The WHO now recommends lifting travel bans.
#46
Join Date: Dec 2009
Programs: Hilton Diamond Hyatt Globalist
Posts: 1,180
They're happy for now, but once they see the western world has moved on and folks can freely travel abroad and return home without a lengthy and expensive quarantine, their attitudes might change. Surely they want to be able to travel abroad for vacation or to visit family and friends. And they want family and friends living abroad to be able to visit them.
China's gonna China, but Japan and Taiwan are democracies. The people living there might eventually get fed up with the restrictions and make their opinions known in the voting booth if the policies don't change.
China's gonna China, but Japan and Taiwan are democracies. The people living there might eventually get fed up with the restrictions and make their opinions known in the voting booth if the policies don't change.
#47
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,638
True. As long as cases were low the chances of them opening were slim but now that Japan has spiked I have a feeling they'll start to loosen up once it comes back down. Purely my opinion of course but you can't close down indefinitely. Even browsing some of the social media sites public opinion is starting to change. I've seen a lot of Koreans that are not pleased that they still have to wear a mask everywhere. Really hoping this is the year places start to open. Maybe the WHO coming out will nudge them but time will tell.
Unfortunately I don't see Taiwan reopening anytime soon.
#48
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC 75k, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 1,154
They're happy for now, but once they see the western world has moved on and folks can freely travel abroad and return home without a lengthy and expensive quarantine, their attitudes might change. Surely they want to be able to travel abroad for vacation or to visit family and friends. And they want family and friends living abroad to be able to visit them.
China's gonna China, but Japan and Taiwan are democracies. The people living there might eventually get fed up with the restrictions and make their opinions known in the voting booth if the policies don't change.
China's gonna China, but Japan and Taiwan are democracies. The people living there might eventually get fed up with the restrictions and make their opinions known in the voting booth if the policies don't change.
#49
Join Date: Aug 2017
Posts: 1,610
Yeah only 23% might hold passports but aren't those 23% the influential rich people. Surely the wealthy influential japanese/koreans want to travel more (and not everyone is super-wealthy to fly private / escape rules with impunity, but is still rich enough to weild some influence in upper class circles). Surely the rulemaking folks in these countries are itching for a european vacation soon?
#50
Join Date: Jun 2007
Posts: 4,638
I'm mainly waiting for Singapore and Thailand to drop all testing on arrival completely. I suppose I'll be waiting a while
#51
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: YYZ
Programs: AC 75k, Marriott Titanium
Posts: 1,154
Yeah only 23% might hold passports but aren't those 23% the influential rich people. Surely the wealthy influential japanese/koreans want to travel more (and not everyone is super-wealthy to fly private / escape rules with impunity, but is still rich enough to weild some influence in upper class circles). Surely the rulemaking folks in these countries are itching for a european vacation soon?
Last edited by m.y; Jan 25, 2022 at 11:58 am
#52
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: CPT
Posts: 70
A new study by John Hopkins University this month confirms once again that lockdowns simply don't work and don't reduce real covid fatalities.
Amazing how some still are desperate to preserve them. To what (positive) end?? Fear? Opportunity for control (i.e. Australia and Austria)?
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/fi...-Mortality.pdf
Amazing how some still are desperate to preserve them. To what (positive) end?? Fear? Opportunity for control (i.e. Australia and Austria)?
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/fi...-Mortality.pdf
#53
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: PDX, OGG or between the two
Programs: AS 75K
Posts: 2,863
A new study by John Hopkins University this month confirms once again that lockdowns simply don't work and don't reduce real covid fatalities.
Amazing how some still are desperate to preserve them. To what (positive) end?? Fear? Opportunity for control (i.e. Australia and Austria)?
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/fi...-Mortality.pdf
Amazing how some still are desperate to preserve them. To what (positive) end?? Fear? Opportunity for control (i.e. Australia and Austria)?
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/fi...-Mortality.pdf
I'd say fear and control are what run a good portion of our country. Tyrants want to control..... and, for some reason I've never been able to figure out, some people just love to have something to be scared of. The US is so safe these days that it's as if we've run out of problems. So we fabricate them. I laugh at the thought of our weak society facing real problems like our grandparents did. If you can't solve it with an app a good portion of us would be dead.
#55
Join Date: Aug 2012
Posts: 6,752
I recall about 5 years ago we did some analysis on the composition of China’s annual GDP YOY growth and found it a little alarming that construction accounted for, if I recall, about 45% of it? Compare that to the US GDP where construction is only about 5%? Some of the metrics, which were still accelerating, were quite extraordinary, e.g., available office square footage per capita, amount of multiple investment properties per capita.
In my view, the PRC views the BRI twofold. One, given the saturation of construction—the many infamous large ghost towns—it makes sense to try to replicate this early low hanging fruit growth in new markets, i.e., turn underdeveloped nations into China’s China. Two, at the same time, it’s a subtle and under the radar tool to extend China’s soft power and influence under the guise of “helping poorer nations” build.
The transformation from an emerging market economy overly reliant on construction production into one similar to ours in the West where production is primarily consumer driven—by professional services especially—will likely be a long drawn process fraught with some risks; these risks can be abated somewhat by replicating exporting what they do well—construction—while weaning off of construction domestically as they replace it with a primarily consumer economy similar to ours.
In my view, it’s a bubble and specifically a RE bubble of epic proportions. Common sense tells me that if most PRC citizens’ investments are 2nd and 3rd rental properties, whom are you going to rent to? At this point, there just simply isn’t enough cash flow (demand) to support all of the resources—that must be repaid—that have gone into building these things. The only solution to avert, in my estimation, a complete meltdown is to turn their economy into one that’s highly scalable; hence their emphasis on tech based production (semis, 5G, biotech, etc.…); or, mass immigration of highly skilled labor, which for many reasons likely will never be feasible or practical for them.
Fast forward to today, given their meteoric progress—we’ve never before seen this size of a population with this kind of velocity of rising income--which has been both remarkable and breathtaking, I think they’re about ˝ way through the transformation? And, if history is our guide, China has never really cared all that much about conquest or multiculturalism, and once they’ve finished this transition and, which is their hope, averted the bubble’s deflation with a soft landing, I don’t they place any value on Westerners' general tourism.
In my view, the PRC views the BRI twofold. One, given the saturation of construction—the many infamous large ghost towns—it makes sense to try to replicate this early low hanging fruit growth in new markets, i.e., turn underdeveloped nations into China’s China. Two, at the same time, it’s a subtle and under the radar tool to extend China’s soft power and influence under the guise of “helping poorer nations” build.
The transformation from an emerging market economy overly reliant on construction production into one similar to ours in the West where production is primarily consumer driven—by professional services especially—will likely be a long drawn process fraught with some risks; these risks can be abated somewhat by replicating exporting what they do well—construction—while weaning off of construction domestically as they replace it with a primarily consumer economy similar to ours.
In my view, it’s a bubble and specifically a RE bubble of epic proportions. Common sense tells me that if most PRC citizens’ investments are 2nd and 3rd rental properties, whom are you going to rent to? At this point, there just simply isn’t enough cash flow (demand) to support all of the resources—that must be repaid—that have gone into building these things. The only solution to avert, in my estimation, a complete meltdown is to turn their economy into one that’s highly scalable; hence their emphasis on tech based production (semis, 5G, biotech, etc.…); or, mass immigration of highly skilled labor, which for many reasons likely will never be feasible or practical for them.
Fast forward to today, given their meteoric progress—we’ve never before seen this size of a population with this kind of velocity of rising income--which has been both remarkable and breathtaking, I think they’re about ˝ way through the transformation? And, if history is our guide, China has never really cared all that much about conquest or multiculturalism, and once they’ve finished this transition and, which is their hope, averted the bubble’s deflation with a soft landing, I don’t they place any value on Westerners' general tourism.
#56
A new study by John Hopkins University this month confirms once again that lockdowns simply don't work and don't reduce real covid fatalities.
Amazing how some still are desperate to preserve them. To what (positive) end?? Fear? Opportunity for control (i.e. Australia and Austria)?
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/fi...-Mortality.pdf
Amazing how some still are desperate to preserve them. To what (positive) end?? Fear? Opportunity for control (i.e. Australia and Austria)?
https://sites.krieger.jhu.edu/iae/fi...-Mortality.pdf
- it includes only Europe and US, all other countries are excluded
- A lockdown is defined as at least one (1) NPI mandated that restrict people possibilities. So locations which only closes down bars and nightclubs, and nothing else, are called "being in lockdown".
So basically this "study" excludes 75% of the world and compares apple to suspension bridge. And the author are aware because somewhere in the study, this is found:
Because of the heterogeneity in NPIs across studies, it is difficult to draw strong conclusions based on the studies of multiple specific measures. We find no evidence that lockdowns, school closures, border closures, and limiting gatherings have had a noticeable effect on COVID-19 mortality. There is some evidence that business closures reduce COVID-19 mortality, but the variation in estimates is large and the effect seems related to closing bars.
#57
Join Date: Aug 2016
Location: CPT
Posts: 70
Something tells me I won't find this on the front page of my local newspaper. Or, any news source for that matter.
I'd say fear and control are what run a good portion of our country. Tyrants want to control..... and, for some reason I've never been able to figure out, some people just love to have something to be scared of. The US is so safe these days that it's as if we've run out of problems. So we fabricate them. I laugh at the thought of our weak society facing real problems like our grandparents did. If you can't solve it with an app a good portion of us would be dead.
I'd say fear and control are what run a good portion of our country. Tyrants want to control..... and, for some reason I've never been able to figure out, some people just love to have something to be scared of. The US is so safe these days that it's as if we've run out of problems. So we fabricate them. I laugh at the thought of our weak society facing real problems like our grandparents did. If you can't solve it with an app a good portion of us would be dead.
In the EU and US we still see some trying to justify, for reasons you suggest. Politicians (and much of the panic-media) hate to admit they were wrong.
#59
Community Director
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Norwich, UK
Programs: A3*G, BA Gold, BD Gold (in memoriam), IHG Diamond Ambassador
Posts: 8,476
Thread closed for mod review.