lobo411

The WHO also says that no one younger than 65+ should be vaccinated anywhere in the world, and that First World nations should be donating all of their vaccine supplies to the Third World.

I wouldn't hold my breath on anyone following WHO advice.

evergrn

You may be right, but this seems to me like a pessimistic forecast.
Talking about America, 3/4 of Americans being vaccinated within the next 8-9 months and the vaccine working out as desired are both very possible scenarios. May not happen, but definitely possible.
Similar thing could be achieved in a number of other countries, although certainly there will be many parts of the world that will lag behind.
Once this happens, the current CDC guideline for international travel should be eased/lifted for select many destinations.
Even before herd immunity is reached, the guideline may be eased if we see Covid slow down significantly in northern hemisphere by this summer.
I'd like to believe there's a decent chance that non-essential international travel will be possible for some destinations this summer, and probable to Canada and much of Europe/Asia by this time next year.

ajGoes

That's incorrect. Here's what the WHO actually says:
"WHO believes that everyone, everywhere who could benefit from safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines should have access as quickly as possible, starting with those at highest risk of serious disease or death.​​​​​​"

And:
"WHO advises that once a vaccine(s) is shown to be safe and effective, and authorized for use, all countries receive doses in proportion to their population size, albeit initially in reduced quantities."

lhrsfo

The narrative here in the UK has changed subtly but markedly over the last few weeks. It was along the lines of we'll vaccinate everyone as quickly as possible and, as soon as the vulnerable are vaccinated (ie over 55s and others with conditions which make them vulnerable) in March, then things will open up largely. And then they added that everyone over 18 who wants one should be done by September and the plan was to repeal all the restrictions in their entirety. And now, opening up largely has changed into very tight restrictions being eased somewhat and removing all the restrictions in their entirety has disappeared. There's talk about potential new strains which are resistant to the vaccine and we need to protect against them and so going abroad will still require negative tests and quarantine.

So far, the polling is very supportive of this tougher stance but once the question is rephrased to something along the lines of do you want a tougher stance and lose your summer holiday, I think the polling will change markedly. Nevertheless, I'm betting on flying without quarantine on return being off the agenda this year, and possibly through May 22.

DTWflyer

I'm not optimistic at all since they are saying that mass vaccination for gen-pop isn't likely to start here (in Michigan) until August / September 2021 which in all likelihood means it will take well in 2022 to get through the masses.'

The narratives keep changing and the goal posts keep moving.......

rankourabu

The 72hr test requirement will stay. There and everywhere else. This will be a major hurdle for a long time to come - vaccinated or not.
Sure, you ll be able to pay for a test on the way out - but will you get one in time on the way back? What facilities will exist? What if you test positive (or false positive) and youre screwed, vaccinated or not.

downinit

Airlines will no doubt be making sure the test are available on both ends, as their livelihood depends on it. It is very easy to supply rapid antigen tests at the airport, but PCR tests will require a little more effort if they are required. Travel insurance, which covers COVID, will also be compulsory for anyone who cannot afford an unplanned extension. The biggest fear is false positives, which could create a major hassle for no good reason. On the flip side, a mandatory return test provides a clear incentive to obey yourself on holiday, as opposed to what the visitors in MEX are doing right now. The truth is in the middle, as always. Travel will not be stopping completely until COVID disappears, but we will be required to be more precautious and intelligent about our decisions.

Dieuwer

That would require almost every politician on the planet to step down, go to jail, and be replaced by someone else who uses his/her common sense for a change. Fat chance.

lobo411

Countries won't wait for 100% vaccination to open, though. For one thing, 100% vaccination is impossible to achieve, since some fraction of the population is not going to get the vaccine unless you literally chase them down and shoot them with dart guns. For another thing, it's medically unnecessary to have 100% vaccination. We don't know what we need to get to for herd immunity, but it's certainly less than 100%.

Europe opened for foreign travelers from countries with low case counts when the EU's case counts dropped low enough in the summer of 2020. I expect the summer of 2021 will be the same, especially since you can now require vaccination.

And finally, the number of people eligible for some level of "priority" is huge. Probably about 2/3 of the entire population is "priority," so the timetable you described actually means close to 70% of the population vaccinated by August.

downinit

Common sense has never dictated policy or swayed politicians, only the trail of money can do that. And the billions of dollars at stake in travel will definitely get things moving once the current flare-up dies down. Now is just the absolute worst time to be looking for answers, because we are currently at the height of uncertainty, with so many unknown variable including the vaccine and mutations, coinciding with record high infection/hospitalization rates. The situation will almost certainly be markedly improved in a few months, but we are all in a holding pattern for the time being.

lobo411

I was basing it on what the WHO director said two days ago:

Which is a bit silly, since it's well-established that covid death rates are orders of magnitude higher in the First World than they are in the Third World. It seems to me that the vaccine is going to those most at risk already.

Now, I think the rest of the world will be vaccinated starting as soon as the First World countries' populations are finished, because it's in everyone's interest to stop the virus before it has many more chances to mutate. It just won't happen before the First World is fully vaccinated.

https://www.scidev.net/sub-saharan-a...vid-shots-who/

invisible

Based on what is going on and how it is developed and - more importantly- if the current trends are going to continue the following outcome is more likely for next 6 months for number of countries:

- there will be replacements of entry bans with negative test results which will apply to any traveler, regardless of nationality, current/past residence, origin or destination.
- you will be required to do/present negative test result minimum two times - at the entrance to the airport/checkin counter for your outgoing/return trip.
- regardless where you are coming from or where you are going, it is highly likely that you will be required to have 5-7 days quarantine at destination, origin or both, combined with requirements to take two more tests to let you out.
- fact/proof of vaccination will not be a waiver for testing.

If you want to take vacation on these terms - be my guest.

freedom2020

Israel has 1/3 of population received at least 1 dose. UAE 1/5. Yet both countries are still seeing new highs in daily cases. We will soon find out if vaccines are a hoax.

invisible

Question is - what is the correlation between vaccinated population and people who are admitted into hospitals and mortality.

If vaccines turn Covid into something manageable by significantly reducing number of people needing medical care but not preventing transmissions, it is still a good thing.

the810

Vaccine protects against covid-19, not against the virus. The virus is here to stay and people will still get infected. The key is to protect vulnerable groups who are likely to get ill when infected by vaccinating them and making sure they will remain healthy or will only get mild symptoms (and once we've done that, we can also vaccinate anyone else who wishes so for whatever reason).