Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
Last edit by: Ocn Vw 1K
In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.
All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.
Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.
This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.
•Constructive, respectful posts, views, opinions, questions, and replies, related to the topic are welcome. Avoid commenting on members personally, or posting off-topic or political messages.
•While respectful disagreement of a posted view is allowed, don’t call-out posters to prove their points. FlyerTalk has never required discussion standards at the level of a Ph.D. dissertation defense, or a trial court witness cross-examination.
•After a reasonable exchange of views on a point, please yield the floor so that others may bring up different topics, questions or points.
•Especially important in this time of pandemic, when normal life and travel have been upended: please take regular breaks from the thread.
Please stay healthy,
your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.
COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions
Mar 22, 2020, 8:19 pm
#1366
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2000
Posts: 17,417
While I believe "the Italian virus wave" has significantly reduced the chances of the Olympics being held this summer in Tokyo, I think it both premature and juvenile for the various interests to be arguing about it now. Let's take a 2 week hiatus to see what's going on with the virus. April seems like a much better time to start making decisions. There are bigger fish to fry at the moment, and there is too much scientific uncertainty right now to make good decisions on this.
Mar 22, 2020, 8:21 pm
#1367
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,393
While I believe "the Italian virus wave" has significantly reduced the chances of the Olympics being held this summer in Tokyo, I think it both premature and juvenile for the various interests to be arguing about it now. Let's wait 2 weeks and see what's going on with the virus. April seems like a much better time to start making decisions. There are bigger fish to fry and the moment, and there is too much scientific uncertainty right now to make good decisions on this.
Mar 22, 2020, 8:33 pm
#1368
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,663
According to the Worldometer, the US added 9.3k cases today. At this pace we will surpass China and Italy in 5-6 days, and it will be undisputed world domination from that point on.
Last edited by NewbieRunner; Mar 22, 2020 at 11:46 pm Reason: remove OMNI/PR content
Mar 22, 2020, 8:53 pm
#1369
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,900
Mar 22, 2020, 9:00 pm
#1371
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Now, in Italy maybe the real fatality rate is higher, but it’s applied to a much smaller number of people than the all-causes fatality rate (the infected population rather than the whole population) and given the demographic numbers for the deaths out of Italy (mean age 79.5, 99.2% with comorbidity) a large number of the deaths may have been members of the “all causes” count even without Covid-19.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:02 pm
#1372
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Virginia City Highlands
Programs: Nothing anymore after 20 years
Posts: 6,900
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesional...2_COVID-19.pdf
Pages 1-2 are most telling.
Last edited by invisible; Mar 22, 2020 at 9:15 pm
Mar 22, 2020, 9:04 pm
#1373
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,393
It doesn’t sound too surprising. Global all causes death rate is 0.77% per year (59.29 million people this year), which is higher than the best estimates of real fatality rate for Covid-19 when medical care is working, and of course the coronavirus will not infect anything like the entire population.
Now, in Italy maybe the real fatality rate is higher, but it’s applied to a much smaller number of people than the all-causes fatality rate (the infected population rather than the whole population) and given the demographic numbers for the deaths out of Italy (mean age 79.5, 99.2% with comorbidity) a large number of the deaths may have been members of the “all causes” count even without Covid-19.
Now, in Italy maybe the real fatality rate is higher, but it’s applied to a much smaller number of people than the all-causes fatality rate (the infected population rather than the whole population) and given the demographic numbers for the deaths out of Italy (mean age 79.5, 99.2% with comorbidity) a large number of the deaths may have been members of the “all causes” count even without Covid-19.
https://reason.com/2020/03/17/italia...y-up-about-80/
"Italy's population is about 60 million, and its normal death rate is 10.6 per 1000, which is to say about 640,000 deaths per year, or about 1750 per day; the 350 or so extra deaths per day over the last couple of days (if this worldometers.info data is correct) are about 20%."
I don't know if I'd consider that "far exceeding" coronavirus, 20% is getting reasonably close. And March 22nd had 600+ extra deaths in Italy, up to 33% of normal.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:09 pm
#1374
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
Looked up numbers for Italy specifically. Their all-causes fatality rate is higher. 1.06% per year. On an average day in 2019, from all causes, you would expect 1756 people to die.
unfortunately I haven’t seen any data that would allow us to know how many additional deaths Covid-19 is causing. Given the average age of the patients that died, and the 99.2% with comorbidity, I suspect that there is a large overlap between the baseline 1756/day and the Covid-19 deaths.
unfortunately I haven’t seen any data that would allow us to know how many additional deaths Covid-19 is causing. Given the average age of the patients that died, and the 99.2% with comorbidity, I suspect that there is a large overlap between the baseline 1756/day and the Covid-19 deaths.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:17 pm
#1375
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: May 2015
Location: BOS, YVR, ZRH
Programs: *G
Posts: 17,393
Looked up numbers for Italy specifically. Their all-causes fatality rate is higher. 1.06% per year. On an average day in 2019, from all causes, you would expect 1756 people to die.
unfortunately I haven’t seen any data that would allow us to know how many additional deaths Covid-19 is causing. Given the average age of the patients that died, and the 99.2% with comorbidity, I suspect that there is a large overlap between the baseline 1756/day and the Covid-19 deaths.
unfortunately I haven’t seen any data that would allow us to know how many additional deaths Covid-19 is causing. Given the average age of the patients that died, and the 99.2% with comorbidity, I suspect that there is a large overlap between the baseline 1756/day and the Covid-19 deaths.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:18 pm
#1376
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: DFW
Posts: 28,092
Dallas County,Texas has issued a shelter in place order through April 3 although the state governor has elected not to do so for the entire state. Seems to me that as tough as a shelter in place order will be on people and business it's the most direct way to flatten the curve.
Last edited by Boggie Dog; Mar 22, 2020 at 9:50 pm
Mar 22, 2020, 9:29 pm
#1377
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
some will have been terminal - I saw some suggestion that all of the under-40 deaths were - but certainly not all. I don’t think there’s any data right now that can reliably tell us how many additional deaths are happening. Even a real-time daily all causes death count would be confounded by lower fatality rates from things like influenza and traffic accidents since everyone is mostly staying home.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:34 pm
#1378
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Aug 2014
Programs: Top Tier with all 3 alliances
Posts: 11,663
Looked up numbers for Italy specifically. Their all-causes fatality rate is higher. 1.06% per year. On an average day in 2019, from all causes, you would expect 1756 people to die.
unfortunately I haven’t seen any data that would allow us to know how many additional deaths Covid-19 is causing. Given the average age of the patients that died, and the 99.2% with comorbidity, I suspect that there is a large overlap between the baseline 1756/day and the Covid-19 deaths.
unfortunately I haven’t seen any data that would allow us to know how many additional deaths Covid-19 is causing. Given the average age of the patients that died, and the 99.2% with comorbidity, I suspect that there is a large overlap between the baseline 1756/day and the Covid-19 deaths.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:43 pm
#1379
Join Date: Nov 2018
Posts: 765
We can do the math. If for the 60 million Italians you can expect 1,756 deaths on an average day, for a group of 60k Italians (the same number infected with Covid-19 today), you would expect 1.7 deaths per average day. Just today, 651 Italians died from Covid-19. So, the excess deaths from Covid-19 are 651 - 2 = 649 per day.
Firstly, you can’t assume the same baseline death rate for a sample that wasn’t randomly selected from the population. The expected number of all-causes deaths for that 60k sample is just not known.
Secondly, 60k is the number of cases, not the number of infected people (which epidemiologists in Italy have suggested is certainly well into the hundreds of thousands already). So the expected number of deaths, whatever it is (see above), in the sample is much larger than you’re saying.
Mar 22, 2020, 9:45 pm
#1380
FlyerTalk Evangelist
Join Date: Jul 2011
Location: RNO
Programs: AA/DL/UA
Posts: 10,770
We can do the math. If for the 60 million Italians you can expect 1,756 deaths on an average day, for a group of 60k Italians (the same number infected with Covid-19 today), you would expect 1.7 deaths per average day. Just today, 651 Italians died from Covid-19. So, the excess deaths from Covid-19 are 651 - 2 = 649 per day.