Commonpass - Is this the light at the end of the tunnel?
Nov 29, 2020, 11:55 am
#31
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: home = LAX
Posts: 25,933
Given that tests have false negatives, how many tests would *prove* that one won't transmit the virus? Unless the word "proof" has some wiggle room not included in the meaning of this word, no numbers of tests would ever be sufficient unless the test is absolutely accurate with no false negatives at all, ever.
If we're talking about some acceptable level of risk to be determined by policy, words like prove and proof should be avoided.
If we're talking about some acceptable level of risk to be determined by policy, words like prove and proof should be avoided.
I would think the closest thing we have to a "proof" with tests right now is an antibody which shows that you have Covid and got over it (and strongly implies, though does not 100% prove, that you are still immune). There is no "proof" that you haven't gotten Covid yet. So "proof" of immunity (from past Covid or from a vaccine) seems a lot stronger than so-called "proof" of not having it now. The problem is that comparatively few people have had Covid yet, so until vaccines are more widely available, that better kind of "proof" wouldn't be very practical.
Nov 30, 2020, 8:46 am
#32
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: RBKC
Programs: AA EXP and Eurostar Carte Blanche
Posts: 3,849
Interesting that the yellow book doesn't seem likely to be used, but the yellow book is an antiquated system and easy to forge, in any case. Perhaps this will spur the replacement of the yellow book also.
Dec 1, 2020, 6:48 pm
#33
Join Date: Oct 2019
Location: Mexico City, MX
Programs: No airline/hotel status use, Chase UR, Amex MR, CapOne etc
Posts: 266
I doubt this will come into effect because the wheels of bureaucracy turn so slow by the time anything close to this would be implemented the crisis will already have long been over. Colombia and Ecuador had testing requirements and then quickly backtracked after they realized enforcing it was a mess and not really doing anything to stop the spread.
I also believe that people are assuming everyone has to be vaccinated for life to get back to normal, but the reality is vaccinating the 10% most vulnerable of society will result in 80% drop in deaths and hospitalizations. I believe this will occur rather quickly in the next 2-3 months.
So basically my prediction is most countries open up this summer (with asia in the fall), and these wacky ideas never come to be. We'll see if I was off the ball or not.
I also believe that people are assuming everyone has to be vaccinated for life to get back to normal, but the reality is vaccinating the 10% most vulnerable of society will result in 80% drop in deaths and hospitalizations. I believe this will occur rather quickly in the next 2-3 months.
So basically my prediction is most countries open up this summer (with asia in the fall), and these wacky ideas never come to be. We'll see if I was off the ball or not.
Dec 28, 2020, 1:14 am
#34
Suspended
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: YVR
Programs: Air Canada Super Elite 2+ Million Miles
Posts: 2,478
It feels like with enough traction and attention this could be the new normal / way forward. Right now countries are just operating independently - could the below be the new recognised way of allowing travel to resume? One system recognised by all countries (or most)?
Waiting for countries to start working together to reopen borders is pointless - bureaucrats don't fix anything. It takes entrepreneurs to look at a problem and come up with a solution - could this be it? Should the major airlines get round the table and take a serious look at this and decide "were going to back this and push for its implementation'?
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/trave...tl-ldn-vpx.cnn
Waiting for countries to start working together to reopen borders is pointless - bureaucrats don't fix anything. It takes entrepreneurs to look at a problem and come up with a solution - could this be it? Should the major airlines get round the table and take a serious look at this and decide "were going to back this and push for its implementation'?
https://edition.cnn.com/videos/trave...tl-ldn-vpx.cnn
So might you please explain which countries will give up sovereignty so that entrepreneurs can make money in finding solutions?
My guess is your post is in gest, so is mine
