Stewie Mac

These lockdowns aren't slamming the economy? Goldman is estimating an annualised 34% drop in US GDP in Q2, and if these lockdowns continue then their forecast bounce-back in Q3 ain't going to happen.

Forget the Great Recession of 2008 - this is going to be 30s era Depression...

doctoravios

I am optimistic about the development of sensitive point-of-care tests to detect active infection and immunity but less optimistic about a vaccine. But the thing to remember is that eventually this virus will become endemic with a natural pattern of (possibly seasonal) infection and a general degree of population immunity which waxes and wanes from time to time, regardless of whether we are able to successfully develop a vaccine. However, when we will reach this point remains uncertain. I initially predicted some point between 12-18 months from February this year but SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 is unusual in so many ways I think it is now impossible to meaningfully predict the epidemiology.

On the other hand, there will be enormous economic and political barriers to enabling international travel again. Airlines are in ruin. Business travel will remain depressed for years after the pandemic is over and this will affect supply/demand for international travel. I know practically nothing about economics but I do wonder if this is going to be a greater barrier to re-enabling international travel over the next few years than the pandemic itself.

aeisenmann

I agree. I did book a super cheap box ticket to Lima in November, but fully know that I might be wasted money. Having SOMETHING upcoming curtails some of my withdrawal symptoms. Have a GREAT day and CHEERS!

paulaf

Agree we can't bounce back if the lockdowns continue past Q2!

MSYtoJFKagain

I had a big post typed out about how screwed we are because of bad leadership and slow response time but I think it's been belabored enough.

We're past being able to fix this without a depression.

Internaut

I would be amazed if I get on another plane, anywhere at all, this year (and I really do need a holiday somewhere nice - or at least a home office somewhere nicer than my bedroom)! Given the effects on the economy, I'm not even sure the old normal we took for granted will be possible. Sorry for the pessimism.

HaleiwaFlyer

Thats the issue at hand, that there are asymptomatic spreaders, and hence social distancing for the entire country because we can't test every single individual in the US. The question that follows with what you have asked is why do we test in the first place? For a test that confirms an active infection, the purpose would be to diagnose and guide treatment. For a test that shows a previous anti-body response, it just gathers data of past response to an infection which can be used for epidemiology purposes. I agree, the more clinically useful one is the one that confirms an active infection.

The perfect world would be to test the entire population, and isolate the active individuals who are both symptomatic and asymptomatic. Due to an imperfect world, social distancing/self quarantine is the best that we have for the entire population due to resource constraints. Tests can help guide physicians to make the proper diagnosis and treatment plan for the front line staff.

A318neo

One big mistake is not a strict enough lockdown and people not wearing masks. If there was a complete lockdown, Covid-19 might be nearly over in a month. Even in the lockdown states, marijuana and gun shops are open.

I don't know of any countries that has the capacity to test everyone maybe every month. If the US did that, it would need a billion tests every 3 months.

T8191

And there lies a large slice of the problem. Some States (0h, blessed States’ Rights) just aren’t taking this seriously enough. And until they do, the people won’t take it seriously enough either.

I assume a new ,357 S&W, or associated semi-jacketed HP ammo, and a slab of weed is deemed “essential”? Or perhaps for re-election purposes??

Internaut

Up to 60% people who get it might be asymptomatic or have symptoms so mild that they ignore it and get on with life*. I pay little attention to the tinfoil hat wearers, but I can't say I blame them either - from a certain perspective, it's perfect in it's capability to disrupt life and critical systems life and civilisation depend on, including travel. I'm actually thinking of starting to wear a face mask when out for my exercise (and I'm very doubtful as the effectiveness of those).

* Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...ve-no-symptoms - "Chinese researchers estimate that 59% of those who contracted the virus had mild or no symptoms. Documents seen by the South China Morning Post reportedly showed more than 40,000 asymptomatic patients that would not have been included in China’s total number of infections of more than 80,000."

paulaf

Imagine how low the mortality rate really is if we could measure it including all these stats.

Internaut

Mortality rate is probably very low, while infection rate is through the roof. Example, Given a population of 60 million: 20% get it, 0.1% of those die. You're looking at two problems:

• A lot of dead people
• A collapsed health system (and bonus knock on effects).

Though if the 0.1% assumes good healthcare, then it will be higher anyway since health resources won't be sufficient. Hence government efforts to protect health systems around the world. We're all just a number now.

Loren Pechtel

Unclean to unclean doesn't really do any harm. You either quarantine and test or you don't, anyone who doesn't has no expectation of becoming clean until they have herd immunity, whether naturally or through a vaccine. Only the countries enforcing quarantine should have their borders closed.

Loren Pechtel

If you stamp it out what you should do is quarantine all new arrivals, including citizens.

Loren Pechtel

And note that if you do open up the economy that doesn't mean people will go along with visiting the lion's den. People have been in denial but I don't think many will be for long when the bodies are piling up.