azepine00

Corporate world is all about "me too".
Your company maybe all supportive of wfh and telecons now but as soon as you competitor is back in office and flying to clients you will be too.

That being said vaccines implementation and assessment will take time and restrictions will not be lifted in many countries for quite some time

mtofell

Post vaccination I think there will be some pent-up travel demand for sure. Business travel? I suppose there will some permanent reduction but there really is no substitute for face to face interaction. Also, I think some business travelers actually enjoy getting out on the road. Just think of all the cheating road warriors who have been stuck at home with their spouses for 9 months. I have to think they will be chomping at the bit to start traveling again.

PrivatePilot

I think we will remain in a hybrid model as the new normal. Meeting in person to close deals, kicking off projects, important meetings, etc. But gone are the days where I would spend a whole day traveling for a 60 minute not so important meeting. Its so much more efficient to jump on a video call and continue with your day.

Chris2013

I’ve heard similar numbers as well. Yes some business travel will return and face to face meetings will happen again HOWEVER...many companies who previously relied on road warriors will likely change their business model to reflect the ease and cost savings of teleconferencing. I work in the manufacturing business and while personal relationships DO matter, much of our business comes down to dollars and cents. If the numbers work, we have a deal ...if not...sorry even if I like you as a person.

My company has budgeted for a 25% reduction in travel PERMANENTLY and while this could change, others in our industry are also budgeting for a reduction between 20-30%.

EAJuggalo

It will come back somewhat, but I don't ever see it being 2019 levels. My company has reduced office space by 40% while adding 15% more people than we had a year ago. Someone finally figured out how much stuff that was being done in the cube farms could be done from home. I think that a lot of companies are finding that out about travel too. They didn't really need to fly 3 hours there, have 4 hours of meetings, spend the night and fly 3 hours back home.

Of course my weekend job was set to increase travel by 40% in 2020. No idea if that is going to happen in 2021.

sdsearch

It's not a yes or no question. It's a matter of degree:

A tiny bit of business travel has come back even before the vaccine.

A bit more of business travel will come back as people take the vaccine.

Some more business travel may come back if and when enough people take the vaccine to make Covid wither away, but if not enough people take the vaccine for that, who knows how much less business travel may come back?

But will business travel ever come back to 2019 level? Not likely, because a bunch of businesses have figured out that part of (even if not all of) what they did previously exclusively with travel, they can now do to some degree with online video meetings (Zoom, etc). Many businesses didn't even try Zoom, etc, until Covid (before Covid it was voice calls or visits, nothing in between), and now they realize that video conferencing works well for some situations that they previously thought that only business travel worked for.

So business travel will likely come back in phases, but it's unclear if and when it will come all the way back to 2019 levels in absolute terms or in percentage terms. (And it may never come back in percentage terms, but due to increased population it may eventually come back in absolute terms.)

But even if business travel is always a smaller percentage of total travel than it ever was before, that may require travel companies to adjust to that in some ways long term. Again, though, it depends on exact percentages of business travel going forward, and that's pretty impossible to forecast precisely.

VickiSoCal

As my husband said to his mom the other day when she asked when he will be traveling, again "When my clients are back in their offices."

Not much point in travelling to visit an empty office.

DTWflyer

Right now its hard to tell since many of us and our client/customers and vendor/suppliers were all forced to primarily work from home.
Many of us and businesses are sustaining this year on previously built teams, relationships, contracts, and projects. The multi-year projects I have where we all know each other have generally faired well this year. Its been increasingly difficult to sell and deliver new work in the near-fully virtual environment. Some aspects we can do very well virtually, others we are struggling and/or pushed off until we can meet.

I did zero travel from early-March through June. In July started traveling again via car and got back in the air in September. Its been pretty limited where we have to go into some plants and warehouses do so some on-site work and basically a "get in do what you need to do and get out mentality".

There is a going to be a lot of variation based on both the industry and also the nature/purpose of the trip as to how it recovers. Sales, collaboration, conferences, training are all best done in-person. Mundane status meetings and stuff can easily be done in person.
It will be interesting to see how the consulting industry changes and adapts to this since so many were stuck in the Mon-Thu weekly travel routine since that was historically how it was.

I will say, WFH 100% isn't for me. Granted I love my wife and family but man its hard being home all the time and being able to focus and/or balance. There are times when things are crazy for work, and its easier to separate and compartmentalize when you are either in the office or on the road. Its easier to work late, crush out a bunch of work, and stay focused either working in the office or when on the road working late in the hotel. Its a lot harder to do so at home. Too many interruptions, too many distractions. We all need to get back to school, back to offices, back to being out of the house more often. I roll my eyes when I see these types that are like its great to me home so much. I don't want my home to become my office, my school, my gym. That's not the game I signed up for. If my job wants to be 100% WFH I'll go find a job that isn't.

PA34

Great posts. I think we now know why offices were invented in the first place: to get work done, free from distraction, and arguably to give us the ability to "separate" work and home. I wonder if/when offices are open, how many of us will be checking work email on a Saturday via our Smartphone/etc at Junior's soccer game anymore

GregWTravels

I think the balance between these two quotes/experiences will be the determining factor. Yes, many businesses have been able to work remotely, and I know lots of businesses who were absolutely against WFH for any employee prior to Covid where it didn't make sense. But it's a lot easier maintaining relationships with someone you already know virtually, versus making a new relationship fully online. As new staff need to come on, training would likely be much easier in person, and building relationships with new clients are easier face-to-face and then you can maintain online. So the question will be where that balance is most optimal.

lhrsfo

Nearly all the 20 and young 30-somethings I know are desperate to get back to the office. How do they learn and how do they get to know the people who will help them climb the greasy pole without an office existence?

DTWflyer

The general sentiment I got from most people is overall increased flexibility. Flexibility that cuts in all directions.

Travel - when it makes sense and has the most value / purpose; on the converse reducing the amount of unnecessary travel for short meetings that could be done virtually or the mindless mundane weekly travel for unnecessary "face time" or "optics"

In-Office - when it makes sense and have value; collaborating and meeting with others, providing a space with the appropriate resources/technology/amenities, a place to focus; but putting and end to the "butt-in-seat mentality" or the forced 8/9-to-5 mantra that if I don't see you at your desk you must not be producttive mindless, allowing greater flexibility in hours/day in the office, or being able to do solo tasks like email or working on individual tasks remotely

WFH/remote - when it makes sense to have time to do solo / individual tasks, join status calls virtually; but not force people to do 4-8 hour working sessions virtually, etc. Allow for greater flexibility to allow for parenting and caregiving.

The vibe I've gotten is many people are looking for 2-3 days a week in the office, the others remote. Travel less frequently, but when they do make it more impactful. Instead of the weekly 2-3 day trip, do a monthly 3-4 day trip with the overall same net benefit. Consulting / professional services instead of flying in the whole team Mon-Thu every week, instead have a smaller subset on-site weekly and develop a rotational/coverage schedule and maybe fly in the whole team every 4-6 weeks instead.

flyer29

Everyone in my industry (enterprise sales) is itching to get back out on the road. The main drivers to re-start business travel will be sales reps who insist on meeting their clients face-to-face, and sales reps bring in $$ so they'll be listened to. After the sales reps start traveling again, then we'll start to see team meetings, small conferences (10-50 people), etc. Probably 2023 before it gets back to pre-Covid levels, but I believe business travel will INCREASE from 2019 levels after that.

There is a massive pent-up demand to travel. I never thought I would miss airport layovers and generic hotels, but I have to admit that I do. And if you're forward thinking, you see that companies will now begin to hire people who live in areas without an office, and travel will be necessary to bring people together. The old-school office is dead in my opinion.

cesco.g

How many weeks would you estimate to be back on the road post-CV?

I strongly believe there is quite some pent-up demand.
Further I hear from affluent working and active retired folks to "go for it - as you never know when another pandemic wave might hit"!

Dublin_rfk

I can’t estimate on travel post Corona Virus in general as I don’t know how long the next administration will extend and drag out the Lockdowns. As for me I am already hard scheduled for 34 days in January and February and 21+ days in March in Japan.