is especially interesting as you get 5X at office supply stores and I hear of people buying Amex cards at officemax etc for solid points.

Hope this was helpful. I didn't post any links as Im not sure the forum allows it but all of the blogs I mentioned were super helpful

Thanks for replying. I do hold a CSP (Chase Sapphire Preferred). I forgot to mention I did try for an Ink Bold early this year, and Chase was a no go.

I MS with Amazon payments, and that's the extent of the time/desire I have, for now.

I have Hilton Gold status, and am debating doing the Diamond challenge in June to coincide with a stay at the Grand Hyatt Kauai. At that point, I'd also apply for the Chase Hyatt card for the 2 suite nights.

We've got a whole forum of folks who live and breathe this stuff far more than those of us who hang around here. :) I'll move this thread over there so the experts can give further insight.

jackal
Moderator, Information Desk

There is a lot going on in your post. :D

Few things that jump to mind immediately:

• You should (probably) be able to get another USAirways card at this point and it's unclear when that card is going away
• Regardless the annual miles bonus, Barclays often gives out an annual fee waiver anyway, if you want to continue to hold the one you have
• SPG and CSP cards are great - but are YOU going to get enough value to pay the annual fee? Not theoretically - the actual person roki (and especially the SPG, since you can get it once a year, will you get more than 30k value this year compared to cancel and wait to sign up again?)
• Are there other hotel cards you should be considering? You can do a lot with a Club Carlson or IHG signup
• No AA cards? Might want to grab one now to get the clock started for your next one...
• The MPE Business version also has first bag free and a healthy signup bonus

Thanks for the reply! I know it was a long post. :p

I'm a bit wary with Barclays, because when I got the NFL card, the rep was really stressing that I was right on the cusp of denial. I guess I forget that that was 14 months ago :P I could give that a go. I always thought Barclays was a no-go on retention offers because of the annual bonus. Guess I missed that memo! As far as the card going away, I got this email recently from Barclays about the US Air card:

I'm thinking that if I am able to get a second card, I'll probably end up canceling it around month 11. Who knows what the mileage programs will look like 11 months from now, though.

The way I see it for the CSP, it allows me to take my Freedom points (which I generally try max out) and send them to United. Realistically, I usually get about 20K points ($4K @ 5x) on my Freedom. 20K points is $200 cash, but I value United miles at ~$0.02, even with the devaluation. That's a bump of $200 in value over straight cash having a CSP/Freedom combo, which more than covers the AF in my opinion. The Starwood card is my AP card, for now. I haven't actually done much with Starwood, but that one I don't have as strong an argument for paying for. I do save a solid amount annually with their "Offers for you" -- ~$140 in 2013, but that would be available on a free card as well. I guess I'm going to hold it till August '14 when the AF hits and reevaluate it then.

As for Hotels, yes, I've thought about looking into other programs. My fiance and I don't have any travel booked past 2014, and 2014 lodging is already booked. Most of our travel is to visit friends and family, and we have accommodations with them. I've been looking at Club Carlson because I have nothing with US. Bank, but I'm scared of getting forced into the lower tier after application.

I have on AA card from 2010, my second oldest card. I definitely plan to put in another app in this mini AoR I'm trying to figure out.

Chase denied my Ink Bold app in 5/13, so again, I'm way on the biz apps, especially with Chase. Maybe I just didn't know the magic words to say!

I appreciate the advice so far! Thanks!

At this point, I'm leaning towards a 3-card app:

Citi AA
Barclay's US Air
US Bank Club Carlson

I've got a ~$5K purchase coming up in February, so that + MS should make this pretty easy. From reading the Club Carlson thread, it seems like lots of people recommend freezing IDA/ARS. Given that I have no apps in 9 months, and only 5 in the last 24 months, is that really a necessary step? I'm a little nervous about sending all that personal data in one envelope. Seems like a really bad idea. 99.9% chance nothing goes wrong, but if it did....ugh.

Unless you need status or are grinding out some points via MS, you really don't need SPG.

Personally I'd close both the southwest and united cards, and reapply later this year to get the bonuses again.

You never close Chase cards until you submit an app for another one...that way you can use it as a bargaining chip / offer to close and move credit. When the bank doesn't have to extend you any more credit than you already have, there's no risk to them. Also, Chase does not allow you to double-dip. The United card gives me plenty of value with the baggage fee waiver (2 pax roundtrip 2x/year = $200 in baggage waiver). The SW is the card I'd ditch, though.

I'm holding the SW until I put an app in for Hyatt, if I end up doing that. Otherwise, I'll have to see what else Chase offers I'm interested in when the time comes.

I'm always delighted to help a fellow FT-er set on a downward spiral (or slippery slope as you put it). Want my opinon? You're overthinking it. Your last application was a year ago, your score is great, unless there are some other factors in play that we don't know, you can get any credit card(s) you want. Forget what Barclay or Chase told you a year ago.

Since you don't seem to have a firm understanding of what it is you want, have your fiancee sign up for the same 3 cards you do (if you want only 3, hint, hint). It can be a great strategy going into the future, too. And listen to MTDR; you really spend too much money on annual fees and in some cases delay the chance of re-applying for the same card and getting the bonus again.

+1

A lot of ideas that are good for many people become needlessly established as 'always' and 'never' rules in these threads. My own: never throw away money (annual fees that do not return at least an equal value to the account holder in the real world). Maybe it's good for the OP too, especially if he's only applying every year or so.

The exact timing to get the same bonus a second time on a Chase card varies, but it has definitely been done.

I guess it's a symptom of my generally cautious nature, but I think I'd always rather say "I wish I had tried applying for more cards..." than "I wish I hadn't applied for that many cards." Especially at this stage in my life ;)

I'm still thinking Club Carlson, US Air, and AAdvantage for me. Maybe AA / US for the fiance. I'm not sure we could really handle the minimum spend for more cards, unless we do some hardcore MS. Then, in about 5 months, see if the fiance and I can both diamond challenge (will Hyatt allow this?) and both put in Hyatt apps.

Yep the only reason I was able to churn the chase swa card repeatedly and harvest the points was to open-->close-->wait--> repeat cycle (or lather rinse and repeat if you prefer).

Agree with others you are losing out on the benefit of churn. As it relates to bargaining: transfer the CL to another card of chase (preferably with no AF), before closing it. Then, when you open a new account with chase, if needed, you can re-capture some of that CL.

Also as it relates to ROI wrt AF, you should think of it per card. Then decide if the AF is worth it. For instance the bag fee waiver is useful only if you actually plan to utilize it. No point in keeping it around, just in case you need.

This last month has been really busy for me, and this has sadly taken a back seat to more pressing issues. I still want to get the Club Carlson card (first priority), and then another AA and US Airways card. in ~3 months, I'll try to Diamond challenge and get the Hyatt card.

However, I was playing around on the Amex site today, and it appears I've hit the time required for my fee-free Amex Hilton to be eligible for the upgrade to the Surpass. 50K Hilton points for 3K spend (super easy with a wedding coming up) in 3 months. This will NOT be a hard pull, if I do this, right? Everything I see seems like that's the case, but it does say "If approved, you will receive your new Card(s) within 7 days."

I am unsure about your AMEX Hilton-->Surpass question, but since you are back at it, I would head over and apply for the 100k Citi AA offer before it expires with your fiance. 200k for the both of you could go a long way!

I also saw in your initial post that you were toying with the option of getting the Hyatt card while on the Diamond Challenge to get two free suite nights. Unfortunately, they do not do the free suite nights if you get the CC while a Diamond anymore. However, you mentioned three nights, so if you pay for one night (or do cash+points), add a diamond suite upgrade to that night, and contact the hotel about the other two nights/that it's your honeymoon, you will probably be fine to stay in that suite for the remaining two nights. Make sure you contact the hotel directly after you apply a diamond upgrade, GP will, at that point, have nothing to do with the remaining reservation.