the810

The government refuses to release comprehensive data, instead the PM keeps posting on Facebook how everyone wants to copy his brilliant idea 😀 Matovic is essentially the central European version of Trump.

fransknorge

I posted some updates with link in the fact based thread, you might have to go a few pages back. The second round was completed with a halving of positive results.

flyertalker28120

fransknorge and others with in-depth knowledge of the virus spread:

For personal reasons (I've got family and friends there), I follow the developments in the UK closely. I noticed for at least a week or so, it appeared some of the hardest-hit areas in England were reaching a plateau. But now I take another look a some places and it seems it's going back up. For instance, in the City of Manchester, numbers seemed to level off to an incidence of 500 or 600 and now they're back up at 1022.

Do you guys have a story for these wild swings (perhaps not at the local, but at the national level)? I mean, I have some conjectures, but IDK if they make any sense.

fransknorge

I do not follow enough the local details in the UK to have a precise idea, just some conjectures. One main thesis is that this is the effect of the big party before the lockdown: lots of people went into pubs and restaurants in order to have a "last one" before the lockdown (as it was announced several days prior to its entry in force) and that the rebound is due to that, as it is now 14 days after.

Misco60

Two weeks into the English lockdown, UK infection rates should by now be starting to show a clear and sustained fall.

I've spent the last two weeks in London, being unable to enter Wales at the moment, and it is clear that the "lockdown" exists largely in name only. The roads are busy, the parks are full of large groups ignoring social distancing and the supermarkets are only half-heartedly limiting customer numbers. The number of people making "essential" purchases at B&Q on Sunday was surprising.

If infection rates are not falling by the end of this week I think we can consider the lockdown to have been a failure.

alex67500

What's striking to me in CWS' daily data is how France is now on a clear down slope. This is too early compared to the date of the start of the lockdown there, so it must be explained by something else. Could it be that the curfew orders in big cities/heavily affected areas have actually had an effect? (Of course, it could be due to lower testing because that line seems to be going down too, and without explanation, but not by that much)

scottishpoet

While announced on October 31st the 2nd lockdown did not start until Nov 5th. Still a couple of days to go till we get to 2 weeks

With schools not closed then it may be this lockdown plateaus and falls more slowly. hopefully in the next few days we will see things turn around.

What you are saying about UK behaviours in this lockdown is similar to what I have seen to the higher levels of restrictions currently in place in Poland. We are starting to see numbers fall. We moved to this level of restrictions about a week before the UK did. one key difference, we did close our schools. currently national official reported numbers seem to be lower than last week, but higher than 2 weeks ago so the 14 day average is still going up.

Misco60

If you wish to split hairs, today is the 13th day of the lockdown.

But I was trying to make a general point, not be precise about how long it is since we were locked down.

scottishpoet

from what I have seen most places across Europe cases continue to rise for at least a week after the lockdown starts, which means the 14 day number will not fall much.

I think the graph looks like the cases are not accelerating so quickly and hopefully start falling. The number 2 weeks ago today was lower than the days around it.

florens

For those interested, the published new case numbers for Switzerland do not include rapid tests.

While case numbers start to come down, the positivity is still fairly high at ~20%

Mortality rate is increasing. We are now at 11.4/100k deaths.

fransknorge

Switzerland f***cked up big time, I guess the price to pay to let it rip:
Excess death are trending at similar level as the first wave. And Swiss federation of ICU doctors released a media note today, saying that there are no more beds available of the 876 usual beds. They say everyone should now think about their end-of-life advanced directives (do not resuscitate etc, especially high risk people).




https://www.sgi-ssmi.ch/files/Dateiv...1117_DE_10.pdf

the810

It seems Sweden's growth rate is now slowing down significantly. Do we know what is their positivity rate? I wonder if this is because of testing capacity or because of changes in people's behaviour (Stockholm is now significantly quieter than it was few weeks ago).

GUWonder

The positivity rate in Stockholm and Sweden has skyrocketed in the past week or two.

It's both testing and changes in behavior, but the more meaningful way to monitor how goes the situation in Stockholm is done via the sewage system monitoring.

People de-camping from Stockholm (to elsewhere in Sweden) has consequences for the rest of Sweden, and there is a lot of that which has gone on in recent weeks and days as the message goes out more to "work from 'home' when possible".

orbitmic

Just a small methodological note that since yesterday French figures include positives from antigenic testing. Yesterday in fact added all the backlog (apparently) from antigenic tests carried out all the way since October (about 33,000).

Note that antigenic tests are not included in the positivity rate (which would go down quite a bit if they were) which continues do decrease regularly every day.

fransknorge

The positivity rate is climbing still (minus 1 day but this is enough to make a trend)

*:



7 out of 21 regions in Sweden are at 100% capacity for testing since a week:
https://www.svt.se/nyheter/inrikes/l...or-provtagning