kiwifrequentflyer

That is pretty much what is happening and what has been announced. APAC countries aren't exactly slouching on vaccine rollout but once every adult has been given the *opportunity* to take the vaccine: then APAC countries will reopen to other countries. New Zealand intends to have this done by the end of the year, although will likely open in tandem with Australia mid next year would be my guess. Prior to that, more bubbles will probably open in late Q3/Q4 between APAC countries with the caveat being you need a vaccination to be let in.

If it delays reopening our countries borders widely to be a year behind the USA/Europe then so be it, really. To preserve our normalcy I think it's a sacrifice most are willing to make. I am not sure why some people in the USA & Europe are calling us isolationist, for simply delaying our opening to them for one year. This isn't a permanent strategy.

behuman

I love and respect New Zealand (and Australia), but you actually are isolationist and even not being permanent it might destroy your economy and put you behind a couple of decades. At the end of the day all is a question if you can afford it. For one is sure: Europe will be better off and the death toll is just a sad fact of life and part of the evolution of humanity.

kiwifrequentflyer

You say that one extra year will set us behind by a couple of decades but where is your economic modeling to prove that this is true? All I hear is people quoting some vague opinion from a Swedish person who owns a tourism business in New Zealand that obviously will want the borders to reopen, rather than actual facts.
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If there was actual modeling to suggest that, it would have made national news.

Instead what HAS made national news is modeling suggests that our economy is going to be in a holding pattern, not growing much but still fine, and then see a bounce back once tourism starts up again. There is nothing to suggest we are going to be "behind" the USA or Europe, and especially not by "decades."

the810

I'm in Europe and I've been doing most of that since May 2020. The initial lockdown in the spring 2020 was tough as I was unprepared but since then, I've managed to travel around in a way that allows me fairly normal life. There are some restrictions but they are mild (no clubs, very limited cinema options, restaurants closing earlier).

For the last 7 months, I ate at restaurants almost every day, including at buffets, I've been enjoying bars, travelling around the country without any restrictions, staying at hotels and I haven't wore mask once. I've been on a minicruise and I plan another one in a few weeks. Are the restrictions tougher than in NZ? A little. But on the other hand, I can be sure this is going to last, unlike in NZ where any random case appearing somewhere will lead to harsh lockdown.

behuman

Your socialist (NZ) government might hide you something .

I sincerely wish you are right, but Swiss expats in Australia and New Zealand speak about luxury lodges (among the most expensive in the world) being empty, grapes rotting on the wines and investments suspended. This of course does not affect all sectors. Especially the NZ way is a luxury not all countries can afford.
From a tourism point of view I see the danger of:
1. Other destinations being able to invest more.
2. Other destinations being able to take the customers having previously traveled to your place.
3. The whole sector having to restructure its pricing (domestic / trans Tasman market)

You can not put an economy in a "holding pattern", but of course I hope it will work out as you write and that I am completely wrong. I love especially New Zealand, but will now more focus on South America, less safety and more risk, but being vaccinated it is maneagable (and cheaper with similar if not better quality).

To return OT: Travel will feel normal again when we accept that life is dangerous and that there will never be zero Covid cases. Just a manaeagble number and reasonable precautions taken - no hysteria anymore. Europe is pretty good on this way.

kiwifrequentflyer

Luxury lodges visited by rich Americans are empty, but in return our sports stadiums are packed with thousands of fans and we were for a time one of the only countries in the world with movie theatres open, are one of the only countries in the world that can run a full capacity Broadway/West End show and while seasonal workers have been hard to find and I know some vineyards struggled, demand and exports for our wine increased, not decreased.

I am happy for the thread to return to its original purpose and will stop posting now. I just want to set the record straight. Overall our economy has a strong outlook, not a weak one and that isn't because our "socialist" government that's ranked the least corrupt in the world, is hiding something from us: https://internationalbanker.com/fina...r-new-zealand/

And with that I am out.

stimpy

Let me defend our Goldorak a bit by first saying that English is not his first language, and I doubt he was using the word "sad" in a Trumpian way. Perhaps he is sad in part that he can't visit APAC nations. And perhaps he is right that it is sad for some sectors of APAC economies. But I agree with you that we should not assume that the entire NZ economy will be in ruins. Ditto for Oz. Maybe it will be harder on Thailand, Vietnam, and others. Especially to the average low income workers in those nations. All this will be studied for many years to come and I can be patient to wait and see what happens with the different strategies around the world.

Goldorak

Thank you Stimpy . This is exactly what I meant. There was certainly nothing rude or condescendant in my post.

travelinmanS

The zero case strategy will work for rich countries that can support themselves like China, OZ, Singapore and NZ. What I can’t understand is why other APAC nations that rely on tourism and aren’t economic juggernauts seem to want to follow this same zero case path. Just because it works for Beijing doesn’t mean it is the best choice for Bangkok or Bali. I can’t imagine the economic devastation to those tourism dependent southeast Asian countries, but they all seem to have chosen the zero cases path. Will be interesting to see how they fare in a year or two.

stimpy

Tourism is in terrible shape all over the world. Even in the US with the TSA checking 1.8 million flyers yesterday, the tourism business is still in terrible shape. But it is the knock-on effect of the loss of tourism that impacts those more fragile APAC nations in a much deeper way than NZ or OZ or SG. They can still sell rice and other commodities, but they will be limping along for quite a while til other parts of the economy recover.

halls120

Travel will feel "normal" when I don't have to get a PCR test to get on an airplane or cross a border, and when I can sit down at a restaurant and enjoy a meal without being worried about whether the person sitting next to me is infected because he/she refuses to get vaccinated.

Ford Fairlane

Apologies if someone else has already said something to this effect; I'm just seeing this thread for the first time and am not inclined to read through all 15 prior pages.

Travel will never feel normal to me. That's why I love it so much. To get away from what is my "normal".

747-800i

Yea, Americans can do that in Florida and other sane states.

kiwifrequentflyer

Please don't try to pretend that life is and has been the same in America. In New Zealand life goes on whether you are in a vulnerable group or not, you do literally everything, we had Broadway style shows and sports games in the middle of a pandemic and no one was scared at all. No one is afraid they will get covid, because they know they won't. We have lived through most of this pandemic as though it was 2019.
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Here, your only hint it isn't 2019 is if you go to the airport and see most of the international terminal closed. When you live in 2019 land, its very difficult to want to be in anything else, to be frank. So why go overseas?

The truth is, for us, it would be worse to travel overseas, even if it meant being somewhere new, because even being somewhere new just isn't as good, if it means you can't live like it is 2019. Until we can travel overseas and it have the same quality of life as 2019 then it won't feel normal, because 2019 land is still our normal, and very few will want to go, bar seeing family. There is very little appetite for holidays in AUS/NZ. The threshold of feeling "normal" here is going to be very different to Europe/America.

​I am hopeful though that vaccines will move more of the world closer towards 2019 so that it won't feel as strange/foreign and it will be accepted by Kiwis and Aussies as a compromise.
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747-800i

Have you left NZ in the last year? Have you been to FL recently? I have, so if you haven't you really don't know what you're talking about. FL is 100% open with no masks, it's 2019 in Florida.