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COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions

Old Mar 11, 2020, 10:13 am
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In order to reduce noise in the Coronavirus / Covid-19 : general fact-based reporting thread, and to create a central place to invite any member to ask a basic question about the impact of COVID-19 on travel, your moderators have decided to open this separate "lounge" thread for related discussion that isn't strictly fact-based reporting.
Any member who can provide a constructive, helpful answer to a question; or post constructively in reply to a member's point-of-view, is welcome to post.

All FT rules apply, including avoiding personalized, snarky, political, other off-topic, commercial, and repeatedly disruptive content.

Discussion of general economic impacts of Covid-19 belongs in the OMNI forum, not here.
Discussion and critique of political/government actions to aid the economy or which is far more political than related to COVID-19 is for the OMNI/PR forum, not here.

This is a protocol for posting adopted by the forum Moderator team:Please follow this protocol, based on FlyerTalk Rules and long-standing FlyerTalk best practices. Doing so will help keep the thread open, and allow our moderator team to aid members, rather than having to resort to discipline.

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Please stay healthy,

your FT Coronavirus and Travel Moderator Team.








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COVID-19: Lounge thread for thoughts, concerns and questions

 
Old Mar 17, 2020, 8:46 am
  #721  
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Originally Posted by nk15

The generational divide and the threat from younger people not taking this seriously or care enough and keep on partying at home or outside...
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world...?ocid=primedhp
This kind of thing in various ski resort area accounts for much of the spread in Scandinavian countries, where it's been the more privileged end of the demographic spectrum that has been bringing this back and spreading it around -- including as community spread. And then when back home, they are back to the super-socializing among their peer-group. And guess what happens next: ordering high-schools and universities to shut-down without getting their attendees to also commit to other social distancing measures. Not a recipe to spare their grandparents -- or even their parents -- from the risks of this .

It will be interesting to see what Passover/Easter-related socializing will mean for the more vulnerable.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 8:48 am
  #722  
 
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Man traveling to Seychelles and South Africa in May (through Qatar) from U.S.. Our plan is to go so long as no bans are in place but looking less and less likely at this point. Guess will have to decide in May.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 8:51 am
  #723  
 
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Originally Posted by ezefllying
My question is, really, how a large country could actually stamp out every domestic case and not see outbreaks pop up.
Didn't they do it during the original SARS?
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 8:58 am
  #724  
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Originally Posted by cmtlatitudes
Percy, do you happen to have a link for this? That is NOT what is being reported on other Australian travel forums. However those forums are starting to become so slanted to "Stay the Puck Home" messaging, it's getting harder to discern what information is actually accurate.
Australian travel forums: AFF? Anyone else?

"If you have a layover, you must remain in the airport or self-isolate in your accommodation for the transit period." https://www.health.gov.au/sites/defa...avellers_0.pdf (I included the link in the post you quoted https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32191661-post618.html )

Also interpreted the same way here https://www.flyertalk.com/forum/32194126-post80.html

Last edited by percysmith; Mar 17, 2020 at 11:16 am
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 9:20 am
  #725  
 
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Originally Posted by ezefllying
In short, if China can truly stamp out, rather just mitigate, the virus in 10 weeks, can the West?
At what cost?

YtY data for first two month of economic activity in China shows drop by 20%. China never had any drop since the end of Cultural Revolution.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 9:29 am
  #726  
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Originally Posted by Anlun
Man traveling to Seychelles and South Africa in May (through Qatar) from U.S.. Our plan is to go so long as no bans are in place but looking less and less likely at this point. Guess will have to decide in May.
You can forget South Africa.
https://www.discoverafrica.com/coron...-south-africa/

Other sources also exist. We are impacted too, btw.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 9:33 am
  #727  
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Originally Posted by invisible
At what cost?

YtY data for first two month of economic activity in China shows drop by 20%. China never had any drop since the end of Cultural Revolution.
And this is the elephant in the room.

While there is understandable focus on the health aspects (I’m a 75-yo smoker, so clearly vulnerable) the Economic aspects world-wide are incomprehensible. Think of small businesses, forced to close. Think of tourism-dependent economies in nice sunny countries (or indeed cold ones).

We will all emerge to a completely different World.
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Last edited by T8191; Mar 17, 2020 at 9:45 am Reason: typo
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 9:34 am
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Non-refundable hotels

It seems that most non-refundable hotel/accommodation bookings that need to be canceled as a result of the Corona-related travel restrictions are refundable after all.

So far, my friends and I have canceled dozens of such bookings in Italy, Morocco, Vietnam, Thailand and the Philippines, and ALL agreed to not charge - or pay back the booking money.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 9:39 am
  #729  
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Originally Posted by Boggie Dog
I'm not an economist either but many businesses that fail were already on the brink and just needed a small push from anything to put them over the edge. And for businesses that do fail there will be others with the capital and the ability to fill that gap in due course. I know it is tough to lose everything but hopefully business owners,and employees alike, have set a nest egg aside for a rainy day, it is about to storm big time!
You are missing the fact that as small businesses and homeowners with mortgages begin to default on their loans, the banks will be heading in the direction of collapse. I think we are a long way from that in the US, but it is not the case in many other countries. When the financial system gets close to collapse, even if in just one region of the world, that is when the cure is truly worse than the disease.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 10:22 am
  #730  
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Originally Posted by stimpy
You are missing the fact that as small businesses and homeowners with mortgages begin to default on their loans, the banks will be heading in the direction of collapse. I think we are a long way from that in the US, but it is not the case in many other countries. When the financial system gets close to collapse, even if in just one region of the world, that is when the cure is truly worse than the disease.
Didn't miss that just didn't mention that part of the problem. Banks have reserves set aside to manage loan losses and many mortgages have insurance to insulate the lender to some degree along with other protections. Then there are the senior officers of companies that have been stuffing their pockets with extreme salaries instead of taking steps to protect their companies from a once in a lifetime event. Many seem OK with the small business owner or homeowners taking a hit but Katy bar the door when it's the banks or big business.

That rainy day we've all been warned about is here!
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 10:30 am
  #731  
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Originally Posted by Boggie Dog
Banks have reserves set aside to manage loan losses
Actually they don't. Not nearly enough. Here is one example... https://www.wsj.com/articles/europea...on-11584382483
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 10:33 am
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Originally Posted by narvik
There have been cases of death that have been falsely attributed to influenza, and only after testing postmortem confirmed as caused by COVID-19.
Some believe this situation is currently occurring quite often.

Very difficult to distinguish the cause of death when up to 500 persons a day are dying in the US of influenza during peak flu season, yet [hardly] no testing is done for COVID-19.
It is sobering that the H1N1 (2009) was such a "quiet killer" as was said in this article:
https://www.statnews.com/2019/06/11/...0-years-later/
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 10:34 am
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My own thought, there are 2 factors that drive the hysteria:

Fear & politics
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 10:43 am
  #734  
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Originally Posted by stimpy
Actually they don't. Not nearly enough. Here is one example... https://www.wsj.com/articles/europea...on-11584382483
If I'm not mistaken an Allowance for Loan Loss is required by federal regulators for banks and credit unions in the United States. I doubt state regulators aren't following similar guidelines. Are the reserves adequate? Probably not in an environment of extreme defaults. Maybe the formulas will be adjusted after this event concludes.
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Old Mar 17, 2020, 10:43 am
  #735  
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Originally Posted by allset2travel
My own thought, there are 2 factors that drive the hysteria:

Fear & politics

Dont forget disease and death.
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